Large Dome of High Pressure

At present, the vast majority of the CONUS is enjoying rather tranquil wx for what can be a stormy time of year. As we transition from late summer/early autumn into late autumn/early winter, we begin to see the jet stream become a bit more convoluted and as a result, the sensible wx becomes more and more unsettled. It might seem hard to believe that the wx can become more "feisty" than it has been of late, but winter is prime time for mid-latitude cyclones to develop and bring their wrath to those who inhabit in the temperate zones of the earth.  However, for the recent past and into the end of next week, it appears that the wx in these parts will be controlled by High Pressure or what are commonly referred to as Anticyclones.  The graphic below shows a lack of watches and warnings verifying the relative tranquillity of the atmosphere in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

The pink region you see off the Carolina coast is a result of high seas and rough surf thanks to a developing system that will be far enough away from the east coast to cause us at KMDT any wx problems.  However, high winds and surf will once again pound the eastern seaboard as the storm develops, strengthens, and moves slowly NE and then ENE and away from the coast by Turkey Day.  

Here is a cloud photograph showing that developing system off the Carolinas and a nice cyclone getting ready to invade the Pacific NW.  But other than that, it is VFR (clear sailing) across the bulk of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

High-pressure weather systems often bring fair weather and relatively clear skies. In June 2012, a High Pressure system off the coast of Tasmania did just that…and in spectacular fashion. A NASA satellite caught this view of a hole in a cloud formation over the Great Australian Bight.  The subsiding air associated with High Pressure cut out the oval-shaped hole from a blanket of marine stratocumulus clouds. The cloud hole, with a diameter that stretched as far as 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) across, was caused as sinking air compresses and warms adiabatically to the tune of ~5.5F/1000'.  The clouds were evaporated as the air temp rose above the dew point temperature and voila.....clear skies!  Awesome photograph!

"Normal" sea level pressure is 1013.2 mb.  The wx is being dominated here in the east presently by a large O Canadian High centered over SW Quebec...and it is strong (1039 mb)!

Picture that High Pressure system in Quebec like the diagram below...a large dome of air that is slowly sinking towards the surface of the earth keeping most clouds and precipitation at bay.

And it will strengthen (1042 mb) through tomorrow and slowly migrate off the continent by Monday.  Lows in ME tonight will be quite chilly as the High sits right on top of Mt. Katahdin!

And even at the upper levels, a large anticyclonic flow exists.  The map below is for ~1 mile up...However, note the large Gulf of Alaska cyclone getting ready to wreak havoc on the PAC NW.

But we are protected by a huge dome of High Pressure not too different than these 2 young men who were also being protected by a slightly different variant of a Dome of High Pressure!  The pic below went viral as it was re-tweeted in the twitter-sphere over 70 times within a day!  Thanks to a heads-up move by one of our fearless leaders who, I might add, has a great sense of humor about all of this, protected these 2 combatant individuals who wanted to inflict pain upon each other.  The high pressure which he invoked rendered both individuals safe from harmful conditions much like these sprawling areas of high pressure do to the surface dwellers of planet earth!

Note the resemblance!

So being under pressure isn't all that bad.  In fact, it keeps potentially volatile situations stable!  So I will leave y'all with this Queen & Bowie classic who have their own take on Pressure!

Enjoy your High Pressure wx filled week's end!

Smitty

AA:  High pressure to rule the wx well into next week.  And we are also safe with high pressure protectors walking our building!

Tranquil Thursday...and Beyond

This is just about as quiet as the weather can be nationwide...look at the Home Page from the NWS and the LACK OF WATCHES & WARNINGS that are indicated on the map below.  This is quite tranquil, to be sure!  The "Tan" areas are simply Hazardous Wx Outlooks which are issued at a dime per dozen rate!  The 2 areas of any real concern are off the SE coast and the NW coast.  There is one lonely winter wx advisory in No. CA...and that is it!

Here is the satellite pic to verify the rather humdrum wx of this day.

A rather large area of high pressure is flexing its muscle over the intermountaine region with a weak jet stream disturbance moving into the desert SW.  A feisty onshore flow around SC is the reason for the storm flags flying along the coast....and that is it!  In fact, it appears that the weather will remain rather tranquil over the next several days...here is the GFS solution for Saturday.

The above map has minimal precip nationwide...with a large and in-charge high pressure system over the NE!  As for the storm next week that had to be monitored, well it now appears that it will be well off the coast.  Here is the Euro's depiction for next Wednesday.  Looks like a great day to prep the Turkey!  You might even feel a bit under "pressure" if the holiday crunch time doesn't get to you!  Look at the map...it's a joke!

However, enjoy the moderate wx as by the time next weekend rolls around, it is now beginning to appear the the cold that gathering on the north slope of AK and the land of Nunavut, it is starting to get unleashed for the lower 48.  Here is a graphic from the GFS 2 weeks hence that is simply brutally cold for late November!  I believe that the long wave pattern is such that cold will invade eastern NA and linger for many weeks to come beginning sometime late next weekend into early the following week...

The GFS Ensembles suggest cold to come with the negative NAO being forecasted for later this month...

And it is quite cold in the north country...

...as it is in many parts of the US as of 3 pm EST as per the map below...

So there you have it...mostly tranquil...followed by a bit more tranquillity Turkey week, with a chance of invasion of some true winter-like air by the end of the month!  LFS has taught me good...don't cha think?  If these pesky clouds clear out, look heavenward this evening or tomorrow morning early as the peak of the Leonid Meteor Shower will be occurring.  These are noted for very few meteors; however, one might be treated to a bright longer streak or possibly a fireball!  So be part of the 5% club and look skyward when you go outside the next 24 hours or so....or beyond...because nature is offering quite a show up/out there!

Have a great week's end...enjoy this Thanksgiving Song...

Smitty

AA:  Very mundane wx...not much exciting to talk about.  Meteor shower to peak early Friday morning...but these pesky low clouds will block most of that as well...I think Turkey Day and Black Friday will be the warmest of the next 3 weeks...and maybe longer...just a hunch!

Jersey, We Have A Problem

That is if you believe the global modeling for next week!  But first, how about that frozen precip this morning.  I was over in Mechanicsburg early this am and it was coming down for a brief period; heavy wet snow and sleet!  Many of the cars in the parking lot had evidence of a brief "downpour" of frozen glop from the passage of the cold front.  The satellite pic below shows the front well offshore and the SE quadrant of PA under bright sunshine while the bulk of PA is under the StratoCu that so often accompanies the cold air aloft at this time of year...

And here are the 24 hour temp changes from yesterday afternoon!  Nearly a 30F temp drop is impressive...don't cha think?

And high pressure will be large and in-charge for the remainder of the work week.  Here is the Euro's take on the surface pressures for Saturday morning!

However, the wx begins to deteriorate as we progress through the weekend and into Thanksgiving week.  Here is the Euro's solution for next Tuesday!  Wow...yet another storm along the east coast!  Again, this scenario does not bode well for the east coast beaches from the Delmarva northward.  Literally, no rest for the weary!  This is some strong winds that would be slamming big water into the unprotected beaches...not a pretty sight!

Then...2 days later...the storm blasts down east ME with big surf, heavy coastal rains and season starting snow pack interior snows!  They would most certainly be using sled dogs to get to Gram-ma's house this Thanksgiving!

However, there is not consensus in the world of numerical global modeling!  The GFS shows a much weaker solution waaay out to sea!  The map below is for the time between the 2 Euro maps above.  Large high pressure over the maritimes doesn't really suggest a storm heading out to sea.  Again, I believe the Euro will win this debate and ultimately we will see yet another large nor'easter at some point during the Thanksgiving week!

Take a look at the blocking that is being suggested by the Euro.  What that entails is high pressure aloft over the N. Atlantic which funnels cold air and into the eastern part of N. America along with a storm track that tends to move slowly up the coast.  These anomalies are quite large and suggest the east coast must be monitored for yet another major coastal system!  Huge trough in the east; large ridge in the west; and in the upper right corner, large ridge or "blocking"...something the Eagles offensive line should look into!

And a slightly wider view of the 500 mb pattern that suggests the interesting blocking pattern...

The GFS doesn't really have much of a system near the coast because its energy is all out of whack!  Look at how disjointed this 500 mb vorticity looks.  However, I do point out (orange arrow) this little feisty looking vort max that should be monitored for a surface system to spin up as a result of this energy.  We will see what we will see...

OK...I've rambled enough!  Even though not a huge fan, does anyone else miss the NHL?  I kinda like sifting through the stations and stopping and watching a period of NHL in lieu of just about anything else the tele has to offer!  I know it is football season and Thanksgiving and football go together like cranberry sauce and turkey, but just sayin'...I like the NHL and do miss it to a slight extent!  Let's put it this way, I wouldn't mind at all if the NBA was locked out as opposed to the NHL!  Winter means ice, snow and cold!  By the way, here is a north polar view of the current snow and ice cover over the northern hemisphere!  Note the recent snow cover from the blizzard that just pummeled the northern plains of MT and ND!  And note the extensive snow cover over Asia and northern China!  It's all about global warming as y'all know!  Also note how the Gulf Stream keeps port Murmansk open in Russia!  (See post here.)

OK...definitely going to go now.  After all, its almost dinner and I need something other than the deluxe Carrot Cake I enjoyed today compliments of my friend Yokes.  Although I might call it a victory cake, my friend and I both agree that I did win this cake as a result of an electorate who does not believe that freedom and personal responsibility is a "real big deal".  However, as the eternal optimist, I do believe that the America I once knew will rebound and once again become the most respected nation on this planet.  Whether it be from its political stability or its economic steadfastness, America will regain its status on the world stage...and with that, I will leave you with this folk classic...

I'll try to keep y'all posted on the pending weather for Thanksgiving week!

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  Nice weather this week...deteriorating into early next week!

Nice Wx Week

For the middle of November, the wx this week will most certainly cooperate.  Once this rather sharp cold front passes through later this evening, the wx will be dominated by high pressure for the remainder of the week into this weekend.  And this is quite the front...it doesn't have great upper level dynamics associated with it like it did out in the mid-west as it progressed across the CONUS; however, there will still be quite a bit of showery rains and gusty winds 12 hrs either side of the frontal passage through KMDT.  Here is a snapshot of the temps on either side of the front as progged by the NAM...

Note the 24 hour temp change with the passage of the front in the mid-west!

The heaviest of the rain appears to want to fall early Tuesday morning and if you take the Rapid Refresh Model literally, the morning commute with be one with heavy showers to contend!

But once this cold fronts progresses through the east, high pressure will rule the roost.  Look at the forecast modeled lows for Wednesday morning...quite a difference from this mild Monday morning!

Also note the uniformity of the morning low temps across most of the CONUS!  Hence the term...air mass!  Here is the GFS' take on the pressures at the surface for Saturday morning.  Looks like a typical fall regime with clear cool nights and mornings with moderating temps during the day with relatively bright sunshine.  do remember that we are essentially only ONE MONTH from the lowest sun angle we see at our latitude!  So don't rely too heavily on the warming power of the sun at this time of year...although Ol' Sol can work his magic!

Eventually, that 1035 mb high will move NE away from the US and allow some unsettled wx to gather over the southern states that must be watched for Thanksgiving week.  The Euro actually has yet another coastal storm progged for the early part of next week...and the pattern suggests this solution could verify.  At the very least, it must certainly be monitored for devilish developments which could make the wx in these parts rather interesting a day or 2 either side of Turkey Day!

So there is a quick overview of the wx for the next week.  Once the wx systems come more into line for next week, I'll try to update everyone with how the sensible wx might respond.  In the meantime, more about the fiscal cliff, the losing Eagles, and the solar eclipse in Australia.  Yes...keep your eyes on the internet to see some neat reports from the total solar eclipse over NE Australia and the Great Barrier Reef!

Or you can monitor how Congress and the newly re-elected president want to tackle this so called US Fiscal Clif...

Not to be confused with what my buddy saw me eating today, called it...my "Fiscal Clif Bar"...made me laugh!  Maybe you had to be there, but I thought it to be very humorous!

OK...enough for now...so since I mentioned "Eclipse", I'll leave you with a cut from one of my favorite albums of all time...released in March of 1973 and sold over 15,000,000 copies in the US; Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon.  The final cut (not another one of their albums) is titled Eclipse...and I think you might like!

Enjoy....the mid-week, the cold frontal passage, and this incredible closing song!

Smitty

AA:  Cold front passes through overnight Monday into early Tuesday with some rain and wind...then nice seasonable wx into the weekend.  Watching a storm for Thanksgiving week....?