This Is One Tough Pattern

The modeling is everywhere!  Above normal temps followed by a precipitous drop to unheard of  temperature levels.  Run to run model inconsistency.    All of the teleconnections are contradictory with each other. Bottom line; this is one tough pattern so tread lightly...like walking on very thin ice.  By the way, that's how we played hockey growing up at times, had to keep moving over the ice for fear of it breaking under your skate!  Ha!  Couldn't do the 1-tap-2-tap-3-tap face-off thinggy.  Two guys in one spot for any length of time was a bit treacherous!  Global warming you know; soft ice!  Anyway, the one certainty is that temps will reach their coldest levels of the season in the next week or so.  Here is Saturday's temp anomalies across the continent; that's quite cold east of the divide!

But check out the cold forecast for later next week...ouch!

And by next weekend, the Euro has it cold and getting even colder.  Note the reloading to our west and north!

And the latest dynamical model for January is EXTREMELY cold as well...

But I'm sure some of you have heard of our first wintry precip potential late this weekend...well here is the Euro's take on a rather weak system with overrunning precip of mainly snow by early-midday Monday.  Since it is likely our first accumulating snowfall, be very careful out there my friends...especially if it hits in the darkness of early Monday morning.  By the way, come to think of it...it's always dark at this time or year or so it seems!  Sunset; 4:41 pm!

So I'll leave y'all with this appropriate classic!  Enjoy!

Have a good week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Cold and getting colder in the the next 10 days.  An accumulating snow of ~1-3" by Monday.  Next weekend COULD be brutal!  My gut call is a cold January to follow after a brief respite; but this is ONE TOUGH PATTERN!

A Challenging Month Lies Ahead

As I opined about a week ago, the atmospheric engine is undergoing a pattern change...at least I believed so at that point in time.  As we push forward closer to the solstice, I am seeing that occur right be my eyes.  This weekend was markedly different than many of the past days where stratocumulus was difficult to cut, and the air simply felt raw.  Brrr...!  Listen, 44°F in ATL, STL, ORD, and MDT all during midday shows me that a polar air mass is in place.  Possibly, showing the way of what I believe will be THREE arctic shots by the solstice.  Let me explain...Below is a map of the current temps whilst I pound the keys...

The little bit of wintry wx we all should experience by Monday am is simply a wakeup to all who failed to realize that we just entered meteorological winter last Thursday.  The 3 coldest months are Dec-Feb.  With that said, here is the model guidance suggestion of frozen precip in these parts by Monday sunrise...

But the real face slap will occur later in the week when an arctic shot pushes through these parts...the graphic below shows deviations from the norms for Friday pm...quite cold and frankly, stuff we haven't seen since last February...When you see purple on these maps I use...Brrr!

I really can't address snowfall, but I do believe that snow will be an issue to some extent for the next several weeks.  Although I do not see any major nor'easter, both the GFS and the Euro have been hinting at a impactful storm...first the GFS...it usually has a "warmer" solution...total snowfall next 10 days...

And the King Euro...

Both are clearly indicating that we are heading for a much colder time...here is the Euro 5 day mean Wed-Sun...that's a widespread cold map!

So the precip timing is difficult; the type of precip is difficult; the coming cold not so much.  It will be a rude awakening for most!  So I suggest you kick back, have your lamp burning low on your table top, and enjoy this oft listened to tune on my part...

Thanks for reading!

Smitty

AA:  A change to winter for sure!  The cold that's coming is an easy forecast.   Snowfall, well that is a real question mark?