Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Well, February 2 is here and this marks celebrations all across Dutch settled regions of Marmota monax, commonly referred to as the groundhog. Whether it's the prognostication from the gold standard Punxsutawney Phil or the lesser knowns of Octoraro Orphie and the very little know Etters Eddie, on this cross-quarter day astronomically, people will want to know if these mammals have seen their shadows. And though long range weather forecasting can be a challenge, Phil doesn't do a bad job! He certainly does have a bias towards more winter...and rightly so as we still have February and early March to get through. Heck, last year we here in PA experienced winter type weather right into April! Here is a graphic showing Phil's predictions since 1887...
Phil did see his shadow last year and was correct with his call. Try to recall the FOUR nor'easters of last March! The other notable "bingo-front row" forecasts of recent times were 2014 and 2010 where February in these parts were quite snowy! Below is a time-lapse of last year's barrage of storms to hit the eastern US...it's worth the 50 seconds...
So with the recent snow and cold entrenched in our memories, will Phil call for more winter? Or will he check out the numerical guidance that suggests winter is over, at least for this upcoming week? If he looks at the Euro's guidance for the 1st week of February, this is what he will see...
But that 2nd week of February is indicating a classic battleground setting up in the eastern US which could create another cold and stormy pattern in these parts. Look at the warmth across the SE US compared to the strengthening cold across the rest of the continent. Usually, the cold wins these battles at this time of year.
And simply for kicks and giggles, here is the Euro's guidance for both temperatures and snowfall into the middle of March. If Phil sees this, he'll quickly see his shadow and regroup in his burrow for another 6 weeks! First the temps...the entire US below norms with the lone exception of Florida! That's suggesting winter is taking a brief respite this week before reloading...
...and this graphic below suggests a stormy time of it here in the eastern US. February is often a snowy time in these parts...and this numerical model guidance is indicating snow all the way to the Gulf coast in TX and LA! Heck, if that is even remotely close to being modeled accurately, Phil will have a difficult task clearing snow from his home in Punxsutawney!
As for today's astronomical celebration, the sun has progressed to about its 1/2 way point from the noon sun angle being over the Tropic of Capricorn to the noon sun angle being over the equator! Our 9 hours of daylight have lengthened into about 10.5 hours and soon on the Vernal Equinox, our noon time sun angle will be a much warmer 50º as opposed to a very ineffective and dark 26º. So that is indeed something to celebrate!
Enjoy this Groundhog Day blues tune from Johnny Lang and Double Trouble!
Happy Groundhogs' Day!
Smitty
AA: After winter loosens its grip this upcoming week, it appears that we are back to a cold and stormy pattern to close out winter...at least that what the numerical models are indicating.
FYI...around noon today...a strong squall line will be advancing through our region and is likely to create a quick accumulation of snow in white-out conditions! We living in the Harrisburg region are not to accustomed to such winter events; just be aware. This is the arrival of the truest of arctic air! Temps will drop this afternoon and winds will be gusty creating windchills 10-15 below 0. Just wanted y'all to know...if you didn't already!
As I was departing my place of employment today, a co-worker (and loyal reader I might add...) so eloquently asked "well Smitty, are we ever gonna get a real storm this winter?" Frankly, I forget my quick and not so thoughtful response...sorry...but it got me thinking that many of us think, living here in the sub-tropics of North America, that we should get major snow storms each and every year. As a getting there "old-head", I've had my share! You youngins...you had more than you should! The true old timers are where the snowstorms regress to the mean...please let me explain.
The graphics that I'm using for the most part come from the heavy lifting of Dr Jon Nese of PSU; he recently did a segment on my favorite TV show "Weather World" about 10"+ snowfalls in PA! The statistical breakdown was 2nd to none. I will paraphrase his emphasis...
First, the number of 10"+ storms at his chosen 5 stations in PA since the late 1896...
...and then divided down to each decade period...(10 years y'all, I guess I'm still in the classroom!)
So basically every other year we should get a good one in these parts. My loyal reader, likely more often since my loyal reader is skewed NW of KMDT towards KUNV but the names will be confidential so as to not admit as being identified as a "loyal reader"...!
As for KMDT...which I believe has a low bias snow measurement as does KDCA in Washington DC, we still have the first part of February before the frequency of such snow bombs begin to decline, albeit minimally...
The graphic below I found interesting as this was KMDT's snowiest winter on record...one of the only FIVE times...yes...FIVE times when these FIVE sites had 10"+ storms all from the same storm!
Of course the grand-daddy of east coast nor'easters...The superstorm of 1993...
I wasn't alive for the 1961 blast, but I'm sure most of y'all recall 1993! It occurred on a Saturday into Sunday(thundersnow, too!) and we got back to school Thursday...it was a doooooozy!
Just an offshoot...KMDT's biggest snow is not even a big deal in the 4 other locations so much...take a look! And y'all enjoyed that storm to be sure...(I did beat IV on the O/U for once!)
For those of you keeping records...here is the NorthEast Impact Snowstorm Scale broken down by years...please feel my pain; I lived the weather from the 70s through today; had a few fun ones lately and back in the Clinton years, but we all live here in the Sub-Tropics as I am so insistent!
OK...I've rattled long enough; some of 8th period is probably glad that they didn't have to hear my discourse, but for those of you who read and appreciate, a genuine "Thank You"...and one to Dr Jon Nese for the graphics and heavy statistical lifting...and one to my loyal reader who shall remain anonymous living halfway up 322 towards PSU! Maybe not so much anymore...
OK, I'm out; big flakes with the wave spinning up the front currently over my place! Looks like January outside to be sure; will feel like it the rest of this week!
Enjoy my song choice...and if any of you who listen to the songs have ideas associated with the weather, please let me know! I'd really like that...
I do like Mumford and Sons...
Smitty
AA: A nice snow event this afternoon into the evening, then the arctic emperor invades! Check out these wind chills Thursday am... Brrrrrrrr! Bundle up yourself and those darlings of yours!
