Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
The title refers to the wonderful autumnal wx we will be experiencing this upcoming week in the greater KMDT region. Climatology suggests high temps around 75ºF with low temps around 55ºF over the upcoming 10 days or so. With ample sun and light refreshing pm breezes, the daytime wx will be spectacular. That is not the case for those in the Lower Rio Grand Valley and eastern Mexico along the Gulf coast and mountains just inland. Possibly one of the stronger tropical systems will develop in the upcoming 24-48 hrs before coming ashore in the LRGV and deliver true heartache to our amigos in Mexico. Take a look from topside of Isabel...
...and a wider angle view for your bearings...
Personally, I believe Ingrid will strengthen to a Cat 2 or 3 before moving into Mexico about 100 miles south of Brownsville, TX. But let's get back to here in our region and take a look at the temps for the month to date...if you think that there has been a warm bias, well people, you'd be correct! See graphically for yourselves...Big ridge in western N. America with a tendency for cooler wx over the eastern part of the continent. But every so often, some of that heat surged eastward like we experienced last week with 2 days in the 90s in these parts. If you are wondering why there is so much blue over the 4 corners region, that is due to the recent flooding rains that have made the news with the flash flooding that has occurred in the foothills of the CO Rockies. But in large, warm and dry has been the rule for the bulk of the CONUS since September began.
And dry it looks to remain in these parts for this upcoming week...take a look...
Temps will swing very slightly this week beginning slightly below normal and moderate as the week progresses. Here is the Euro's take on the temps at 850 mb for the following periods...first the initialization of the model for last Friday evening...
...and now next Friday evening...
Lastly, 10 days out into the future...just another "normal" refreshing air mass diving into the Mid-Atlantic from our friends in O Canada...
The next 4 days appear to be the greatest days from climatological norms in terms of temps as depicted by the Euro...
The operational and especially the ensembles really smooth out the extremes for the 6-10 day period...no wild colors on the map essentially! So if you like "normal" September wx, sans 'Canes, then I believe you'll like what is in store for the next week or two.
Here is the CFS' take on the remainder of the month in terms of temps...ever so slightly above normal is the literal read here...note the cooler blue over the Rio Grande Valley as the model is "sensing" water in the soils to temper hot temps...
OK...'nuff of the wx...after all it is September and beginning to enter the heart of NCAA football season. The "Game of the Week" is A&M v 'Bama. Personally, I'd like to see the Tide D simply shut down and shut up Johnny Football. Not so sure it will be that easy; however, lay the points, parlay the under, and Roll Tide!
As for Manning Bowl III, as I hinted earlier this week, I just think the Giants might give older bro Peyton a run for his money. No real reasons, gut feelin'...
And how 'bout them Bucs, playing relevant games into late September! Now, they simply need to get onto a bit of roll on this long home stand and beat the teams they should...like the Cubbies last night, especially when you go back-back-back and they still came up short. Baseball is funny...
I'll leave you with this little ditty about those Old September Blues...but frankly, this wx shouldn't really promote any blues over the next week or so...Enjoy!
And enjoy your September Football Weekend!
Smitty
AA: Nice, normal September wx over the next week or so...and probably until the last week of the month! Mowing to be lessened thanks to drier than normal conditions, too.
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has central PA in a slight risk of severe wx for Thursday...Take a look at the graphic below...
I believe that this forecast will come to fruition as today we are experiencing an anomalously warm and humid day for mid September as the GFS points out!
However, come Saturday, we will be experiencing mid-autumn chill in these parts!
With that little bit said, simply be aware of the potential for some particularly feisty storms blowing through the KMDT area Thursday mid-day on into the later afternoon. Now carry on.....
And so it is...very warm...no, downright hot for this time of year! And tomorrow will be no picnic either! Here is the current temps as analyzed by the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis.
With the current humid air mass now in place, heat indices are certainly in the mid to upper 90s...something we DID NOT encounter during all of August if you hung around KMDT! Tomorrow might be a few degrees warmer. Note the mid 90s just west of "Bean-town"! Those New Englanders won't know what hit 'em!
But relief is on the way in the form of a rather potent cold front...here are the Euro's interpretation of the 850 mb temps Thursday pm...
In fact, the GFS paints a 2.5 -3.0 Standard Deviation below norms for Saturday! Quite a cool shot for this time of year! If going to PSU, expect instability showers and lots of stratocumulus to make this mid September day more like late October!
Announcing the arrival of the front will be some rather potent storms as per the NAM. Here is the line of storms; however, I feel the line will be even more intense as depicted by this regional model. I don't have the time to show you all of the modeling and the intense upward motion thanks to the forcing of the steep lapse rates and the intrusion of the much drier air at ALL levels...so I'll spare you the dissertation about autumnal severe wx threats...but be aware, just keep an eye to the NW sky Thursday...
By the way, the 850 mb temps for noon Saturday in central and northern PA are BELOW FREEZING! Go one mile up and temps will be in the 20s! Wow! That reason alone is concern for severe wx for Thursday!
Thus, if you enjoy heat and humidity, take it all in today and Wednesday! You might not see this again until May or June of 2014 around KMDT. Oh, we will get warm again this fall, but not like this...
We are +20F from yesterday; Saturday we will have trouble touching 65F!
OK...enough said for today! Being that it is so warm and humid, I think I leave y'all with this Rolling Stone #13 all-time fav for summertime dittys...As described by Rolling Stone Magazine below... One of the signature soft-rock groups of the early Seventies, Jim Seals and Dash Crofts were childhood buddies from Texas who moved to California and had a huge hit with this sublimely mellow, CSN&Y-style ode to lazy, June-time domesticity. "Summer Breeze" rolled through the jasmine of America's mind in 1972, with an innocent melody played on a toy piano.
Enjoy!
By the way, don't sell the Giants short in "Manning Bowl III" this Sunday...just sayin'...
Enjoy your mid-week...
Smitty
AA: Hot Wednesday, stormy Thursday, interesting time for Friday night lights, downright fall-like for Saturday, NFL Sunday.
