Isaac to Rock Margaritaville

It looks fairly certain, that is in wx certainties, that developing and quickly strengthening hurricane Isaac will rock Key West, FL with a direct hit of a Category 1 storm some later Sunday!  Hurricane warnings are now posted for the the Florida Keys as seen in the map below...

Here is what the storm currently looks like from above...

And here are 3 models' predictions as to where it will end up once it passes through the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico...1st the Euro for Tuesday evening:

And the America's GFS depiction:

Finally, the regional higher resolution grid of the North American Model or NAM for the same time:

As you can see, there is good agreement, dare I say, excellent agreement amongst the various models!  So Pensacola, FL...beware!  The storm will continue to gather momentum and its atmospheric dynamics will continue to improve as it moves over the favorable heat laden waters of the Gulf!  The graphic below simply equates the tropical cyclone heat potential per the waters it traverses.  These Gulf waters at this time of year are ripe full of potential...needless to say!

So if you've ever visited the southern most point in the USA in Key West, imagine how it would be weather-wise Sunday evening if you were 90 miles north of Cuba!  Meanwhile, Isaac will be wasting away in Margaritaville, Key West, FL!

Enjoy your weekend...and to my colleagues...our last weekend of summer vacation!  It's a real shame that the ensembles are printing out about 0.25" of rain for late Saturday into Sunday afternoon as a pesky low will slowly grind north across the Mid-Atlantic...oh well!

Happy week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Isaac to hit Key West, FL then move up west of Florida and make a 2nd landfall somewhere near Pensacola, Florida.  Look to get a little rain here this weekend, too.

Intriguing Isaac

Well...I'm back.  Just like Mr. Kotter...and the start of school for 2012-13!  I felt compelled to add my 2 cents since everyone and their brother is opining on the ultimate path and effects of what is currently Tropical Storm Isaac.

Here is a current satellite pic of TS Isaac as seen through the infrared eyes of a wx satellite.  Note the central dense overcast (deep red near 15N) that surrounds what is trying to become an eye.

And here is the water vapor image of Isaac at the present time.  The purplish color has some very deep moisture throughout the atmosphere which allows for tremendous thunderstorms to develop and generate even more energy though the process of condensation as heat energy is released to the immediate environment in the vicinity of the physical process of the condensing water vapor into clouds!  (Latent heat of condensation).  The darker regions around the colors are actually very dry regions of the atmosphere.  So a tropical cyclone is merely a powerful region of the atmosphere that is an organized "blob" of deep moisture traversing through the tropical waters...

...and feeding off of not only the heat the condensing water vapor is supplying but also the heat from the very warm surface of the tropical oceans.  Here is an analysis of the potential heat energy of the tropical waters around the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.  Note how the gulf stream ocean current carries vast amount of heat north and east along the eastern seaboard of the US. 

The picture below shows essentially the same data but this time comparing it to "normal".  Note that the waters just east of FL are actually a bit cooler than normal whereas the Gulf is primed for tropical cyclone development based solely on sea surface temps.  Also note the anomalous warmth off the Delmarva, possibly a pre-season sign of some power nor'easters if the ocean warmth holds into the winter season!

The last couple graphics I'd like to share are both the Euro's and the GFS' take on where Isaac may end up sometime near the end of NEXT week.  First, the American GFS...

Obviously a major hit in the northeast portion of FL or along the GA-SC coast.  Now here is the Euro's prog for the same time late NEXT week.

Again, just to keep things in a global perspective, here is the wide view of the North American continent and the location of TS Isaac east of the Leeward Islands in the western Atlantic.  Also note the tropical wave that is on the heels of TS Isaac!  'Tis the season!

So where is Isaac heading?  Here are the latest runs from the numerical modeling indicating that Floridians best be advised for a potential major hit from this tropical cyclone.

However, if one uses analogs from the global atmospheric patterns of the past and what has occurred in terms of the sensible weather, it is of a major concern the the GFS ensembles have the week of Hurricane Katrina (dates in the lower right...20050829) as its 6th analog from its runs from yesterday!  Ouch!

So time will tell...as it will too with how the AL east winds up this September.  It is kinda hard to believe that as well as the Yankees have been playing this year they hold only a 4 and 5 game lead over the Rays and the Os respectively!  Here's hoping from yours truly that the Os can somehow manage to hold it together to make a legitimate run for some October baseball since my Phillies have checked out...sometime back in late April or May!  In fact, it would be very cool to see a Washington vs Baltimore World Series!  I wonder if Strasburg would pitch in Game 1 under that scenario?!?

Enjoy the end of the week...and your start of school my working colleagues!

Smitty

AA:  Watching for a potential major hurricane (Isaac) to affect the US east coast or Gulf coast...still waaaaay to early to say for sure!  See you soon my friend!