Cool to Rule First Half of May (04-30-2011)

Enjoy your splendid weather this weekend as once this passes, it looks as if yet another round of unsettled weather will be very close by until the persistent NW flow takes over later this week and through the middle of the month.  While we in the mid-Atlantic and northeast will enjoy a nice weekend, severe weather will yet again rear its ugly head down in the Arklotex region of our country; albeit not nearly as fierce as what was just experienced this past week in that same general region.  This is thanks to another powerful spring mid-latitude cyclone that is maturing in the northern plains as you can see from the map below:

Once this storm pulls NE into O Canada, the associated fronts will move east with a little resistance from the upper ridge in the SE US.  That is what will cause our unsettled conditions for Monday....but we may stay mostly dry as the upper ridge holds tough and keeps the wetness at bay to our west....(Jason Bay OPS of .898 since his return but with 8K in 27AB....sorry I digress....ADD you know!).  However, by Wednesday a stronger system will be affecting our region with much greater upper air support that could lead to a bout of some moderate severe wx depending on the timing of storm passage.  It's strange, but this synoptic set up could also support snowfall in the mountains of western PA, and western MD...up into New England!  If the storm comes through during the max heating of the day, I do believe that severe T-storms will develop with this dynamically active system SE of the mountains......

Once that passes, the NW flow will dominate as far as the modeling can see.  I am becoming more and more confident that May will end up being ~2-4ºF below normal for the entire month which is quite a deviation from normal.  Below is the ensembles depiction of the middle of the 2nd week of May being quite cool in the middle of the atmosphere. 

As a result, instability will rule and ample opportunity for showers and T-storms will be prevalent.  It will obviously not be as wet as this wettest April on record we've just experienced (9.46 inches for the month of April 2011 at KMDT), but soil moisture will remain high through the middle of the month at the very least.  The map below was created a week ago, so the green areas will expand after this past week's rainfall!

As for the upcoming Derby Day forecast, timing is difficult, but it looks as if the Oaks could be warm and wet while the Derby cool and dry.  Another vort max will be spinning under a large upper low and making the visitors to Churchill Downs either delighted or drenched.  For us during that Friday-Saturday time frame, the weather looks cool and dry.....but that is a week away.

To alleviate that uncertainty, any attendee or interested party should simply pick 3 numbers and box them for $1 all day in exactas.  In a 12 race card, that investment of $72 could possibly pay sweet dividends if just one or two of your races hit!  And you get a heartbeat at that....and not just from watching the approaching cumulonimbus!

Enjoy the beaytiful weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Rain nearby all week after Sunday, most likely Wednesday, cooler and drier end of the week.  Run for the Roses on Saturday; beat the early favorite of Uncle Mo!

Tragic Tornado Totals (04-28-2011)

Just a brief dissertation using my new best friend; Google's Blogspot to which my one colleague introduced me!  The more I thought about this fierce tornadic outbreak, the more historic it is clearly becoming.  I will let the graphics do the talking....

The 1st graphic simply shows the number of tornadoes that have occurred to this point in the month of April.  This is by far the greatest number of observed tornadoes during the month of April; possibly any month EVER! 

Upon inspection of this graphic, the super outbreak of 1974 will clearly be surpassed by April 2011.  Some of you may recall the Xenia, Ohio F5 tornado as this was well documented for that time of wx study.  Look at the total tornadic tracks for that infamous April outbreak:

And here is the surface map for that April day as well.  Compare both then and yesterday's map! 

Now last evening's map........Fairly similar, eh?....

Thanks to the severe wx outbreaks this month, 2011 is clearly becoming the measuring stick for maximum tornadic activity....and it's not even May as of this writing!  May is climatologically the most active month of severe weather on average nationwide.  It is quite astonishing looking at this graphic and the totals of these twisters that have occurred during this month of April:

And even if we have a normal month of May in terms of severe weather, 2011 will go down as an anomalously large number of twisters in modern times....simply astonishing!

As for the local impacts of the severe weather, one must speak with Yokes to get a first hand account of what it is like to drive through a tornado as he did so this morning in the hamlet of Palmyra.  The NWS did confirm this as an EF0, but cool as a cucumber Yokes needed no change of shorts!  As for others' accounts of their journeys to work, it was primarily one of traffic woes and flooded roads; not nearly as adventurous as our newly christened storm chaser!  I shared this graphic of the rapid rise of the Yellow Breeches with several people today; this is graphic organizer of a flash flood!

I believe our fishing guru referred to this as stream "blow-out".  In my younger days, I called it a canoeing opportunity; now I'm just in awe of the power of nature and feel for those who have the misfortune of flooded basements and water issues.  And for those of you with river interests, the mighty Susquehanna is forecast to crest at just under 20' this Saturday.

I guess mother nature was rockin' out these last few weeks listening to that wonderous orchestral hit from Led Zeppelin's album Houses of the Holy of March 1973, "The Rain Song"........Upon us all, a little rain must fall.....  But mother nature got so wrapped up in John Paul Jones' keyboard artistry that she failed to listen to Robert Plant's epilogue.......just a little rain!

Enjoy your Friday....and more importantly, a well deserved sunny and seventy Saturday!

Smitty

AA:  Tornado count summary (April 2011 is a record breaking month and 2011 most likely a record breaking year), Yokes the new Storm Chaser, some flooding graphics, and good luck in Erie!

(04-28-2011) Historic Severe Weather Outbreak!

Hey ya'll....let's face it.  It's not everyday that I have a commute of 1 hour and 15 minutes on an April 28!  It was a real treat just to get out to the highway, but once there, stop and go was the rule since the 2nd Street Exit going down in Harrisburg was closed.  After I witnessed the aftermath of a car hydroplane into the median on I-81, the real adventure began!  With my usual route through Linglestown permanently closed for a temporary improvement, I toured the backstreets of metropolis of Linglestown.  After venturing on roads I did not even know existed, eventually, I made my way into CDHS!  I never experienced this type of situation in my 27 years of this commute!  All this after being under a TORNADO WARNING until 6 am this morning at my humble abode.  Now I only received 0.98 inches of rain during the 1.5 hours of heavy rain in my area, but over here in the Linglestown area, report (reliable) of 2.25 inches in the hour were observed.  In fact, one observer had a rate of his Davis Instrument of 9.50+ inches per hour rate!  Yes, nearly 10" of rain per hour rate.....unbelievable!

Below is the prelim report of the severe wx from yesterday:  Quite a storm to be sure....

At last check, the mid lat cyclone that created this mess was deepening to 988 mb over Lake Huron.  Gusty W and WNW winds will cover our area this evening ushering in cooler and drier air through Sunday.  There is a possibility of a brief instability shower Friday afternoon as the heating by the sun cooks up a passing but very brief shower, but the chances for this are low in my opinion.

I'm trying this format to see if this is more user friendly....let me know what you think....and keep it clean JB and to less than 100 words....if that is even possible for you!

Smitty

AA:  Historic severe wx outbreak April 26-28, 2011, new format,  and enjoy Erie, if you're traveling there this weekend!