How Much Rain?

Here is just a very quick post of the latest official precipitation forecast from HPC and the high resolution models from NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction). I will also post the official grid forecast for Harrisburg, PA  First, the QPF map which has been nudged westward by about 50 miles from the last issuance 12 hours ago.

And here are the high resolution graphics from the NAM and the WRF models.  This is basically created by a model depicting how the radar returns will appear for a 48 hour period and then a mosaic of all the time periods are superimposed to create this graphic.  Note the sharp gradient along the spine of the Appalachians through PA.  Here is the NAM.

And here is the WRF.

Lastly, the official text forecast for Harrisburg.  This is the NWS product with which many of you are quite familiar......

Today: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Northeast wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 68. Breezy, with a north wind between 16 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then showers likely. High near 76. Windy, with a northwest wind between 23 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.

But compare this forecast for say my meteorological buddy in Palmyra....a substantial difference!

Today: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Northeast wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 68. Windy, with a north wind 16 to 19 mph increasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a slight chance of showers. High near 75. Windy, with a northwest wind between 25 and 33 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Northwest wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Wind will be an issue, but rainfall will spike the streams like the Swatara for those of you with interests along the Swatty.  Once we get actual precip obs, I'll post some stream forecasts for our immediate area.  It will take a few days for the Susquehanna to spike at Harrisburg as the runoff works its way southward from NE PA and New York state.

Have a great Saturday.....

Smitty

AA:  1-3 inches of rain likely from late Saturday through midday Sunday.  Gusty and damaging winds likely with the saturated ground and full foliage trees.  Uproots will be widespread especially in the eastern sections of our immediate area.

Latest Irene Data

Here are several graphics for your Friday evening perusal.  The first is the one I've been showing you all along and that is the numerous models that try to pinpoint the exact track of the eye of the storm or the center part of the circulation.  Note how they are in VERY GOOD agreement and take a track that is parallel to the coast.

And here is the intensity guidance.  Note that the modeling is keeping a strong Cat 1 or a weak Cat 2 storm.  Do not get fooled by only a category 1 rating as this will have very strong wind gusts far from the center of the storm.  This means that we may actually see gale force gusts for maybe an 8-12 hour period even though this storm will be accelerating as once it gets up to our latitude.  Here are the intensity modeling solutions.

And now the global models that are able to see this storm as a large pocket of warm, humid air and how it will interact with the upper atmospheric winds and steering currents along with land/ocean interactions and temp/pressure gradients.  It is actually an advantage this storm is so large in areal coverage so as to the global models are able to better solve the equations and create solutions as to where this monster will travel.  Here is the GFS model.  What you can't see is that this latest run takes the center of the storm literally parallel to the coast and then comes onshore right at NYC!

And here is the Euro.  It keeps the storm's path slightly inland, but its track too parallels the coastline.



I believe the effects here in central PA will be heavy windswept rains along with numerous damaging wind gusts.  I will keep my outlook of about 1-3 inches of rain, but again totals should be very asymmetric in eastern PA.  Get under a heavy band, receive 1-2 inches of rain per hour!  There should be a rather sharp cutoff of the heaviest precip towards the west and places from the Allegheny Front westward should receive little if any rainfall.  But even places like Altoona and State College could receive an inch of rain if a renegade band holds together far from the central circulation of Irene.  There is also a weak upper level high pressure over eastern Canada that will force some of the bands further westward than would otherwise normally occur. Here is the official forecast map for Sunday morning.  Thankfully, we don't see a 978 mb Cat 1 hurricane over AC, NJ everyday!  Pretty wild map....don't ya think?

So whatever your plans this weekend, keep apprised to the status of Irene.  I believe this will be a most disruptive storm for much of the population within 200 miles of the coast!  It is quite the blow!

IR satellite view of Irene....

And I'll leave you with the evacuation map of NYC!  To the left are the 3 zones of impact.  Zone A is now ordered to evacuate and potentially Zone B and C will be ordered as well.  It's of interest to me that the Aqueduct Racetrack is an evacuation center....$2 exacta Box 2,3,4!

Have a great week's end!  And remember, I like to hear your wx obs and experiences from this or any unique wx adventure you might encounter.

Smitty

AA:  Not much has changed from this morning.  Just some good graphics and if you're in NYC, you might be asked to evacuate to the Big A in NY City's Jamaica!

A Good Rainfall Graphic

Here it is....

Have a good weekend and any and all wx obs are greatly appreciated.  I am an info junkie!

Smitty

AA:  None needed....look at the pic!

Two Extremes of the Modeling

The HWRF and the GFDL are essentially at the two extremes of farthest east and farthest west with the upcoming hurricane track.  Most of the modeling is returning to a consensus path that I suspected last evening, that being a path adjacent to the coast.  Below is the latest updates of the models:

Below is the western edge of the guidance as depicted by the GFDL.  Note the eye of the storm is essentially over Lancaster County!

And now here is the eastern edge of the guidance as modeled by the HWRF.

I believe the truth lies somewhere in between, probably in a devastating paralleling the coast and/or cutting over the Delmarva at points.  The rain for us here in the Harrisburg area should arrive in the form of showers by late Saturday afternoon, then the storms and squally rains will arrive in earnest in the darkness of Saturday night.  Here is the the official precip forecast from the NWS at HPC.

I believe that is a fairly good representation of the rainfall totals we will see with a coastal track of Irene.  Expect between 1-3 inches of rain across our area with a few wind gusts over 40 mph.  That is what i believe will occur.  Sure, the 2 inch range is quite large.  However, hurricanes are obviously convective in nature, and if a specific locale finds itself under a band for a prolonged period, then 3 inches could easily occur.  And it's not necessarily true that the heaviest rain will be in our eastern sections, but it is more likely the farther east you go, say like Lebanon or Berks or Lancaster, or Chester Counties, you are more likely to get greater precip than western Cumberland, Franklin and Fulton Counties.  Here are the current watches & warnings in our immediate region.



As always, keep in tune, I'm in tune and I'm going to tune right into you...sorry, I digress!

Have a good Friday!

Smitty

AA:  Squally rains Saturday night into Sunday midday as Irene moves up to our east along the coast.

GFDL Tracks Eye Over Lancaster PA

Yeah, I said that right!  As we get closer to the Saturday night-Monday morning time frame, it seems that the models are now trying to hone in onto every small detail and develop a solution that pinpoints the storm's exact track. 

The global models still keep then storm out just off the coast then move inland around NYC and up into eastern NY or New England.  Whatever that case might be, it will be a most damaging and disruptive storm and one that will sadly lead to loss of life and great loss of property.  With that said, let's look at some of the modeling specifics.  First the GFDL that tracks Irene literally right up the Chesapeake Bay and nearly up the Susquehanna River into NY and southern Canada.  Here is the position of the storm at 8 pm Sunday evening.  Note the 90+ knot winds that encompass the entire Susquehanna River Valley.  That would be ugly for us here in central PA!

Here is the HWRF for 12 hours earlier with the eye still over the ocean at about our latitude.  If I were a betting man, this is what I believe will occur as the storm will seek the path of lowest pressure and that should be along the dying frontal boundary along with the warmer ocean water.  This is just a totally devastating track for the beaches along the east coast and complete total inundation along low lying areas of the coastal communities.  UGLY doesn't even cut it!  This is a most formidable situation.  With high tides around 12:00 noon Sunday along the Jersey beaches, this is a grave situation for coastal flooding with the model below.  Strong onshore winds piling the the water with the help of the incoming tide will lead to historic type flooding in these coastal communities!  I hate to say that, but that is how I see it, in my humble opinion.

Here is the tide chart for central NJ at Beach Haven Crest in Little Egg Harbor behind LBI.  The high tide is at 9:54 am.  The storm's position above nearly corresponds at almost the same time as high tide for central NJ.  Not good!  The only higher tide is at 10 pm Sunday night, but by then the damage will have been done.

Just stay tuned for any quick jaunts in the path of the storm.  Again, I believe this storm will tend to stay over the ocean as most storms want to do this along the natural baroclinicity of the atmosphere.  Hurricanes are creatures of their own, however.  But once to the middle latitudes, larger scale global synoptic forces tend to take over, and I believe the storm will hug the coast.  Once to NY, it will come inland.  This will be a massive disruption along the east coast and the only thing that could have made this worse is if it were Labor Day Weekend!  I'll leave you with one more graphic and that is the GFS depiction for Sunday at 2 pm.  This is from the 12Z run.

I'll try to update once again early tomorrow morning......Go PA Beech Creek Little League!

Have a good Friday and get things together for what might be one heckuva storm this weekend, especially in the eastern part of our state.

Smitty

AA:  Irene will be a major storm even for us here in south central PA!

Coastal Flooding Will Be A Real Concern

Above is the tide chart for Lewes, DE for the next 4 days.  The times are Eastern Daylight Time.  With the hurricane the size and strength of Irene, coastal flooding will be a major concern with the approach of the storm due to the onshore winds and the piling of water against the coast.  Here is the GFS image for 2 am Sunday morning.

The tide is out and low at 2 am Sunday in Lewes, DE; however, as Irene moves up the coast and with the rising tide that is higher than normal due to the New Moon Phase, there could be (and probably will be) some large scale coastal flooding in the Delmarva area, especially if Irene is slowed to any extent.

I wish I could compare more shore points this morning you, but I know there is a vested interest in that particular locale.  This is a classic case of the hurricane searching the lowest pressure as to where to move.  And that lowest pressure will be created by an atmospheric weakness thanks to today's cold front that will stall once it is off the coast Saturday.  That will be the highway for which the storm can drive if you will....Below is the current radar of the associated storms that will affect us here today in central PA.

On a lighter note, I read where there was a head count of only 300+ people at the 4 pm opener of the impromptu opening game of the doubleheader between the Marlins and the Reds.  The teams scheduled this doubleheader due to the threatening Irene.  A whooping 300 or so paid patrons to watch the Marlins-Reds...wow!  The lowest attendance record for all-time MLB is 653 when the Oakland As were a dismal 54-108. 34 GB the California Angels!  April 17, 1979.  Wow!

Enjoy your Thursday...

Smitty

AA:  A coastal flooding scenario discussed and storms today.  Very low attendance at Reds-Marlins opener yesterday.

Irene To Be Remembered for Years To Come

If this storm pans out the  way I believe it will and what the modeling is now suggesting in a very consistent manner, this storm will be one for the ages.  I've always heard people refer to Hazel (1954), Camille (1969), and certainly remember Hugo (1989), and Andrew (1992), and most recently Katrina (2005), and Irene will earn her name into these annals as an equal with these infamous storms.  I will post just 4 maps so as to not overload the reader.  The first 2 are the wind fields as suggested by 2 outstanding hurricane models; the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting).  You can essentially ascertain the progged track from the winds fields shown in the 2 models below.  First, the GFDL model....a bit closer to the coast and at times onshore.

And now the HWRF.  Note the larger wind field, but strongest winds remain closest to the core.  There is a strong gradient as to the diminishing of the winds the further one ventures from the center of the storm.  The GFDL actually has hurricane force winds reaching into our immediate vicinity of south central PA!

Now onto the closeup of the storm.  First the GFDL's depiction.  These are the winds at about 2,000' and the lower left is the sea surface temps in Celsius.  Keep in mind, the wind speeds that are indicated are in knots.  To convert, 1 knot = 1.15 mph or 100 knots is 115 mph.

Here is the HWRF progged position for Sunday morning.  The way to read the map below is we are looking at 100 knot ONSHORE winds say at LBI, NJ and 100 knot winds OFFSHORE at say Wildwood, NJ.  If this would verify, this will be a multi-billion dollar insurance nightmare!  And we haven't even gotten to New England yet!

Onto a lighter note, with the start of school and back to the semi-real world for me, these blogs do take some time so they will be fewer and farther in between.  Now I'm not so vain as to think that everyone wants to know what Smitty thinks about this wx situation or that wx situation, but I am humbled and honored that some of you do like to read my opinions.  So, for what it is worth, I will from time to time, post my very brief thoughts on Twitter if any would like to follow.  This is coming from a guy who would "NEVER, I WILL NEVER OWN A CELL PHONE!!"  Well, I've seen the advantage of the use of technology and Twitter is also pretty neat if you are an info junkie like me to some extent.  The more data the better!  That's my mantra.  So if you Twitter, and please excuse me, but I'm just learning that technology, you can find me at SmittysSynopsis if you even care.  And while you look for me on Twitter, look for this as well:  CDAthletics.  The CD AD Mr. J. Confer keeps those who want to be informed about all things sports at CDHS and I have found it very useful and informative.  Here are some of the tweets from the last week for CD Athletics:

So get a Twitter account and follow CD Athletics and if the mood strikes, my random thoughts about not only the wx, but data that is pertinent to me and my "no-life"!  Like, maybe I'll share that today marks the day 22 years ago in 1989  the greatest all-time hits leader in baseball was banned from baseball for life!  I always liked how Pete Rose played the game!  I just did!  Even when he was a member of the hated Big Red Machine!  But Pete Rose is now banned from MLB for life as a result of his agreement with then commissioner Bart Giamatti.  Hard to believe that was 22 years ago today!

Now off to watch the Phillies sweep those AAA Mets!  Enjoy what remains of your Wednesday and see many of you tomorrow!

Smitty

AA:  One wicked storm (major Hurricane Irene) for this upcoming weekend along the east coast of the USA.  Get a Twitter account and follow CD Athletics and me if you want since Tweets are limited to 140 characters and I must be short and succinct when using that.  It was 22 years ago Pete Rose was banned from baseball!

Euro's Idea on Irene

Just 2 very brief maps before I retire for the day.  This is now becoming even clearer that this will be one UGLY storm from the Carolinas northward to Maine and through NB and NS!  For those of you who remember Gloria in 1985, this will be worse!  OCMD lost 1/4 of its boardwalk in Gloria.  The first map is the winds at 1 mile above the surface.  With gusts at the surface, there will be hurricane force winds felt in eastern PA to be sure.

This second map is a thickness map for Sunday morning at 8am.  What I want you to see is simply the location of the surface storm essentially over the southern Delmarva.  This is an absolutely horrible position for those with coastal interests in the Delmarva and points in southern NJ.  24 hours later Long Island, NY will be ground zero for Irene's wrath.  Unfortunately, this looks to be one for the record books!  Insurance claims will be in the BILLIONS of dollars for this storm!  More tomorrow.

Oh...and before I check out, here is a link for the earthquake data if it strikes anyones' fancy.  I did not feel anything other than my mower bouncing over the lawn nor did Ziggy and Zola awake from the their Dog Days siesta!

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/se082311a.php

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  Irene is for real.  This will be a major hurricane!  Its effects will be felt most severely in the infamous I-95 corridor and 50 miles either side give or take.

Irene's Track Mimicing Floyd's

It appears to me that Irene will be a force to be reckoned with late this week and weekend here along the east coast of the USA.  Based on the larger scale synoptic pattern of the long waves of the upper atmosphere, Irene will take a track very similar to Hurricane Floyd of 1999.  Floyd is what gave Philly its rainiest month on record until this current month where 13.00" or rain has fallen thus far with 10 days remaining.  The all-time Philly precip record might be untouchable in a millenia if Irene delivers what I believe could be a season's worth of rainfall in 24 hours!  Below is Hurricane Floyd's track from September 13-18, 1999.

When looking at the track above, I personally feel that Irene will track to the left or west of the drawn track above.  Here is a neat IR satellite image of Floyd once into the Mid-Atlantic States.  Landfall was very close to Wilmington, NC.

NC did receive the brunt of the rainfall with this tropical system.  The map below shows why 35 people alone in NC lost their lives due to flash flooding. There are some very impressive totals in the data below.  Note the very sharp cut-off both to the east and the west of the track of the storm.

 The map below shows the overall impact of precipitation all up and down the east coast.  There was some serious flooding in the suburbs of Philly with the rains of Floyd.  If memory serves me correctly, the CDSD was closed the day after Floyd passed through not due to flooding, but due to a widespread loss of power across the region.  This storm packed quite a punch!

But before we have to contend with Irene, enjoy the next couple of days with brilliant sunshine interrupted by majestic cumulus, warm and dry air, and gentle to at times fresh breezes from the NW compliments of a large area of high pressure that has migrated down from O Canada.  The map below is for Tuesday morning where some areas just north of Harrisburg could most certainly be down in the upper 40s with clear skies and light winds and 10.5 hours of the sun hidden below our horizon leading to a net loss of radiation from the earth's surface.

I heard one that made me laugh this morning during a weather discussion on the radio.  The DJ asked is Irene actually would make it to Japan, would its name change to Eileen?  Now I know that's not right, but it is funny and it made me think of this......enjoy!

Enjoy this pristine spell of weather!

Smitty

AA:  Continuing to monitor the path and evolution of Irene.  beautiful weather the next couple of days.  It's only a few short days until we can talk face to face about the weather and fantasy baseball!

A Tropical Threat and Then an Autumnal Preview

It is now becoming clear that Hurricane Irene will have a major impact along the eastern seaboard late this upcoming week and weekend.  All of the modeling is in good agreement as to where this tropical system will move in the next 3-5 days.  It appears that Irene will stay out over the ocean east of FL and make landfall somewhere near the SC-GA border.  If this is the case, the beaches of SC will be ravaged with strong surf and a powerful surge of ocean water.  Here is a quick glance at the modeling of the movement of soon to be Hurricane Irene.

What is not as clear is how strong will Irene become.  This is a tricky call as the storm will be traveling over the rather large island of Hispaniola.  However, what should trump that factor is that the atmosphere is in near perfect conditions to ventilate the upwardly moving air and thus allow the storm to strengthen.  Ocean water temps are sufficiently warm as well to support rapid intensification. Here are the models' depictions of how the storm will strengthen.

A close-up IR image shows that it does have some ways to go to get better organized.  This is the most recent IR of TS Irene as of this writing.

And a wider view to get one's perspective of proximity to the islands and the mainland US.

Once the hurricane makes landfall, it will then continue to wreak havoc up the east coast and create flooding rains along and to the east of its path.  Again, here in our area of south central PA, and this is way too early to say for certain, it appears that next Sunday may feature windswept rains and embedded severe thunderstorms as Irene moves her "energy blob" poleward.  Here is the GFS depiction of the location of the storm next Sunday evening.

After the storm makes landfall somewhere near the SC-GA border as seen below.

Th

Then looking out into the distant future, it appears polar air masses will be on the move as we progress from a summertime pattern into more of an early autumn pattern.  Once Irene passes, a blast of much cooler air will invade the Mid-Atlantic where daytime temps will struggle to reach 70F on the Thursday prior to Labor Day.  We will then have a "dirty" warm up with showers accompanying the attempt of warm and humid air to re-invade for the Labor Day weekend.  However, as the GFS indicates, a very vigorous cold front will push across the state and usher in a true blast of autumnal air for the first week of September!  Look below...the 5C isotherm at 850 mb would support temps only in the mid 60s for this time of year. That is actually cross-polar flow right into New England.  I'll believe that when I see it....but the Euro is hinting at the same as well.

In closing, I can't help but wonder what the heck the global financial markets will do this upcoming week?!?!  With the burdensome regulations on business and industry coming out of DC, companies are at a loss as to whether hire or shift their operations to more friendly corporate jurisdictions in order to improve their balance sheets.  Some have suggested that eliminating the repatriation tax would allow these corporations to bring their monies back to the US.   Opponents (Dems) to this idea say that companies would only buy back their own stock or pay out the funds in dividends but not really hire more Americans.  I say so what!  If stocks would be repurchased or dividends increased, that would help the market and thus all Americans!  As many of us know, Wall Street is now Main Street as many retirement funds and 401Ks are invested in financial securities.  A rising tide lifts all ships!  And we sure could use more of this type of "stimulus".  It's no wonder that the polls are at an all-time low for the President's handling of the economy.....

Enjoy the remainder of the limited summer.

Smitty

AA:  Watching Irene move up the east coast this week and deliver heavy rains in our area next Sunday?  Then some early fall-like temps for last week of August and beginning of September.  Labor Day looks quite cool from this far out......