Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
I've been studying the atmospheric mischief for the last several weeks more so than usual...if that's even possible...and I'm becoming more convinced that Christmas to New Years Day and beyond looks ugly for those of you not liking the winter theme. If you like winter's best; this I believe is the stretch you'll enjoy! First, the cold!
If there is any snow on the ground, knock 10°F off the temps shown above...And now the potential snowfall as per the Euro...(personally, it might be underdone since we live at such a baroclinic boundary...)
The totals shown above are by Jan 1; Happy New Year! I'm not sure if this verifies, but if it does, I'll never see a Christmas week rocking and rolling like this again in my lifetime...? Enjoy!
And enjoy my girl...
Merry Christmas!
Smitty
AA: The 10 day period we do not report might be rather rocking and rolling in terms of the weather! Merry Christmas my friend! Squeeze those little ones a bit harder for me please; I miss doing so but I'll grip my big boy with a bear hug when he gets in town from STL!
The snow forecast is difficult...as is usually the case; THE COLD IS NOT! I believe the next 10-15 days may be the coldest of this winter for KMDT! It's difficult for us to record a low temp below 0 without snow on the ground (or with the AGW crowd, even with!), but I'm thinking the hounds of the Arctic will be trying to do so before the end of this year! Put another way, I will be watching the ball, pickle, hammer, bologna, drop from the shelter of my home (or some other indoor facility!) as opposed to attending live and freezingly in person. Please allow me to espouse...
First...the 850 mb anomaly for New Years Eve..."Barney cold"...!
But long prior to that scene, we will see our last 50+F this Saturday for quite a while...the graphic below is Saturday pm...
However, by Christmas morn...here is what the Euro suggests...kinda normal temps...!
With this height anomaly by mid week...
Just bundle up and buckle up! Here is the Euro snow totes by next weekend...
When the snow falls is still quite an enigma...this is a pattern with potential and a forecaster's nightmare...when?...where?...how much?...and oh by the way, if you've not figured this out yet...I LOVE IT! Yet, another challenge! So I'll leave y'all with this Christmas ditty...Enjoy! Kay says this is my girl...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Brief warm up with rain Saturday...then the bottom drops out. Merry Christmas my friend! Enjoy those little ones; they grow way too quickly...and oh by the way, you're going down this weekend in fantasyland...I think??? Ha!
After perusing the copious quantities of maps this morning, one major eye opening parameter recurred over and over. The week between Christmas and New Years looks to be dominated by high pressure across most of North America. What that translates to is very cold and dry sensible weather. However, as I mentioned yesterday, there is an almost summer like "Bermuda High" out over the Atlantic that could fight back the advancing cold from O Canada and create a stormy pattern. The control runs of the modeling is not suggesting that; however, there are many perturbed ensembles that do. I'm unsure about precip but am fairly confident with the cold. Let's take a look.
I like to look at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) analog runs using similar synoptic set-ups at the 500 mb level. Here was their output this am. You can note the large Atlantic ridge and the vast negative over the continent. Also, in the lower right, there are dates. The top date of 1962 was a cold Christmas Day with a modest snow for Harrisburg. The 5th analog is 1983; the coldest Christmas Day on record for KMDT! January 1963 shows up. A continuation of the 5ºF below normal winter (1962-63) for KMDT! Ice was on the river for over 2 months at Harrisburg during that winter. 1967 (8th analog) had 2 major snowstorms all across the east after a warm spell as the cold air advanced. Basically, what I'm saying is there is some winter coming to these parts next week but the proverbial devil is in the details...
Here is the sprawling high pressure over the continent for Christmas week. That is one cold looking arctic high dominating the CONUS. Now does it come in without any arctic carpet is the question??? The top 1962 analog above had 2 moderate snows with the advancing arctic chill.
Again, the cold seems to be easy. The 5 day average of temps at 850 mb; Barney cold!
And the 500 mb heights are quite anomalous as well...
That is a couple days after this. That's the battleground over the east I alluded to yesterday. The flow of air is cross-polar into the northern plains so bundle up for the days following Christmas if this verifies.
Last map...I can't remember the last time I saw a 1060 mb high progged! Vodka cold! Rudolph won't be the only one with a red nose!
OK...off to light the 3rd candle on the advent wreath. I'll leave you with this remake of a Kenny Loggins tune...Enjoy!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Christmas week likely to be very cold. Not sure about any snow yet? Lots of man-made stuff at Roundtop. High pressure just might overwhelm the pattern for a solid week!
