July

As we begin our warmest month of the summer, I always like to look ahead and try to see what the modeling is suggesting for the upcoming month.  But before I do that, let's look at the month behind us.  As most of you know, we just completed a glorious stretch of weather earlier this past week.  In fact, it was actually very much below seasonal norms in the upper mid-west and northern plains, but here in our area and the mid-Atlantic in general, although cool, the heat returned triumphantly.  There was essentially a mini-heat wave centered in PA...here are the last 2 days...note the cold in Manitoba!

And the last 2 weeks...note the heat in the famous megalopolis from DC to Boston...

And if you're unsure of a megalopolis, here's a graphic of population density for the I-95 corridor; the darker the shade of brown, the greater the population density.  The darkest shading indicates regions in excess of 7,500 people per square mile!

Sorry I digress...you know, my ADD just kicked in!  Now, how about the last month in terms of temps?  Look at how the heat held serve around the Chesapeake Bay much to my wife's dismay as we sit at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a pool of sweat watching the Orioles tank during this past month!  Ouch...like my lovely wife says, baseball is about the pitching and the Os have had little quality pitching this past month!  Now yet another digression; baseball flavored this time...sorry.  Here's the map of the past 30 days...

So what might July hold in store for us in terms of temps?  First, the Euro's take on the next 5 days at the 500 mb level.  A net flow in these parts from the west and southwest with slightly above normal heights.  That would indicate temps at or above climatological norms with relatively high humidity...

And for this upcoming weekend after the July 4 celebrations...a weakness in the upper air over the eastern portion of the continent could pave the way for slightly cooler than normal temps and seasonal humidity levels.  The pattern below also spells heat will once again invade SW deserts and the 4 Corners region of the US...

Here is a snapshot of the Euro's next 10 days in exact numbers of highs and lows; next weekend it appears a new refreshing shot of cooler and drier air may invade from O'Canada on a strong upper air NW flow before yet another surge of heat humidity invades for the middle of the month...

And July as a whole...slightly cool in the eastern half of the CONUS; warm western half.  Do note that consistent tongue of warmth over the Chesapeake Bay region...which to me indicates strong down-sloping and therefore warming with WNW flow off the Appalachians...

OK...enough..  July is summertime and with it is heat and humidity.  So enjoy the summer season and enjoy this hit from the 70s...

Smitty

AA:  June was basically normal in terms of temps in spite of the hot spells and strong cool downs...July looks to be similar with no real prolonged periods of heat and humidity; just a alternating mix of cooler times and warmer/hotter times...and, oh by the way, we live on the northwest fringe of a very densely populated region of the US...but you already knew that having to drive I-81 all the time!  Looking forward to ASG at Bluebird!