Man Was I Wrong!

When I look at the guidance and the modeling for both the short term and the long range, I try to get a feel for how the sensible weather will manifest itself in that particular period.  Yesterday, and for TWO days, the modeling depicted a fairly unsettled Friday AND Sunday.  And to the disagreement of the water vapor loop I included yesterday, there was a slug of dry air aimed right at PA.  The models and the SIM RADAR said storms; the actual data/obs from the water vapor loop said "I will suppress convection!".  When trying to ascertain what the weather will be like in the short term, one must use both actual obs and the guidance.  The guidance was horrible for yesterday....again for TWO consecutive days.  So what does the actual obs say now?  Below is the water vapor pic for Saturday morning.

What y'all can't see is the looping of this snapshot.  Believe me, the big blob of white (water vapor) is moving towards PA for today and this afternoon.  The bulk of it will get suppressed by the strong mid level winds moving SE from Ontario.  By Sunday, we are looking at much drier air in the mid-levels once again which should support mostly sunny skies for the bulk of the daylight hours.....which is about 15 now as we approach the solstice!  Anyone feel they're leaning by 23.5 degrees from the vertical?  Just wondering....Now, below is the current radio detection and ranging image known to most as RADAR!

Note also the dry air still in place over the desert SW!  But the above image shows the complex of storms that will move east today and could spawn a few storms in our area by afternoon, but the bulk of this activity will stay south of PA.  The storm complex that is just off the shot in NE and KS will be our wx maker for Monday as Monday appears to be a rather cloudy and damp day with numerous showers and storms in/around PA.  The 4 frame graphic below shows the following in a clockwise fashion starting in the upper left:  The rain cooled air temps, some vigorous storms dropping much rain in 3 hr time, the total rainfall since Saturday morning, and the convergent winds right over PA...or a boundary for instability.

In summary, some afternoon storms today, a fairly nice day for Pop, and a fairly wet Monday.  That's what it look like from this chair.  You know, I hate being wrong about the wx....I really do.  Many people ask me my opinion about the weather.......I just simply try to explain what might occur based on past experiences and the guidance that master scientists develop for many to interpret.  It has always made me appreciate nature and the sometimes awesome power of nature.  As for trying to predict the wx, that is many times O so very,very humbling.....just like the last 2 days.  The wx was anything but what I thought would transpire.  Oh well.....I'll get back on the horse and try to keep y'all in the loop as to what MIGHT happen with the weather.  Maybe I was predisposed this past week with my youngest attending OCMD for the rite of passage known as Senior Week.  Or maybe I just had my head up my butt as some of you will contest!  No excuses, I do aim to please and be accurate!

Have a good week's end and remember to honor Pop on Sunday....and everyday for that matter!

Smitty



AA: Some storms Saturday afternoon, a fairly nice Father's Day, (watch the Yankees lose at Wrigley for the Sunday night ESPN game), and a soggy Monday with storms approaching by afternoon.

Unsettled Through the Weekend and Into Early Next Week

The Infrared (IR) satellite pic loop above shows clearly an area of disturbed weather in the Midwest and upper plains while the dearth of moisture and clouds persists across the desert SW USA.  We here in PA are still under a NW flow and a boundary of warm humid air to our SW is bucking up against the cooler and drier air still entrenched to our northeast.  You can also see the clouds that moved through overnight and delivered 0.68" of rain to our humble abode here in Etters, PA.  That boundary is why we are looking at a period of unsettled weather for the foreseeable future.  Friday could end up soggy especially in the pm when the strong June sun's effects will help to destabilize the atmosphere and boil up a shower or three.  Even through the cloud deck, the sun's heating will create some instability and ultimately some showers and storms.  By the way, with both the video clips above and below, just keep hitting play to have them re-loop. 

The simulated radar shown above clearly indicates the modeling believes that some showers and thundershowers will boil up this afternoon.  At the end of the loop, what awaits for Sunday is this cluster of disturbed weather that could possibly pass to our south for Father's Day, but I believe that with the boundary so close to our area, we will still see numerous showers and thundershowers in/around the Harrisburg area the day we celebrate pop!

As for next week, the heat and humidity will build once again as a trough digging from Canada will allow ridging to build in the east.  Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the warmest days next week.  Here is a snapshot of the guidance for next Wednesday indicating above normal temps for our region.

This cold air that is coming gangbusters down the plains will touch off some severe wx early next week in the northern plains.  So Craig, lets just say places like Waterloo, IA and Albert Lea, MN should be on the lookout to spot some funnel cloud activity on Monday of next week. 

Speaking of Albert Lee, the guitarist, not the town....note the spelling...I'll leave y'all with this ditty from one of my favorite blues guitarists!  Albert Lee is playing rhythm and although very talented is not the favorite to whom I am referring; we all know who is playin' lead....I hope!

Have a good Friday and a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Showers Friday and Sunday....getting warmer and more humid next week.  Good tune attached at the end.

Friday Could be a Tad Stormy

Of course we can't have the pristine beautiful weather we just experienced for my 1st OFFICIAL DAY OF SUMMER VACATION! But weather is weather and Friday's may be a bit on the loud side at times.  The NWS Storms Prediction Unit has the areas to our south under the slight risk area for severe wx, but with this vigorous shortwave passing directly over PA, we may see some rather feisty storms pop up during the max heating of the day....even though clouds will rule the roost.  The map below shows the 500 mb vort max passing right through PA!

The graphic below shows the precip that has fallen in total over the last half year.  You can clearly see 2 things:  1.  The abundance of rain over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and up into the NE, and 2. The total lack of rain over the SW USA.  This is what has led to the tinder dry conditions in AZ, NM, and West TX and is shown clearly in this rainfall analysis from the past half year.  Hurricanes this year will be drought busters, especially if they can deliver the goods to west TX, and help infuse humidity to create orographic thunderstorms in the southern Rockies!  Just quite an interesting analysis....don't cha think?

And coupled with the graphic above, drought is widespread in that region of the country.  With apologies to Marty Robbins....Out in that west TX town of El Paso, I fell in love with much needed thunderstorms.  Nighttime would find me in Rosa's cantina, Music would play and the clouds would swirl.....sorry

As for next week, a piece of heat is forecast to break away from the hellish conditions of the desert SW over the last couple of weeks.  Dallas will actually stay below 90ºF I do believe one or two days next week as the heat is split towards the east to some minimal extent and back westward to a greater extent.  The map below shows the temps at 850 mb and clearly depicts a piece of the hot air being moved eastward through mid week.  This means temps will become hot and humidity will rise back to mid summer levels by the middle of next week.  Good for opening a swimming pool from what I understand!

As for further out into the misty distant future, the GFS operational is at odds with its own ensembles.  I am rooting for the operational to score a coup; however, most other global guidance suggests that we are looking at some heat again into the early weeks of July.  This should be nothing too far above normal, but most global signaling is suggesting heat to stay once to July.  That is a very TEPID call!  The white line shows the jet stream position from the primary model where the thinner red lines are the ensemble jet stream positions.

In closing, I read a rather unique trivial statistic that piqued my interest.  There have only been 3 instances in the last 35 years in the 4 major sports in North America where a team won a Game 7 on the road to win the world championship!  Last night the Boston Bruins won their Game 7 in Vancouver to earn the right to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup!  Two years prior, the Pittsburgh Penguins paraded around "The Joe" getting their names engraved into infamy.  The 3rd instance occurred back in 1979 (I was still in High School!) when "Pops" and his family went to Memorial Stadium on Loch Raven Blvd and 33rd St in Baltimore to claim Game 7 of the World Series!  The winning pitcher and saving pitchers both had ties to the team that won the world series next year!  The winning pitcher was one Grant Jackson with the save going to Teke who earned a 5 out save for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I just found all of that very interesting!  Below is the MVP goalie Tim Thomas carrying the cup around Vancouver's ice.

So some weather, some sports, and some good music for those of you who hold a special place of El Paso in your hearts!

Have a GREAT summer vacation!

Smitty

AA:  Storms Friday and some more over the weekend, more so Sunday....then getting warmer by middle of next week.  A cooler air mass will invade next weekend, but heat will return for the first part of July.  Also, some sports trivia....have a good vacation buddy and enjoy the little one!

Short Waves in a Northwest Flow

Meteorologists often look for little clues as to what could be a "fly in the ointment" in an otherwise nice wx pattern.  A short wave or vorticity maximum is a progressive wave of smaller amplitude and wavelength as the more noticeable long Rosby Waves.  They move in the same direction as the basic current in which it is embedded and often induces upward vertical motion ahead of and near it. They are far more numerous than the long Rosby Waves and often disappear with height in the atmosphere.  However, their energy is often capable of producing showers and thundershowers when they pass nearby at this time of the year.  With all of that said, I've attached 2 maps of vort maxes passing near us this weekend; one Friday and one Sunday afternoon.  Note the yellow shading in the 500 mb maps below; these are areas that indicate vorticity (spin), or a short wave.  First, Friday's 500 mb prog:

 Here is Sunday evening's 500 mb prog:

 The Friday short wave has a bit more moisture to work with, so it looks to me as if showers may be numerous on Friday during the daylight hours, possibly including a rumble of thunder.

The vort max on Sunday has little moisture to work with, but I still believe we'll see some showers on Sunday as well.  Note the little kink in the isobar just to our south at the 700 mb level.  It most certainly WILL NOT be a rain out however on Sunday.

As for later next week, temps will certainly become warmer than they have been, but as both the Euro ensembles and the GFS ensembles indicate, there will be a trough to our west with a SW flow in the mid-levels coming at PA.  So warmer and moderately humid looks to be a safe bet for the middle part to the end of next week.  There could be some severe wx beginning to rear its ugly head if that "blue" anomaly comes in gangbusters early next week into the Great Lakes and Midwest region.....something to keep an eye on Craig!  OK...buddy....I'm saying severe wx (with numerous tornadoes) is likely early next week in the Midwest...and you can take that to the bank!  (Note the bank; however!)

Enjoy the beautiful evening!

Smitty

AA:  Showers likely Friday and then again a few showers on Sunday?  Becoming warmer and slightly more humid next week with a severe wx outbreak in the Midwest.

Cool, Crisp, Canadian High

That's what we have to thank for our wonderful weather for the past couple of days!  The attached snap shot shows the below shows the cool and dry air mass (black) being advected southward from our neighbors to the north.  Combining the large 1019 mb high pressure centered over Lake Huron this morning and an upper air low over the Gulf of Maine has created this beautiful flow of refreshing air!  It was actually cool last evening with gusts of this air over 20 mph from time to time.  The fans in Philly may have thought they were in San Fran watching the game in June!

The map below shows the 5 am temperature observations while the second map below shows the dew point observations at the same time.  Note the 39ºF and Mt. Washington this morning with a dew point of 36ºF!  Quite invigorating if that was your morning observation in the middle of June!  Here were the temps:

And here were the dew points:

The graphic below shows clearly how the temps have dropped precipitously over the last couple of days as compared to what we have recently been experiencing.

As most of you are aware, Jeter will be attaining a milestone in his prestigious baseball career this summer.  However, it will come a bit later than originally planned as Derek strained his calf lunging towards 1st base Monday evening.  As a result, like all baseball players do from time to time, he went on the DL.  This is his first trip to the DL since 2003!  When I read that stat, I again was amazed as most players visit that notorious list at least once a season....or so it seems!

Enjoy this most beautiful Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  It's been cool and dry...nice and refreshing.  Wednesday will be beautiful!



Two Tornado Warnings in One Spring

I have lived most of my life without ever having a Tornado Warning issued where I reside. 

Within 6 weeks, I have now had 2 tornado warnings issued for my area.  When the advisory from the NWS lists the name of your town, that is a bit disconcerting.  In today's warning event, the clouds did appear ominous upon the approach of the storm.  However, I did not believe at the time that tornadoes were of major concern as opposed to the heavy rain that was imminent.  I also observed a "hail signature" on the Doppler Radar with the approaching rain shield.  As sure as Charlie getting tossed for arguing balls and strikes, quarter sized hail arrived here in Etters for a brief period, but pea and dime sized hail fell for ~10 minutes!  This was the greatest amount of hail I observed at my abode (at least when I was able to directly observe).  My sunflowers did not do well with the gusty winds and more importantly the hail.  Within a half hour, we received just over an inch of rain.  The total amount of rain in an hour's time was 1.34"!  Thankfully, lightning was a non-issue with this severe storm.  This is a very brief (amateur) video of the hail falling from the sky....sorry, didn't film very well....obviously very, very amateur!

The rains the last few days in the Harrisburg area were tropical in nature thanks to very high dewpoints.  The map below shows the dewpoints for Sunday afternoon.  Note how the sticky air gets quickly replaced as the 2nd map shows the dewpoints for early Wednesday morning.  This will be very refreshing air compared to what we have just experienced. 

In fact, the dewpoints in the Laurel Highlands might be below freezing!  Quite dry air for this time of year.

This air is being ushered in on northwesterly winds both aloft and at the surface as the map below shows the predicted winds for Monday afternoon.

Along with drier air, much cooler air will quickly advect southeastward from the Great lakes region.  The 2 maps below depict the lows tonight and the highs Monday.

 The low to mid 70s sound awfully nice for max temps....don't ya think?

As for further down the road, it appears that a trough will dig into the western US which will allow for higher heights and warmer temps to come back into the northeast.  There is quite a bit of heat down in the SW US as evidenced by the extensive drought TX, NM, and AZ.  That heat could make a run at the east, but it should not move out of the southeast US.  That being said, we will still run temps above normal, probably through the end of June.  So enjoy the brief respite in warm temps this week.
The Euro is on the left; the GFS on the right.  Note the trough in the Rockies on both models.

In closing, the Triple Crown races are now over this spring as a long shot won the Belmont Stakes.  I played the speed horse Shackleford thinking that he might be able to open a large lead with a "speed-free' race.  However, the field remained relatively close to the pace setter and Ruler on Ice closed down the stretch and crossed the wire paying his backers $51.50 for every $2 win wager.  If you were lucky enough to have the 3-2 exacta, you were stylin' with a $928 reward!  Wow!

Enjoy your in-service days.....ugh!

Smitty

AA:  Nasty storm today just like you had Saturday evening.  Then a nice refreshing break in the heat and humidity for a few days.  Heat returns by next week.  I should've boxed my 2-3-4 in the Belmont Stakes!