50-50 Weekend

Saturday will be cool, check that, downright raw, and wet.  Sunday appears to be drying out albeit with cool, gusty NW winds.  Just a very quick post to summarize this weekend....First, here is a map of the total precip that will have fallen by Sunday afternoon.  Most of the rain will fall between the hours of 2 pm Saturday until 10 pm Saturday evening.  The NAM has the target of heaviest rain in north central PA.  I personally believe the bulls-eye will be in south central PA....time will tell.

Saturday potentially will be ugly cold for this time of year...look at the starting point temperature-wise for early Saturday morning.  Man-o-Man, that is chilly!

Lastly, skies will clear rather quickly Sunday on gusty NW drying winds.  Of course, there is no free lunch....so winds from the NW will usher in below normal temps for this time of year...although the sunshine will most certainly take the sting out of the air in the middle of the afternoon.  I do believe a WIDESPREAD FROST is very likely Sunday night into Monday morning once the winds subside and high pressure sets up shop right over PA late Sunday into Monday. In fact, sub-freezing temps are possible with this synoptic setup!  Just consider yourselves advised!

But temps will rebound quickly by the middle of next week.....take a look for Prom Friday!  I believe max temps will achieve 80ºF either next Thursday or Friday......

In closing, Humber gives up 9 earned after his perfecto!  Most ever by any pitcher after pitching a perfect game!  Wow!  Also, the NJ Devils scare me....always have....always will!  I hope the Flyers can get their nemesis out of the way onto Lord Stanley's Cup!  Go Flyers!

Enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Cold and damp Saturday; drying, breezy, and coolish Sunday...but much brighter!  Flyers in 6 over the Devils?

Cold Rain and Snow

PA appears to be in store for one cold and dismal weekend with lots of low clouds, cold NE breezes and nearly and inch of rain (with a few snowflakes thrown in for good measure, especially in the higher terrain) when all is said and done by Monday morning.  Let's take a look strictly at the temps over the next 3 days...starting with...

FRIDAY:

SATURDAY: (the purple is -18ºF below normal and suggests snowfall!)

SUNDAY: (normals for KMDT are mid 60s...so look for highs in upper 40s!)

And by Sunday afternoon, here is the total precip that is modeled for PA...some of the places that received the snows earlier this week will actually see another snowfall of ~2-4" in the higher ground by Sunday morning....AGAIN!  It's nearly May people!  The forecasted temperature profile actually suggests at this time a few wet snowflakes will mix in the rains here in the Harrisburg area late Saturday evening!

But, what a difference a few days make....take a look at the temp anomalies for next Thursday...much above normal (+12ºF) for PA!

In closing, this cold wx has to have you somewhat in the mood for the NHL playoff hockey.  I guess most of New England is now going to shift their attention to the struggling Red Sox since their beloved Bs will be on the golf course compliments of the Washington Capitals!  Now for Ottawa to oust the NY Rangers....

Have a good Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  This weekend looks to be much below normal temperature-wise and quite damp....

One For The Record Books

This will be an historic springtime nor'easter; one for the record books!  Flooding rains on the east with damaging heavy wet snow to the west.  Rapid intensification along the Carolina coast will generate extremely strong wind gusts as air is sucked into cyclone.  Gusty ENE winds will cause higher than normal tides and coastal flooding especially since we are one day past new moon!  Astronomically, the set-up is perfect for coastal erosion!  Here is the tide chart for Cape May, NJ.  The circled high tide is the one of great concern for the New Jersey coast.

As for the effects of this storm inland, this is a direct quote from the NWS office out of Sate College..."THIS STORM WILL BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE".  Again with the weight of the heavy wet snow, even a few inches will wreak havoc upon the western and central portions of PA and the mountains of WV along with upstate NY!  Here is the probability of AT LEAST 8" SNOW for Monday!  Personally, I believe this will be a bit further east as per the European model.  Wow!

And so does the forecaster from State College...another quote..."AS FAVORED ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS FARTHER EAST WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH A COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS..." and here is the Euro output for late Sunday night! Look at that 988 mb monster. Quite impressive!

And the Euro upper air prog for the same time.  Man I wish it were winter!  That is a textbook example of a full latitudinal phase.  Atmospheric synoptics don't happen like this too often...although the global warming crowd will capitalize on this event no doubt!

Here is the regional NAM's best guess as to the total precip from this storm.  Again, I believe the "lighter green" bulls eye will be a bit further east...sort of over the Susquehanna Valley with the heaviest precip falling over the DE River and the Allegheny Plateau.  I look for KMDT to receive ~1.50" rain from this intense system.  The stronger is develops, the more dry air will be able to actually wrap in at the mid levels and actually decrease the rainfall for KMDT!

So, one for the record books as was pitcher Phil Humber's perfecto yesterday against the lowly Mariners.  Nothing can be taken away from a pitchers' perfection, but I did hear some talking head try to do just that saying its luster was less brilliant since it was versus Seattle.  That's total baloney!  They are a major league team with major league talent and possibly one of the better hitters in MLB history even trying to get on base via a bunt which is his forte.  So congrats to the ChiSox' Humber, a former Met and Tommy John patient by the way, on pitching the 21st perfect game in MLB history!

Now maybe the Flyers can be the icing on this weekend's sports front.  I heard somewhere that a major nor'easter is going to take the cake on the weather front!

Enjoy your Sunday!

Smitty

AA:  Nor'easters, perfect games, and Stanley Cup playoffs!  Doesn't get much better for springtime!