Suddenly Autumnal

As I sit here this Sunday morning perusing the weather models, maps, and satellite imagery,  the wind and rain are pounding down outside announcing the arrival of yet another shot of polar air.  That large high pressure sitting out over Mizzou and the deep ocean storm off of the New England coast is creating quite a gradient over our region.  Hence the blustery conditions anticipated for Sunday funday.  Below is the current surface map...note the snow showers depicted in the lee of the lakes.

In fact, while glancing at some college football yesterday, the snow was flying in Madison.  Here is a graphic showing the snows around the northern and western lakes for Saturday.  This is the air that will be over us today...

And the forecast temps for Harrisburg over the next 10 days.  I placed a red line on the chart indicating the normal max for this 10 day stretch...quite chilly to be sure for the end of October.

This a map of the the rest of October as per the Euro ensembles...pretty chilly to be sure over the eastern part of North America...

You know it has been quite mild this October here in the eastern part of the US less Maine, but the cold has been bold across the plains of O Canada and our northern plains as seen in the month to date map below.  Also note the warmth over the Arctic Ocean and Alaska, but the cold over Greenland.

In fact, it's been warm over most of Europe as well this October.  The upwelling of cold water in the Black Sea shows up very nicely in the graphic below.  A sea of cold in a continent of warmth.  The cold water from below sure appears out of place, but the persistent southerly flow has done its dirty work and brought the deeper colder water to the surface...pretty neat...

And the Euro seems to think we are in for quite a cold period.  The map below shows the next month's cold air over the next month of time...

But the American Climate Forecast System is at odds with the Euro.  Personally, I have more faith in the Euro longer range modeling. Take a look...

OK...gotta get going.  Kinda knew this was what we were in for with both the weather and the world series.  I will be rooting for the BoSox as much as that pains me.  But I will be more so rooting for some exciting baseball for the upcoming fall classic.  The games being played in bean town will be chilly, especially once that sun sets!

Enjoy your Sunday and this mellow ditty that mentions the changing of the seasons quite eloquently...

Smitty

AA:  Looks to be pretty chilly the upcoming couple of weeks!  The grass will slow down in its growing and you'll be able to enjoy some Red Sox baseball in the WS!