Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
The spring often brings roller coaster wx or see-saw type wx often accompanied by strong gusty winds. These winds of change tend to usher in colder and drier air following a rain or snow event, but then again, sometimes the same winds of change from the SW bring in warmer and slightly more humid air from the mid part of our continent. Yesterday, much to the dismay of many people in the Ohio Valley, these winds of change were devastating and tragic. Reuters confirmed 26 people lost their lives on Friday as a result of the tornadic storms in spite of adequate severe wx warnings from the NWS. Nearly 100 unconfirmed tornadoes were reported on Friday! Springtime volatility is an understatement.
And this type of volatility will be present in our wx this upcoming week. In fact, the GFS is backing off of its bullishness on the warmth and now beginning to trend more towards the Euro where transient deep troughs of cold air will spill through the eastern US. The Euro has an extremely deep trough on our doorstep for next weekend...where were these cold shots in January???
But here is the GFS' depiction for about the same time later this week. And it hints of a trough, but the upper air pattern suggests against it coming guns ablazin' south and east. In fact, that map below would support temps in the low 60s for us here in southern PA!
Now, in the short term, both the Euro and the GFS do agree that Monday will be cold. Here is just the GFS for late Monday-early Tuesday. Again, I ask rhetorically, where were these troughs in January??? That is cold...and what I believe will be the last true cold day of the winter. Yes, we will have subsequent cold wx, but not to this extent...although the Euro disagrees with me!
Next weekend, one of springtime's bane will possibly play a role in our wx. The phenomenon is known as a back door front. A large area of cold air drains down from New England into eastern PA and makes for a rather cold time of things! Here is the classic set-up as depicted by the GFS for late next weekend. The Euro just blasts the cold into us; the GFS "backdoors" eastern PA and down the east slopes of the Appalachians. What earlier looked like a slam dunk of quite mild air ruling the roost now looks to be in question by a couple of differing solutions. Such is the fickle wx of our spring...
But the winds of change (SW) will bring back the warmth to us by early the 2nd week of March....
In any event, just enjoy the moderating temps March has to offer and hopefully the clear skies from time to time over the next couple of weeks. If the skies are indeed clear, get outside in the early evening and look towards the east where Leo the Lion will be rising with bright star Regulus punctuating the backwards question mark. But, more importantly than this zodiac constellation is the Red Planet just to the south of this stellar grouping. Mars is approaching its most favorable position to be viewed, observed, and even photographed by us earthlings. Every 2.1 years, Mars reaches opposition, a position that places it opposite of the sun and thus in the darkest and closest parts of the sky for us to observe.
I clearly remember the Martian opposition of 2003 which led to a widespread Internet hoax where people were led to believe that Mars would appear as large & as bright as the full moon since it was the closest it would be to earth for the last 60,000 years! True enough in terms of its proximity, but 35,000,000 miles will not allow our companion planet to appear that bright or large in the sky! The moon is only 240,000 miles from the earth...or about 150 times closer than Mars during its 2003 opposition! Here is a diagram showing the Martian oppositions over the past decade and towards the next...Wouldn't those exaggerated ellipses make Kepler proud?
So if you get a chance over the next couple of weeks, a couple of hours either side of midnight, look for the storied Red Planet at about 60º altitude above the southern horizon and with any luck you might see this...
Or not...since the pic above was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope!
OK...I've rambled long enough! For those of you who just click on this to see what off the wall comments I might have for the summation...or music video I stumbled upon to match some of the catch phrases used in the dialog above, I remember this classic from The Scorpions entitled the same as what I titled this post. This hit from 1990 is a favorite of mine and serves as hope for the political turmoil in which this world is still entrenched.
Enjoy...and enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Cold...then mild....then cold (but not as cold)....then mild....then cold (but not as cold as the 2nd cold)...then mild...all the while with Winds of Change blowing with vigor over the next couple of weeks. Check out Mars...and if you're real astute, note its retrograde movement ~1 month from now!
This is a heck of a springtime storm system complete with heavy snow to the north and unfortunate severe wx to the south. There are distinct sections within the cyclone based upon varying dewpoint and temperature air which is feeding the natural baroclinicity for the storm's ingestion! The radar shot from below shows the complete system in its full glory!
And here is the current surface analysis in shown in relationship to the barometric pressure indicated by the isobars...the gradient as you can see is 2 mb per isobar...that is currently a 988 mb cyclone in its full glory and intensifying rapidly as it feeds on the temperature and humidity differentials...
I took a screenshot of the NWS watches and warnings as of Friday evening...note the tornado warnings in red and see how they correspond to what the numerical modeling depicted late yesterday as pockets of intense vertical upward velocities...the modeling is vastly improving the last several years!
Now look at the 850s from yesterday...remarkable correlation!
Some places in northern MI are expecting nearly 1.5' of snow if you can believe the GFS! Hey Myers, look at the Wasatch Range.....yahoooooooo! You can also see why they only run the ponies at the spa in August!
As for our wx, I do believe we could see/hear some pea size hail this evening with the passage of some of these potent, gusty storms. In their wake, Saturday will dawn dreary and damp, but a strong WSW wind will scour and mix the atmosphere and sunshine should return by afternoon with drying conditions.
The high temps will be achieved early in the day as a rather cold air mass will be moving in for Sunday and Monday. Monday should be the coldest day for the remainder of this "cold" season!
Saturday's temps are shown below for 2 pm...Note the very cold air just to the north and east of Superior...that is poised to move SE and graze us for the Sunday-Monday time frame. If you believe the Canadian and Euro, we could even see accumulating snow from a clipper that will spin up late Sunday afternoon...I'm not sold on that solution, especially for this winter season!
For those of you who are just a little winter weary....for whatever reason; I mean what winter?!?...Here is a little carrot that I'll dangle, especially for any of you who are anticipating a Saturday celebration of St. Patty's Day 2012! Look at the widespread warmth the GFS anticipates for y'all! Not only will you be wearing green, so will the earth in much of our area!
Alright, enough said for this evening. I hope everyone has an enjoyable week's end!
Smitty
AA: Volatile evening across the eastern US Friday night. Colder for Sunday-Tuesday, then moderating. Temps appear to be running above normal for the next 2 weeks. Here's a new twist, a graphic for the AA...80% likelihood of above normal temps...don't see that too much!
Although it will be a couple of days tardy, March will roar in like a lion with numerous severe wx signatures being evidenced on the numerical modeling for late Friday into early Saturday over the Ohio Valley. This morning I showed you this map...this is a colossal area that is penciled in for a moderate risk of severe wx!
Now here is why...1st the surface map for late Friday. That is a strong surface low over Huron with a powerful cold front stringing down SW towards TX. Look at the temp gradient over the lower Ohio Valley with sub freezing temps over IL and IN with balmy temps over the Piedmont of the Carolinas! A major winter wx event will be occurring while a springlike outbreak of severe wx will be occurring over KT and TN. Welcome to spring!
Here is the 850 mb vorticity or spin to support upward motion. Note the sporadic areas from MO to GA where pockets of convection will be spawned.
Also note the surge of deep moisture at the 10,000 ft level (700 mb). Green supports heavy rain and with the vorticity, this should almost certainly create intense convection. Couple that with strong forcing from the cold air advecting SE and the ingredients for a volatile atmosphere are present.
The 500 mb vort map also shows an elongated area of intense upward motion in the area of the front and thus severe wx is likely Friday pm in the lower Ohio Valley. Much of the same area that was hit Wednesday will once again suffer the wrath of nature thanks to the volatility of spring.
Here are the reports from Wednesday. 16 unconfirmed reports of tornadoes with over 100 damaging wind reports is brutal on top of the 26 confirmed from earlier in the week. Welcome to spring.
And spring is notorious for its roller coaster swings in temperatures here in PA. We will have quite a cold Sunday-Monday period before temps begin to moderate for later next week. Here is the GFS' take on the temps for Tuesday; the last of the cold for the next 2 weeks! Oh, we will fall back to normal, but not before a string of what I feel will be at least 7 days at a minimum of 5 above normal. A few of those days will have temps close to 70 degrees! Enjoy the first spell of true springlike wx!
But look how temps quickly switch to spring time warmth by March 12...which happens to be brother John's birthday! Daffodils will be popping in the days surrounding your birthday bro! Enjoy! And frankly, I don't see any crocus crushers on the horizon! This anomalous warmth just coincidentally coincides with our Daylight Savings Time weekend where we will spring forward one hour on March 11! Can you believe we are at that time of year already? Wow!
Note the anomolous heights as per the GFS and the Euro for the 8-10 day period. The Euro is hinting that this warmth is transient; the GFS insists that it is here to stay. Note that AK is once again bearing the brunt of the arctic cold! When it is cold in the 49th state, it is often quite warm in the eastern US! Time will tell...
I've been running silent for a couple of weeks just trying to catch my breath from a hectic winter sports season and quite simply......relaxing. The wx cooperated as there was really no need to opine about any impending winter wx...winter?...did someone say winter?? So I just wanted to give a rather in depth overview of what I believe should be an early arrival of springtime warmth once this last pool of cold departs by the middle of next week. As for running silently, those 2 words lead me to this 1985 hit from Mike and the Mechanics...enjoy this 80s classic!
And enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Volatile wx in the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. That system will sweep a cold front through PA later Saturday making for a cold Sunday-Tuesday period. Then spring will spring!
Just a very quick post here to verify what everyone already knows...this winter was an epic fail! Just 7 inches of snow; no real true arctic outbreaks, one school delay....ONE...we better start addressing this global warming thing! Note the slight upward trend in temps...and also note that last week, we did not achieve 60ºF! Yes...the glories of an ever increasing sun angle.
And speaking of that increasing sun angle...and along with that angle, increasing radiation (heat) creates more volatility in the atmosphere. Thus I show you what is a rather large area of moderate and slight risk for severe wx this upcoming weekend! I can't remember a 2 day outlook that is this potentially ugly! Thunderstorms might even be observed this Saturday noon time around here! Unreal!
Then comes the cold air once again for the weekend. here is the deviation from normal as per the GFS for Sunday.
But by Thursday, we are looking at springlike temps once again...
And so it goes with the roller coaster of spring time...Enjoy your Thursday!
Smitty
AA: Mild Saturday with thunder?, then cold for 2 days, then warm again! Happy spring!
