Damp to Thanksgiving Then Nice

It's beginning to appear to me that the sensible weather in the days leading up to Thanksgiving will be cool and damp culminating with a moderate rain event for Wednesday.  However, by Thanksgiving Day, most of the nasty wx will have passed leaving PA with a seasonal day in terms of temperatures.  As of this writing, here is the IR satellite of the current synoptic set up.  The red line marks the boundary between fairly different air masses across the US.  The blue line and arrow shows the storm that is presently across the northern plains, and as it travels northeast, it will drag that boundary just to the south of PA.  Therein lies our "damp issues" for early in the upcoming work week.

Very weak waves of low pressure will work their way along this boundary creating pockets of light rain and drizzle both Monday and Tuesday.  It appears that by Wednesday, a more vigorous wave will spin up and develop a moderate rain event for Wednesday.  The good news with that scenario is that by Turkey Day, most of the dampness associated with the weakness will be well to our east and outta here making for a nice Black Friday and home AAAA District 3 semi-final at "The Speedway" (name credited to our esteemed Patriot News beat writer Eric Epler!).  Here is the GFS' depiction of these events...first, Tuesday evening....

then, Thanksgiving Day.....

...and now Black Friday...in fact, Black Friday afternoon looks to be rather spectacular at this point from my chair.  (Note to Russ...please convey this Merilee for me please....thanks!)

I do have a fair bit of confidence in this prognostication as the Euro is somewhat in agreement with this synoptic scenario over the next 7 days.  Here is the Euro's take on the events starting with Wednesday evening. Here the storm has already passed us and we would be experiencing a brief cold shot of northerly winds for Turkey Day but high pressure from the Arklotex region moves in and makes for some rather delightful wx for...

Black Friday...

So both major models depict a damp start and beautiful finish for our Thanksgiving Week.  Retailers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will not have the wx to blame if sales are below expectations for the "opening" weekend of Christmas shopping.  The wx will not be an issue either for next weekend's Friday Night Lights!  As for further into the future, that is when the crystal ball gets a bit muddied with great uncertainty!  Below are the ensembles runs' for both the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  Without becoming too labyrinthine, a negative AO and NAO often spell cold and potentially snowy conditions for the cold season months of Dec-March.  As you can see, the ensembles are all over the board in their progs of the AO and NAO, although the ensemble mean is clearly trending negative.  Here...take a looksie...first the NAO.....

And now the AO...

Clearly there is uncertainty!  But the trend is your friend unless that is your stock portfolio over the last year!  Do y'all realize that the Dow Jones average is +8.0 points since October 23?!?  With that incredible volatility over the last month, the market has traded sideways over that time.  Sorry I digress, I just thought that was strange when I read that......but speaking of uncertainty, the outcome of last evening's AAAA playoff between the CD Rams and the CC Colts was very irresolute until the Rams recovered an on-side kick with 1:07 displaying on the game clock.  At one point near the end of the 3rd qt, when the outstanding athlete from CD (Zayd) scored his 3rd TD of the evening, the game started to lean CD's way.  However, much to the credit of the Cedar Cliff Colts, they kept fighting back and landing haymakers to keep the game in reach.  In the end, the CD rushing game proved too much as the Rams collected 380 yards on the ground of their game total 385 yards.  Cliff on the other hand had a much more balanced attack, their future bright with their sophomore southpaw under center!  So the Rams advance to the AAAA District 3 semi-final against the Panthers from Central York on what should be a rather nice evening for high school football in an even nicer setting now affectionately known within a small but growing coterie as "The Speedway". 

Have a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  After a nice weekend now, Monday-Wednesday look a bit unsettled with periods of light rain and drizzle Monday and Tuesday.  A moderate cold rain event is in store for Wednesday.  Then a brief cool-down for Thanksgiving Day before a quick rebound making a quite nice Friday-Sunday period for next weekend!  Happy Thanksgiving my friend as I am thankful for many things in my life including my friends who humor (& humble me) by reading this blog.....

Friday Night Clear and Cold Lights

But not very windy.  But as has been the case for the last several weeks, Friday will be the coldest day of the week.  Below is a shot of how clear the air will be for tonight's District 3 football matchups.  Save for but a few intense lake effect snow showers in the lee of the lakes, PA is mainly clear.

And here are both the temperature and wind forecasts for kickoff.  First the temps:

With a very light southerly flow to moderate temps for the upcoming weekend.

Keeping watch on a system that will most likely bring rain to our area on Wednesday, but if you are traveling north and east, snow is a real possibility for Wednesday and possibly into Thanksgiving Day.  Will keep you posted but gotta go for now.  Go Rams!  And Central York, CV, and Wilson...seems like the same names now doesn't it?

Have a good week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Clear and cold today and for football tonight.  Watching potential for nasty wx mid week next week.

See-Saw Temperatures Favoring Warmth

Just a very quick post to let y'all know that the modeling continues to paint a rather warm ending to the month of November after another quick shot of cold air coming this Thursday and Friday.  Here is the 500 mb anomaly for this Thursday evening.  As we get closer to the end of the week, the modeling is not digging the trough as much as it was earlier in the week, so this should just be a glancing shot of cold, but after the recent warmth a shot of cold to be sure!

But by Sunday, the temps will rebound nicely and another warm November day will be on tap.  Take a look.....

What will be ushering in that warmth is a storm system that will be passing well to our north and west, but it will begin to expand the snow cover into the northern US.  Take a look at the before and after for snowfall focusing on Minnesota!  First, the current snow depth...

And after the storm deposits its white carpet to the north country.  I do believe this storm will make the national headlines as it should be a large gale center over the western lakes and create havoc for a day or two...

As for later towards Thanksgiving, it is now appearing that what I originally thought would be the immense cold building in AK would be allowed to displace south and east now looks to be placed on hold for a few more days.  Both the Euro and GFS show agreement in their 500 mb anomalies over the 8-10 day period.  The Euro is on the left; GFS on the right.

For those wanting some early winter, the NAO is forecasted to go negative by December.  Take a look at the ensembles of the -NAO forecasted for the end of November.  The operational run goes strongly negative, but several of the members are positive with their blocking, so no real clear signal is truly being offered at this time.

That is all....now I'm off to watch my hero...Bill O'Reilly.  By the way, and those of you who know me know that it must be a very good read for me opine on a book, but "Killing Lincoln" is an outstanding read and one I would certainly recommend!

Have a good mid-week.

Smitty

AA:  A quick shot of cold Thursday-Friday, then warm conditions return for the foreseeable future.