Football Friday Night Lights Forecast

Before I get there, I just have to comment on the change of the air mass yesterday afternoon.  From humid and mild in the morning to cool and dry late afternoon, this was about as an abrupt change one will observe any time of the year.  The record cold at International Falls, MN of 19F broke their all-time record for September....ever!  The previous record was 20 in 1956 and 1965, both achieved much later in the month!  Here are the current temps as of 5 am this morning.  The pool of cool is now over the northern lakes.....

And the current wx map to coincide with the above temps.....

As for the Football Friday Kickoff Forecast, it doesn't get much easier than this with that huge high being the dominant force on the weather field.  Below are the progged temps for kickoff...

With the wind forecast as well....basically light and variable.

It was a crisp, clear morning when i walked outside this early Friday morning.  For any of you who looked up, it was a beautiful waning gibbous moon placed just north of a very bright Jupiter!  Then, looking south with the hint of October in the air, the Winter Triangle was glaring down at me with Orion in his hunting  posture!  Simply beautiful!  This was the position at moonrise last evening....

Have a great Football Friday!

Smitty

AA:  Football wx is here!  Coldest temps ever this early in the ice box capitol of the states....International Falls,  Minnesota!

Hibbing, MN

Just a very quick post, since some of us have to work, of the overnight temps observed at Hibbing, MN.  This is very early in the season to have a hard freeze!

Here is a very brief look at the current temps across the lower 48. 

And the current surface map....look at what the huge high pressure system can do to the temps!

Gotta go to educate the little cherubs....by the way, the earliest the Phillies ever clinched a playoff spot AND the 19th losing season for the Pirates....North American team sports record!  Ouch!

Have a good Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  Baby it's cold in Minnesota!

Satellite Survey of Lee and His Wrath

Although some meteorologists claim that the flood of 2011 was not a result of tropical storm Lee, I beg to differ.  Sure, there was a large upper trough that captured the circulation of Lee and it never DIRECTLY affected PA until it pulled out Sunday afternoon and evening.  However, without Lee, you would not have had the tropical infusion of moisture from deep in the tropics thanks to the sub-tropical jet.  Below is a snapshot of the satellite imagry from the animation link seen below.  This is a 7 day loop of the movement of TS Lee and Hurricane Katia off the east coast....this is awesome!

And here is the quicktime link that is incredible.  What did we do without satellites?

http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/52000/52066/lee_goe_201109_sd.mov

And I stumbled across this image of the Susquehanna at Harrisburg.  Looks like chocolate milk from the north dairy country!

Of course, all of this sediment must pass to the ocean in this endless cycle of the earth's systems.  Here is the sediment suspended in the flow of the moving water that eventually emptied into the Chesapeake Bay.  As many of you know, there is a tremendous amount of fine silt and mud in the flood waters as seen when the waters receed.  Since the mass of the silt is so small, it takes very little current to keep the silt suspended and moving.  Once the water remains still, the silt that was brought into an area deposits and many times in spades! The amount of silt and mud is simply amazing!  The graphic below is high res so if you click on it, it may allow you to really scutinize the region. 

You can locate many of these photos from the link at the right entitled Earth Observatory.  And once you get there, take a few minutes to get lost in all of the connecting and related links. 

From a personal standpoint, you can look at the graphic below that shows the incredible flood that occurred on the Swatara Creek.  But to witness the widespread damage and destruction that occurred in the vicinity of the Swatty in the Hummelstown area was just unfathomable.  This is a flood that the people who lived through the horrors of this event will be talking of for their remaining years no doubt.  I saw debris on a tree adjacent to the stream approximately 20' above the creek's level today.  In order for that to have occurred, a widespread flood of colassal proportions had to be in progress as suggested by the immediately surrounding topography.  No wonder just this afternoon another body trapped in a car was found buried in the creek far from any access road.  Just incredibly sad.  Keep in mind, the previous high water record was 16.1 feet!  And the Swatty stayed in flood for over 4 days!  Wow............

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/09/missing_susquehanna_township_m.html

As for our upcoming weather, the cool surge from O Canada will be newsworthy.  There is a possibility of a killing frost/hard freeze in the northern plains putting an end to an already short growing season.  If you recall, the planting of grain crops in IA, MN, and WI was delayed by cold and wet conditions this past spring.  If this outbreak materializes, it looks as if grain comoditites could once again surge to new records.  Look at the anomalies for Thursday in the plains!

But as is so often the case in the middle of the continent, a week later, a surge of summer returns to the northern plains!  From 20+ below normal to 20+ above normal!  Wow!

I believe all of this is caused by global warming.....

Have a good Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  Some impressive satellite imagery of the recent flooding.  Temperature flip-flops the next 2 weeks.....more so in the plains than in the east.

Cool to Rule the End of the Week

Just a very brief post to confirm what most of you have already heard and that is the fact that cool air will invade PA later this week.  The first map below is from the global model GFS showing the 850 mb level which is about one mile above the surface.  This level tends to show the true movement of the air without surface effects; a truer metric of the air mass movement.  Now the trough is deep, but not as deep as originally believed earlier in the model runs.

The SREFs show the low temps Friday morning.  We will see many places locally in the upper 30s!  Remember, this is an average of many runs which tends to normalize the output.  As a result, temps could be a few degrees cooler than what you see here.

And here is one specific run that is often accurate in the short term.  So with light northerly winds and clear skies under a large area of high pressure, frost will most certainly occur as close to us in places of north central PA!  Also note how the lakes hold their heat and extend the growing season inland well into the fall.

Now this is a fall weekend all in these parts could use!  The map below is for Saturday morning.  Temps will be even cooler upon rising from our slumber Saturday am.

Have a good Tuesday....

Smitty

AA:  Cool air on the move for later in the week.  We will need to dodge some showers Wednesday afternoon as the real cold front passes through.

Never Forget

I would be remiss not to mention on this the 10th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attack on America, how the weather greatly aided the attackers in their mission.  Aviation and meteorology go hand in hand.  This is why historically most official observation sites are located airports.  Wx obs are crucial for aviation.  The surface map in terms of pressures for that infamous day of September 11, 2001 is shown below.  This map is not too dissimilar from what is progged to occur later this week.  Look at the sprawling area of high pressure that made flying easy (unfortunately) on Sept 11, 2001.  It was clear sailing from TX north to MN and east to New England!

Here are the 4 flight paths in question on that day of infamy.

So the weather most certainly cooperated with the attackers on that late summer-early fall day.  Had there been a hurricane or tropical system similar to what we've had over the last 2 weeks here in the east, history would most certainly have been changed.  I'm not saying that these attacks would have been prevented.  But in a touch of irony, in the height of the hurricane season statistically, none were evident in the eastern part of North America on September 11, 2001!  Look at the frequency chart below and note how this day marks the peak of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin....

Let's never forget that day!

Smitty

AA:  How the weather affected the plot of the September 11, 2001 attacks.



Tranquility Returns

After a rough and wild ride weather-wise, the atmosphere is calming down for the eastern US.  We still have the remnants of Lee to deal with through Monday as a cut-off upper low gradually fills and vacates the upper Ohio Valley.  What this means for us is that a weakness or boundary or stationary front (call it what you will) will continue to be in our region lying in an east-west fashion.  Thus with the heating of the day, don't be surprised to still have a heavy downpour seeing the atmosphere still has ample leftover moisture thanks to the tropics moving over us this last week!  Here is the latest WV image to show the boundary (marked in red).  What is to come for mid-week and beyond is north of the blue dotted line.

And what is north of that blue dashed line is a plethora of cool air.  This will be our first genuine autumnal outbreak over the eastern half of North America.  Frosts will be observed over many states later this week in the Great Lake States, the Northern Plains, and New England.  I would not be surprised to see reports of frost in the hollows of northern PA!  Here is the deviation from normal from the GEFS for later this week.  Remember, this is an average, so often times when extremes are shown, they manifest in an even more extreme manner.

That is a very widespread area of below normal, with that very welcome -18F bulls-eye over KS and OK.  As for us look for temps to be about 15F below normal for Friday with daytime highs struggling to reach 65F!  Here is the official max temp map put out by HPC for this upcoming football Friday.  I do believe many places in New England will remain in the 50s for highs Friday and Saturday.

And all of this fine autumn weather is compliments of our friends from the north.  It is being sent to us via this huge high pressure system as it drifts slowly SE from the source regions of the hinterlands of the lands of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.  Some modeling has the high pressure at +1034mb...if it were January, we'd be looking at potentially a sub-zero day here in PA!  The cool air will not blast in, but it will come in waves and be here in earnest (and in Harrisburg) by Thursday.  The low pressure NE of Nova Scotia is the remnants of Maria which SHOULD stay east of the east coast of the US this week...again compliments to this huge high pressure advecting SE from O' Canada.

So a return to tranquility atmospherically...and a return to normalcy as much as humanly possible as the weather events of the last couple weeks around here have made for some hardships amongst our friends, family, and peers.  And through all of this nasty weather, it is still somewhat refreshing to see that some things don't change.  I was hoping and hoodwinked early that PSU could play on the same field as Alabama.  However, that 'Bama team is solid:  solid O, strong and quick D, and fundamentally sound.  3 turnovers is simply unacceptable when playing any team, let alone a team that is superior.  The methodical movement of the ball by the Tide was textbook!  Nothin' Fancy, just pound the football and make some plays when throwing the ball down field.  Pretty simple!  At least the Phillies held up their end of the bargain and did not make my sports Saturday a total loss.  Now let's sweep the Brew-Crew and send a message for this October.

Have a great Sunday and a good upcoming week....and hopefully a time to dry out.

Smitty

AA:  Get through Monday with the threat of some pop up showers and then dry and cooler will be the rule this week.  Actually chilly to some Thursday-Saturday!