Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
In analyzing the visible satellite pic this Saturday morning, many meteorological phenomena can be discerned. 1st look at north central PA and western NY...the fog that developed in the dendritic drainage tributaries of the major drains in that region. Clear skies allowed the air temp to drop sufficiently for saturation to occur over the moisture laden air over the streams...pretty cool, huh? Or how about the N-S cloud line that marks the 1-2 mile wide Hudson River north of the Big Apple. It too indicates a vast area of low clouds in the vicinity of the major river known as the Hudson. Or the expansive area of cloudiness in the south central PA region and the piedmont of MD and VA. Upsloping air, and therefore enhanced cooling air, from the east wind emanating over the warm Atlantic has created this stratoculumlus cloud deck that we have awoken to this Saturday. The clouds over the Delmarva are simply a result of the marine layer air advecting westward onto the land. Did I ever say a picture is worth 1000 words?
The surface analysis clearly indicates large and in charge high pressure ridging over the eastern US. However, the low level easterly air flow has done its dirty work to moisten the air and the upsloping of the air combined with radiational cooling overnight has led to this potentially stubborn cloud deck we see this morn. The easterly flow was clearly evident last evening in Colonial Park as the freshly grilled grub and the smoke from the process did not grace our press box as the subtle east air flow moved the food scents away from our olfactory and over towards the visitors' side. In addition, a glorious sunset was noted by my colleagues a few minutes past kickoff last evening at "The Speedway".
The only real excitement in the nest several days in terms of the wx is this ocean storm that should be monitored and will ultimately become quite the "Hybrid Howler" as it strengthen both baroclinitically and develop tropical warm core characteristics as it feeds back upon its own convection thanks to the very warm oceans at this time of year in the north Atlantic. The Canadian model is by far the strongest and here is the prog for late Monday evening...
This graphic shows the ocean's churning surface as a result of this atmospheric disturbance...but this model is US generated and the GFS' storm is not as feisty as seen above. There is also quite the gale center over by western Europe...
Once this storm lifts slowly NE, our wx will be dominated by yet more 500 mb ridging as seen by the Euro...this is a dry WNW flow over PA...
But once past next week, the Euro and all of the global models for that matter are stuggling with consistency. Often, that is indicative of a pattern change, but it is too early to ascertain anything in terms of a major upheaval of the pattern 10 days out. Example, here is yesterday afternoon's run of the Euro 500 mb for later next weekend...
Now, here is the latest run for about the same time period...it's not nearly as bullish in phasing the 2 jets as seen above. Clearly, it holds back the closed low over the Red River Valley while the NE enjoys another glorious autumn weekend. So which is correct? I wish I could give you a more definitive answer. I know a few of you would want my opinion as to how all of this will transpire so they could prepare for the EXACT OPPOSITE atmospheric conditions. Y'all know, I love ya, man....
With all of that said, I will continue to monitor the evolving situation...but for now, keep that freshly seeded grass watered, be careful with any and all outdoor fires, and enjoy this fine stretch of benign autumnal wx. After all, we've been soaked in these parts over the last several Septembers and Octobers...normally our driest "warm season"months without any tropical influences! The September peak is due to visitors from the tropics in these parts. The map is compliments of the USGS...if you look closely enough, the CC estate could be clearly marked near the center of the map!
In closing, I simply have to comment on what I thought was an absolutely fabulous closing for the home town crew for the all-time saves leader in MLB. I frankly don't believe that record will ever be touched. Yankee fan or not, baseball fan or not, the true heart-felt emotions spilled forth from Mo knowing that his career of choice and desire is coming to a close. Personally, it would've been nice had only Jeter gone out to the mound; however, pitchers have that fraternity where position players would as well. It was one of the awesome MOments in sports that simply do not occur nearly enough. And, oh, by the way, he pitched a clean 1.1 innings to help his team once again! Take the time to watch if you haven't done so already, and I think you'll agree.
Enjoy your NCAA Saturday...and I believe LSU will win outright in GA; so the 3.5 points are a bonus!
Have a great week's end!
Smitty
AA: Clouds will be stubborn today...but it will remain dry through the week. Monitoring next weekend for pattern change.
Our spectacular spell of wx will continue into the foreseeable future! Look at the meteogram from the Euro for Harrisburg for the next 10 days. Be sure to note the vertical axis...as it is indicating only 0.04" of rain in tote for the next 10 days. Also note the increasing temps as we progress into October as the dry ground and lack of precip continue to allow for the insolation of the fading sun to work its magic on our little place on the planet.
After that copious 0.015" Saturday???, I'm not seeing the likelihood of rainfall for the next 10 days! Here is the Euro showing a ridge building over the central & eastern US to spur our spell of wonderful fall wx...the little "glitch" of an upper low off the east coast should simply fade NNE into the Atlantic and have minimal effects over the coastal communities of New England and the maritimes of O Canada.
The ridge strengthens into the end of next week as seen below...
In fact, the 5 day mean for the 500 mb heights is anomalously high for this time of year through days 6-10! If you like warm days, cool nights, and dry wx, well, that below was drawn for you!
So unless you have immediate interests in the northern Rockies where Mule Creek, Montana seems to be the recipient of the greatest snowfall from the onset of the cold season, your wx concerns are minimal! Take a look at the obs over the last several hours at Mule Creek, MT!
Which leads me to this wonderful ditty from John Denver...Wild Montana Skies. I hope you enjoy it as much as I!
And enjoy the week's end...I do believe Saturday will be splendid, spectacular, and scintillating!
Smitty
By the way, isn't it nice to say goodbye to Bud? I'd vote for Brian McCann for commish! Just sayin'...
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