Cool to Rule 1st Half of October

This is a very quick post (since I am under the wx) to update everyone as to the potency of the cold air masses that will invade the eastern part of North America over the next 2 weeks.  First, I will show you maps of temperature normalized anomalies in DEGREES FAHRENHEIT  for the next week at different days...so here goes...first for Sunday...quite chilly with snow falling or have fallen over the mtns of PA to the tune of a couple of inches on the highest ground...

Then this upcoming Thursday...the purplish color is ~15-20ºF below the norms...

How about next Saturday...if this verifies, it will be max temps in the mid 40s for us near KMDT!

Now...in degrees Celsius...the average of the next 8 days...(Remember the are 1.8 degrees F for every 1.0 C...so basically look at the scale and double it for the F equivalent...its a good guesstimate...sort of...).

And then for the 2nd week or days 8-16...

When you take all 16 days coming up according to the modeling and average the temperature anomalies, it looks something like this...that is one cold month of October east of the Rockies!

OK...and if the early season chill is not enough for y'all, check out this you tube video for a taste of the properties of this air mass moving south and east!

And enjoy the Cool Columbus Day weekend...Sunday will be raw...will not make it to 50ºF!

Smitty

AA:  Cool beginning of October.  Good for archery!

Cool Damp Weekend

Enjoy the next couple of days because the wx will turn sour over the weekend.  The modeling is in remarkably good agreement with the synoptics and the timing of these features, so the confidence is rather high in what should transpire over the next several days.  After we reach a max temp today (Wed) in the low to mid 80s...yes that's right...the temps and the humidity will back down the next 2 days making Thursday and Friday splendid fall days.  Although there is a slight chance of showers Thursday morning, most of the next 3 days will be rain free.  Take a look at the SREF plumes...

Then, a rather potent front will be making its way across PA on Saturday.  Along with that will be widespread showers and some gusty conditions following the frontal passage.  Here are the temps one mile up as per the Euro model for Saturday.  Note the strong temperature gradient...ie...the front!

And the Euro spins up a little storm along the front as seen in the model below for Sunday.  This will give us a rather cloudy and rainy day of sorts for Sunday, especially in the morning hours...

...and EVEN SNOW across the northern parts of PA!  Wow!  The snowfall will be even greater in parts of the interior further northeast; say like up in New England and the Adirondacks!  Also note the deep snow pack beginning north of Lake Superior in O Canada!

Here is the official forecast for max temps for Sunday.  Note that a large part of western PA stays in the 40s for highs!  It's early for this type of chill! 

And here is how the NWS handles the official map for Saturday with the frontal passage.  They have the position of the front east of central PA by late morning.  I believe the passage will be more like midday.  The little wave down in LA and the deep south will be the rainmaker for us on Sunday...

So there you have it warm followed by cold and damp!  But I must quickly leave you with this.  I was listening to XM baseball this morning on my commute and the discussion was whether Migs Cabrera or Mike Trout should be the AL MVP?  Cabrera looks as if he will win THE TRIPLE CROWN!  Are you kidding?  This guy is by far the best offensive player in all of baseball and is earning a baseball title that only few have ever earned (16 I believe) and most of those triple crown winners were NOT FROM Modern baseball times!  Carl Yazstremski in 1967 was the last TC winner!  So this is a no brainer for me...

Enjoy your warm wx as this week comes to a close...

Smitty

AA:  Nice for a couple of days; the a cool and damp weekend!  Cabrera should easily be the MVP!  A TC winner...c'mon!

Surge of Summer Followed By A Fall to Fall

For those of you who like summer, you'll experience summer's last gasp Wednesday into Thursday.  Take a look at the temperature's forecast by the GFS for tomorrow...~15ºF above normal!  The low 80s look like a real possibility!  And it will be humid to boot...so enjoy the warmth if that's your style!

Because the wx will be quickly transitioning to autumn and will be doing so with some rather chilly air coming down from O Cananda!  Here are the temps forecast for this Saturday...Look at those cold colors over the high plains!  -21ºF+ from normal...WOW!

And here in PA for Columbus Day, we are looking at middle of Novemeber wx for that celebration!

And the below normal temps last into the foreseeable future...here is the following weekend!

Man alive, if the Detroit Tigers make a deep run into the playoffs, there could be some rather chilly...albeit downright cold baseball being played into the middle or late October!  At least Detroit isn't leeward in any favored lake effect belts!  The modeling most certainly sees the coldness of this air mass as it tries to put down a little of winter's wonder over northern PA this upcoming weekend!  The cold air and the upper air dynamics do make this a rather distinct and intriguing possibility!

Climbing Angel Falls on the Loyalsock Trail would be an awesome trip with snow around in the higher elevations of Lycoming and Sullivan Counties in north central PA! It would be a shame to lose the spectacular fall folliage as seen overlooking Canyon Vista...

But isn't this just a bit crazy?  The Loyalsock Trail is now re-routed away from Angel Falls due to overuse in the area...but it is still one incredible geologic feature to scope in Penn's Woods!

And this is one incredible meteorological feature...a large deep trough forecast by the GFS for later this weekend into Columbus Day!  It certainly has the cross polar signature...

Even the CPC agrees the cold is a-comin'!

 

Remeber last winter when Alaska was brutally cold and we were experiencing a rather beneign winter!  Well, look at AK in the above graphic!  When its cold here, its "mild" there and vice versa...

 

So there you have it.  Enjoy the last regular season day of MLB and the summer time warmth because the bottom looks to be dropping out and autumn will arrive with a nasty outbreak of unseasonably chilly wx for Columbus Day weekend.  Saturday will be a wet transitional day into a rather autumnal Sunday-Tuesday period!  Good football wx...so they say!

 

Enjoy some warm apple cider...fermented or otherwise...

...and this ditty from Neil Young singing about the moon we just experienced last weekend!



Enjoy your mid-week!

 

Smitty

 

AA:  Warm to uncomfortable Wednesday...followed by a cool down through Friday...then becoming quite fall-like for Sunday on...