No Change From Last Evening

The high resolution modeling is seeing no real differences from late last evening to this early Friday morning.  Below is the total event from the storm in terms of accumulated precipitation, the bulk of which will fall as snow around Harrisburg.  Again, some pinging sleet pellets will greet your awakening Saturday morning, but a general 15:1 snowfall should be/have fallen during the very early part of Saturday.  The map shows a general 5-7" coverage around KMDT.  Note the enhancement over the mountains of western MD and the Laurel Highlands of PA.

I will show this...one of my favorite quick hitters for info; the ensemble plumes.  It is interesting to note that the snow/ice line will be very close to our location.  To be sure, temps will remain below freezing at least until noon Saturday, so plain rain, in my opinion, is out of the question.  It is just how much freezing rain and sleet will mix in at KMDT.  I have both Lancaster's and Harrisburg's plumes from the GFS ensembles.  Note the greater number of blue lines at Harrisburg indicating a "snowier" event whereas the increased number of red lines indicating a greater threat of ice in the southern part of York and Lancaster Counties.

Here is KMDT...

And here is KLNS...

In any case, just be cautious tomorrow morning on any travels.  Conditions will improve by afternoon.  I will leave y'all with this from NASA news; a short 3 minute clip about some things you read on here from time to time.  Although somewhat biased warm (you must remember where one gets their funding!), I feel it is done rather objectively to discuss the CYCLICAL nature of climate on this wonderful earth!

Have a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  A nice moderate early weekend winter event (mostly snow) with a general 4-5" snowfall....some places your way will top 6"!

Saturday Morning Snow Update

The 00Z NAM just came in and I really don't have too many changes.  What will this storm be?  Mostly snow with sleet pings near the end Saturday morning...finally tapering off to freezing drizzle by noon Saturday.  Temps during the snow part of the storm will be in the low 20s in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.  The max temp will struggle to get to 35ºF Saturday afternoon during clean-up.  How much?  It now appears as if 3-5" is a conservative prediction.  I believe a few 6"+ will be reported in the Harrisburg area.  It is most certainly a PLOWABLE storm and by NO MEANS is this a crippling storm!  Saturday morning should a "Go-Slow" and not a "Don't-Go" kind of morning.  Or better yet, just brew a few extra cups of your favorite potation (don't make it potent before noon!...but it will be afternoon somewhere so I am told) and enjoy the winter scene which we've sorely lacked this winter!  Here is the NAM's total snow amounts when all is said and done.

I know there is no scale...it is off of my screen-shot...the dark blue is ~5", the purples ~8".  This will be a healthy snow event...no doubt!  Note once the wave of low pressure is able to access Atlantic moisture, snowfall increases towards the coast...although some of that will fall in the form of plain rain on the coastal plain.

The heaviest snow will fall in the pre-dawn hours as shown below...the map below is for the 3 hrs ending at 4am...

And the temps at 7 am sunrise temps...clearly, the cold air damming signature is present at the surface of the earth!

The snow and light freezing drizzle will pull away by noon as shown here...this is for the 3 hours ending at 1 pm...

Clean off surfaces you want cleared as Sunday morning temps will be very cold with the fresh snowfall.  As we all know, cold breeds more just like winning breeds more winning!  Temps will bottom in the low teens Sunday morning under a clear sky and light winds.

But by Sunday afternoon, the winds will begin to advect warmer air from the south and west so by Monday, we are looking at temps to be nearly 10 above normal...or max temps in the 40s!  Again, look up in AK...when our 49th state is cold, we are NOT!

Most of next week will feature above normal temps...but I show you this as a tease for later posts...look at what is lurking for February!  We might just have an American Pie kinda February!  Nothing like watching the Super Bowl when the temps outside are brutally cold!  The modeling is hinting at it...

For those of you not familiar with Don McLean reference above...sit back and enjoy this throwback!

Have a great weekend...and enjoy this snowfall...the only real snowfall for this January it now appears!

Smitty

AA:  Snow upon waking Saturday; all but a distant memory by Tuesday/Wednesday!  Much above normal by end of next week...again!

Predict the High; Predict the Snow

This was a lesson learned years ago about the synoptics of a wx map in the northeastern USA.  If a large Arctic High Pressure system ridges north across southern O Canada and new England, then overrunning precip in the winter months will often fall in the form of snow if taking the "proper" track.  Well, just one graphic in this quick update and that is from our modelers to the north who should have a fair understanding of Arctic cold!  The Canadian model keeps our entire precip event in the form of the fluffy white stuff and the closest any icing is in nearer the Mason-Dixon Line.  It is a trend that I have been monitoring today as the all of the models have been trending COLDER for this winter wx event.  Here is the 7 am map from the Canadian model for this Saturday morning...

That 1029 mb High over Quebec is supporting sub-zero temps and extremely dry air.  A strong cold air damming wedge will be funneled down east of the mountains so if any precip does changeover, it now appears that sleet and frz rain will be the predominant types and not plain rain.  Roads will improve later Saturday as the storm pulls off to the east.  The snow should start around midnight Friday and last for ~12 hrs; the heaviest falling between 5 am-9 am Saturday morning.
Enjoy your Thursday evening.....

Smitty

AA:  Looking at our 1st snow of the true winter season this Saturday morning...

First January "Real" Snow

Our 1st "real" snow will be experienced this Friday overnight into early Saturday morning.  It's now beginning to appear that the precip will begin as snow and continue as snow until the warm air aloft gets pulled over the cold surface temps which will create a period of sleet/freezing rain prior to the precip departing.  Here is the GFS accumulated snowfall map for Saturday morning...

It appears that we will get about a 2-4" snowfall prior to the changeover Saturday mid-morning.  My fear is that the low level cold air will hang tough creating a longer period of frz rain as the storm departs.  This "storm" will not be a classic winter storm for us in any sense...but it is one of these events that traverse the entire country.  You can clearly see its path across the northern tier of the US above.  The little bit of flurries we will see Thursday evening is associated with a weak clipper that will bring in colder air to set the stage for our "moderate" event.  Saturday morning will be a GO SLOW and not a DON'T GO morning...Below, the GFS has the rain-snow line (dark black line) right over us during Saturday morning...

OK...gotta go....have a good Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  Brief flurry Thursday evening sets the stage for Saturday early morning snow event changing to ice and maybe just end as plain ol' rain!  Get up here for lunch today!

A Snowless January

, Well, the possibility exists!  In fact, it is a very real possibility as I work my way through the medium range modeling.  However, prior to doing so, there is one very prominent proverbial "fly in the ointment" for this Friday night into Saturday morning time frame.  The GFS and to a minor extent, the ECMWF, create a small wave of low pressure that will erode the cold air that will be in place later this week.  The GFS keeps the wave to our south; however, as many of you are aware, the GFS will correct a bit to the north and if modeled correctly, we could see ~0.5" of liquid falling all as snow.  This would be a small plowable storm for the beginning of our upcoming weekend.  However, if you didn't feel like plowing or shoveling, you would not need to do so as mother nature thanks to the +NAO and +AO will melt away any evidence of winter's presence by early next week.  Here is the potential winter wx event for this Friday night into early Saturday morning...

One thing to note on the above map is that the Cascades will be getting hammered with snowfall this week and into next week as well.  The Pac NW and the CA Sierra do need to get their "money in the bank" snowfall when the getting is good!  Presently, the Sierra, like all of the US is hurting for snow pack.

Here is the snow cover for the entire US...This is much greater coverage than last Friday as the lake effect machine kicked in over the weekend.  If I post later this week, we will note how much the snow will have retreated by this upcoming weekend as the snow depth is minimal in IN, OH, IL, and western PA.

But next week and the week after look to be warming considerably after this week.  Here is the GFS ensembles for North America in terms of probability of above normal warmth for the upcoming period 2 weeks hence.

As long as there is a strong AK temp minima, there will be no way to get cold and snow to the eastern part of North America, especially here in the Mid Atlantic!  That map above is simply uuuuugh for any winter wx enthusiasts here in our neck of the woods!  The map below shows the 7 day running mean of temps for the period ending one week from today.  Look at that 20+ degree anomaly in the deep south!  Now this is an average of the daily means over a 7 day period ending next Monday. 

Look at the same stat for the 7 day period ending next Thursday, the 26th of Jan!  Wow!  The sled dogs in MN won't know what in the world is going on!  They'll probably have a doggie convention and blame the anomalous warmth on global warming!  On thing for certain; this type of warmth in January will not help the depressed Nat Gas prices here in the states.  With that in mind, one better try to make some money in the oil and oil services as opposed to companies with large exposure to strictly natural gas.  Remember my disclaimer....thank you!

In closing, what a sports weekend for local high school athletes and some interesting professional results as well!   The CD wrestling team put on a clinic in their own duals.  In doing so, this A1 program has earned the state record for consecutive wins in dual matches, now at 82 and counting.  It is a real pleasure to witness these wrestlers' endeavors; some with technical skill, some with brute strength, some with shear heart...all with desire!  Then, at the Villa BB tourney at CDHS, the nightcap proved just how dominating a player Devon Thomas can be.  It certainly helps that he has an incredibly strong supporting cast, but when he focuses strictly on the game and ONLY THE GAME, he is capable of single handily taking control of a high school game with his size and athleticism.  If he continues to maintain focus, the CD boys will be a tough "out" in any tourney they are "in"!  And in the professional ranks, the 49ers-Saints game was certainly entertaining, but the football school was taught by the NY Giants!  A power running game and a staunch defense proved too much for the Pack from GB!  Being an Eagles fan, it is difficult to root for the Giants; however, I love their style of physical football.  Control the game by running the rock and being fundamentally sound defensively!  These ingredients almost always win at ALL levels of football!  I do believe that the Super bowl will be the 49ers-Giants match up next weekend.  It should be a good defensive heavyweight game.  I like the Giants for what it is worth at this point....a cold rain looks to be in the cards for SF next weekend...

Take the Giants and Under in the potential quagmire...

Have a good week!

Smitty

AA:  After a rainy Tuesday, temps will again be January-like.  Then a major warm up for the next 2 weeks.  Could have a little snow Friday night into Saturday, but all will be melted once again by early next week.  Congrats on your efforts in the CD wrestling program!  I like the Giants in the NFC Championship game....you?