Looking For Winter & a District 3 AAAA Football Championship

Over the last several days, I have been looking as to how we will snap out of our above normal pattern in terms of temperature and slide into winter.  Well, I do believe that winter type temperatures will be here by the middle of this upcoming week, possibly with just a tiny bit of wet snow followed by a siege of some very cold air from O Canada.  The Midwest and the Plains states will get their bout of winter early in the week with 2 storms that cut to our west.  This will allow for a few final days of above normal temps until the bottom drops out for us by next week.  Let me explain all of this with the use of our wonderful computer modeling and simulations.  The pic below is the Earth Science Research Lab (ESRL) in Boulder, Colorado.  Who wouldn't want to report their to work every day?  Earth Sciences and location...wow!

Here are the GFS ensembles showing that we will once again be above normal for the early part of this upcoming week.  KMDT is ~150 Heating Degree Days below normal to this point in the heating season.  Enjoy those savings since cold air is beginning to move.  Note the pool of cold over the desert SW.  That is the area of the storm formations that will ride up to our west and lay down some snowfalls over the plains early this week.

Here is a map of where the GFS believes the accumulations will occur by Wednesday.  Note the 3 areas of where I circled in LIME GREEN the places where storms will lay down the winter carpet.  The broadening swath up through NE, IA, and WI will be the most vigorous and begin to allow the cold air to advect south into the lower 48.  The model sees some very light accumulations in the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic, but that will be more of a few flakes flying, but nonetheless, the temps are getting cold enough to support snowfall.

Once that 3rd wave passes off to our north and east, then the cold air will make in roads to PA by the end of this upcoming week.  Look at the raw anomalies first for our warmest weather this week...maybe the warmest for all of December...and then for the end of this upcoming week.  Here is Tuesday:

And by Thursday, below normal temps are prevalent over the entire country.

Then, by next weekend, the potential exists for the proverbial bottom to drop out!  Look at the -20ºF deviations from normal in the Ohio Valley poised to come at the Mid-Atlantic.  That most certainly can set the stage for some wintry type precip once that cold air gets established and begins to fall under attack from the warmer and more humid air that lurks down in the gulf!  By the way, normals for the middle of December for KMDT are ~41ºF and ~27ºF.  So as you can see, we've been above normal here of late, but most certainly feeling colder in the most recent days.  If the map below would verify, we'd be looking at daytime maxes struggling to reach the freezing mark!  Now that would be one cold smack in the face; reality check I like to call it!

Looking further into December, the picture gets a bit murky with the teleconnections of the AO, NAO, the PNA, the EPO, and the MJO all showing conflicting signs!  But here is the GFS ensembles for 372 hours or ~15 days hence.  This takes us out to one week prior to the visit from the big red dressed jolly old elf from the north country.  Note the cross polar component to the 500 mb heights.  This has the potential to be a very cold outbreak for mid and late month and energy use for the northern part of the country will be on the rise.  Again, natgas prices currently at ~$3.35/million BTU at the Henry Hub should gain ~$0.50/million BTU within a week as more and more weather forecasters see this cold air coming into play, especially for the energy mongers of the northeast US!  Again, disclaimer...any investments you make on my opinions are yours and yours alone!  Energy futures are extremely speculative and involve substantial risk!  The information that I provide or that is derived from this blog should not be a substitute for advice from an investment professional.  Smitty strongly encourages you to obtain personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent analyses before acting on this information that I provide for entertainment purposes.  However, if you feel that you can make a buck or two in the energy markets; have at it!  Only you can determine what level of risk is appropriate for you.  

The map below is relatively new product known as the "Reforecast" project is constructed at the ESRL; Physical Sciences Division (PSD).  It has produced a dataset of historical weather forecasts generated with a the numerical models and has accounted for model errors and biases.  Therefore, the primary advantage with this "reforecast" dataset is that model forecast errors can be diagnosed and corrected, thereby dramatically increasing the forecast skill.  Although in its infancy, this type of reanalysis will greatly enable forecasters to gain further confidence as they peer more distantly into the future.  Look at the cold coming for the central and eastern US in the 8-14 day period!  And as the map shows above, will likely to continue towards Christmas Day!

OK...I've geeked long enough here.  Its just that...really...who needs cable TV with all of these outstanding products offered by NOAA.  I'm scared that Congress will cut funding to this scientific venture similar to what occurred at NASA!  But that will be a different rant for a different day...As for today, go Rams!  Listen, when you're playing high school football in December, you've got a good team!  Be aware your opponent is equally as competitive and we all know we are talking high school athletes; thus, just about any outcome is possible!  All the "Xs" and "Os" can't overcome some of the intangibles associated with the adolescent players.  Compete at a high level for 4 solid quarters of mistake free football and chances are fairly good that you live to play another week!  So tonight at Hershey Park Stadium (and the wx will be a non-factor...at kickoff at 6 pm:  ~39ºF, mostly clear skies, light east wind (towards press box)!), the AAAA District 3 champion will be crowned and here's hoping that the football AAAA trophy will be hoisted by Coach Mac and his troops!

Have a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  After a mild couple of days, cold air will begin to invade PA.  We may see a few wet snowflakes at the onset of the colder air invasion Wednesday or so, but nothing to get excited about. Then it appears the cold will lock in for a couple of weeks.  Looking forward to the AAAA football D3 championship game at HP Stadium!

Farewell Fall; Welcome Winter

December, January, and February are the 3 coldest months of the year climatologically here in the Mid-Atlantic region and more specifically, Dec 5-Mar 5!  So as we say goodbye to the extremely wet fall thanks to Irene and Lee in August & September, the eerily strange snowfall of Halloween weekend, and the amiable mild November, we now await what December has in store for us, many wondering where true winter wx is?  Well, be careful what you wish for!  Next week I do believe that much below normal temps will embrace the majority of the nation and the potential for an early season snowfall is most certainly on the potential radar.  Both the GFS and the Euro show some rather strong digging troughs entering the lower 48 that will at the very least offer intense lake effect squalls and could generate a larger scale synoptic storm over the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England states for the middle of next week.  Before we get to that, lets look at the climo graph for KMDT through November.  Note the recent warmth the last week of November.  Also note the 70.40" of rainfall to date!  Amazing!

Now onto next week with numerous maps.  I will first show the GFS for next Wednesday 3 hours apart.  What this map shows is a very strong trough that is spinning up a storm that will potentially dump ~0.75 inch of precip falling as snow according to the 0ºC line being to our south and east.

The above map is for Wednesday morning and the map below is for late morning Wednesday:

And the upper air maps to support this cyclogenesis:

The above is the 500 mb vorticity map and the below is the same parameter for again late morning Wednesday.  That is a strengthening negatively titled trough which has the potential to deliver a fierce bout of winter wx!

And later in the day Wednesday...that is one angry looking vort max!  Things may be rather volatile for the middle of next week.

The ECMWF agrees to some extent, but not with the exact timing.  Look at the depth of that cold pool!

With another severe shot of cold waiting in the wings for a second shot of Arctic air arriving later in the week and next weekend.  That is a huge Arctic High at 1040 mb lurking over the Canadian prairies.

Time will tell how all of this transpires.  But the models are telling us that the pattern is changing and cold air is on the move.  Does this lock in and hold the cold for the 1st part of the winter or are these troughs transient?  It's still a bit murky.  Here are the GFS ensembles take on the NAO trending negative by the middle of December.  There is great spread however among the various members of the ensembles as you can clearly see.

One graphic that was straight up today was the Dow!  It was the Dow Jones greatest one day increase since March of 2009!  The Fed wants the American taxpayers to back the IMF to help bail out Europe...unbelievable.  The central banks of numerous countries are all considering throwing good money after bad.  At least the markets rose sharply today in response to all of this lunacy!  One just has to wonder where these flim-flam economics are going to land?  Or crash land!?!

Enjoy the end of the week.

Smitty

AA:  Watching some very cold air with some extremely energetic upper level energy aimed at us towards the middle of next week.

Hounds of Winter Howlin' Next Week

If one is to believe both the GFS and the ECMWF, the hounds of winter will be howlin' next week.  Both numerical solutions depict not just one but 2 deep troughs diving SE from Canada.  Along with the trough will come very cold and dry air that will ignite a vigorous round of lake effect snows in the lee of the lakes both on/about Tuesday and then again about Friday.  Here are the 850 mb temps first from the GFS.  The large region of bright lavender indicates temps at a mile up would be close to ~0-5 above F.  Surface temps would be in the 20s to near 30 if this would verify!

The Euro is in close agreement...take a look.  That's as far out as I can run this model, but 12 hours later would have the core of the cold over PA and points northeast.

Then next Friday comes along and another shot of very cold air comes a callin'.  Here is the GFS for next Friday, or about 10 days from now.  That is an expansive area of cold and places on the Tug Hill plateau of upstate NY will get slammed with lake effect if this verifies.  Most of the US will have below normal temps the middle to end of next week as indicated by the map below.

As for the nearer term and more importantly this Saturday evening for the football District 3 AAAA championship game to be contested at Hershey Park Stadium, the weather appears to be quite "fair", albeit a tad chilly!  That is one large elongated high pressure ridging SW to NE over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  The lighter blue suggests surface temps will be in the 30s with the darker blue in central PA closer to the freezing mark.  Winds will be light from the south thanks to the retreating high pressure off to our east.  So wx should not be an issue in deciding the outcome of this game!

$254 million was quietly claimed today by 3 Wall Street moguls who certainly suggest that the "rich keep getting richer"!  At 195,000,000:1 odds against winning the grand prize, I would suggest you continue to dollar cost average into your favorite mutual fund and allow time to compound your savings into a meaningful "prize" that you'll be grateful to have during your "Golden Years".  You actually have better odds of catching lightning in a bottle than hitting the power ball number!  Unlike what these cats do with their clients' moolah, they'll likely take their lump sum of dough and place it in guaranteed securities and depositories!  I doubt if they'll be buying Italian or Greece bonds!

Enjoy your mid-week.

Smitty

AA:  Coldest air will blast over lakes early and then again later next week.  And the "Rich Keep Getting Richer"!