Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Or should we call it "Native North American" Summer being politically correct and all of that sort of thing seeing that it is the high tide of the political season and therefore political correctness runs rampant in these parts! However, back to the point of an above normal spell of temps after the first frost. Now that we have had 2 frosts, any mild spell will most certainly qualify for NNAS. The 1st map below shows the temperature anomaly for the 850 mb temps (1 mile up) for Wednesday...
As you can see, the greatest deviations from normal will be centered over the Great Lakes. However, we here in PA will be basking in a rather glorious experience of NNAS. And after another Pacific front passes through on/about Friday, the Euro seems to think another ridge will pop here in the east and yet another surge of NNAS. Take a look...for the day before Halloween...Also note the gathering cold in O Canada.
The Euro also suggests that the upper atmosphere will have higher than normal heights here in the east suggesting another surge of NNAS until the gathering cold can translate eastward across the continent...
Next Friday still looks to be warm if you believe the American GFS. Here is the prog of the GFS Friday 2m temps...this suggests temps easily to be in the low 70s! But look at that -30F to normal cold eyeing up the western high plains!
Clearly, a front can be seen passing through PA next Sunday as the GFS 2 m temps would indicate. I also wouldn't think that any "fair-weathered" critters would want to be Alberta Bound with sub-freezing temps being forecast by the global modeling for next weekend in that province! Lovers of NNAS would be heading to New England instead!
And although the timing and progression of the air masses are in contradiction with both the Euro and the GFS, it still appears that the 1st week of November will feature below to much below normal cold as shown with the 500 mb map below. Some true Arctic cold will be developing over the western part of the continent. Also note the tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific. It might just be a Halloween trick for those vacationing in Cabo!
So there you have it...a nice spell of NNAS followed by an abrupt change to some rather cold air that will be gathering in the northern portions of O Canada...Nunavut and the NW Territories to be specific, home to truly incredible Native North Americans! Listen, with communities named "Igloolik" and "Whale Cove", you know that you are most definitely in NNA country!
Earlier, I made a reference to one of my favorite singer/songwriter's numerous ballads; Alberta Bound released in 1972 by Gordon Lightfoot. I will leave y'all with this...and I hope this gets you up and moving this autumnal Saturday morning! (Not fond of the graphics; love the tune!) Enjoy...
And enjoy your week's end...Go PSU, Temple, Ravens, Giants (SF Baseball), & Flyers.....Oh...that's right...forgot...no NHL for awhile. Then how about Go Lady Rams Field Hockey as they enter District 3 play beginning this Tuesday!
Smitty
AA: Nice week of Indian Summer coming up. A rather quick transition to some below normal temps around Halloween.
Just a very brief post to share with y'all what is simply an awe inspiring sight of the atmosphere; namely a mid-latitude cyclone. Look at the expansive region this gyre affects and from last evening's rains and storms; how far and wide its effects can be felt. It is quite the view...
And this is how the upper air maps are represented as a result of this cyclone in all levels of the atmosphere...1st the 250 mb level showing the counterclockwise wind flow around the low pressure...
The 300 mb jet stream level...quite a powerful jet driving in Pacific air into western North America. Also, a nice little jet streak on the eastern side of the cyclone to help promote upward motion and possibly some enhanced rainfall later on...
Now the 500 mb vorticity...this is where one tries to locate the vorticity maximum and figure where the greatest amount of upward motion will occur..."X" marks the spot of the vort max...
At 700 mb, mets use this level to look for "active clouds" or areas likely to support precipitation...the deepest green likely has precip falling underneath in some way, shape, or form...
The form of precip is often determined by the 850 mb chart. At one mile up, if the temps are below freezing, frozen precip could actually make it to the surface if the entire column of air could support frozen precip. it's just a bit too early for this, but a cold November lurks after next week's bout of Indian Summer!
Lastly, the surface and the 850 mb temps...the blue line is below freezing and the red line is well above freezing one mile up. Note the 10ºC isotherm over eastern PA; hence the thunderstorms last evening along with the rapid upward motion that produced the 1"+ rains in the KMDT area...!
So once we get through this unsettled weekend, enjoy our spell of Indian Summer as the hounds of winter will be lurking just to the NW for later next week and certainly the 1st week of November...below is for Halloween!
Happy Week's End!
Smitty
AA: Looking at a cyclone of all levels of the atmosphere!
Just a very quick post to alert y'all that this upcoming month of November has the potential to be quite cold! If the modeling verifies even remotely, then we will experience a rather intense and widespread lake effect outbreak early in the month and the continual NW flow at all levels will drive ARCTIC air south and east across the lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic and NE! Here is the 15 day anomaly for temps...please understand that the further out in time one goes, the modeling tends to gravitate to the "means". So to see an anomaly of this quantity is rare indeed...that is one cold looking map!
And just to show you one of the many medium range members of the GFS ensembles....wow!
But next week will be the best of what mid-autumn can offer! Look at the temp anomaly to the upside for the middle of next week! Quite mild...don't cha think? Also note the gathering gloom up in BC getting ready to drive itself SE!
Now here is the upper air flow 15 days out. Again, a regression to the means is in order and a zonal flow appears to be occurring. However, note the "warm" anomaly near Alaska...when that occurs, the lower 48 can get drilled with a direct discharge of Arctic air that even at this early in cold wx season can actually be QUITE COLD!
So to me, it is now starting to appear that at the very least, the 1st part of November will be quite cold when comparing to the "norms"! And many of us have not experienced a cold November in a few years. This is just the temperature anomalies over just the last 2 years...Wow...that is a mild, and lake effect free map!
So if this World Series ends up being the Cards vs Tigers...it could be one awfully cold WS 2012! Playing baseball is risky in the lower 48 during the month of November...ESPECIALLY in towns that are continental (St. Louis) or of northern climes (Detroit). And is anyone really surprised that A-Rod is not playing to his $30 million paycheck should suggest? Once that cheater can no longer take the juice, he's just as ordinary as any other 30 something player whose bat speed has slowed commensurate with their age! As the Trumpster would tell him..."You're Fired"!
Enjoy your week's end! The wx next week will be awesome! (Except for some rain next Tuesday...).
Smitty
AA: A bit of rain Thursday night into Friday am...then a bit unsettled weekend...but getting better next week with the exception of some rain next Tuesday pm...I believe the 1st part of November looks to be quite cold in these parts!
