Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Don't look now, but the global modeling is coming into better consensus that during the late Tuesday to early Thursday time period, KMDT will be experiencing your typical cold season nor'easter. Unfortunately, the ravaged coastline thanks to Hurricane Sandy will also be experiencing rather severe wx conditions that would make any mid-latitude cyclone proud! 2-3' tidal flooding above the norm coupled with onshore winds of 35-50 mph spells true disaster for an already pummeled eastern seaboard with no buffer from the ocean's hostility as the beaches, berms and dunes have largely been eroded. This situation should not be taken lightly...let's hope that power is restored to many of the homes and businesses prior to the development of this upcoming wx event. Here is the Euro's evolution of the storm from Tuesday to Thursday...
TUESDAY EVENING
WEDNESDAY EVENING
THURSDAY EVENING
The map above is actually a rather interesting depiction of what shows a cold conveyor forming and central PA receiving some rather appreciable deformation zone snows...but it is waaay to early to forecast that. Just saying, this could be a sizable snow for many parts of central and northern PA north and eastward up through interior New England. To be sure the White Mountains of NH will be WHITE and the Green Mountains of VT...well...not so much GREEN, but WHITE as well...
Once the storm passes, a vigorous NW flow will usher in cold air into our part of the country. Look at the temp anomalies for the next 7 days...note the deeper blue in New England; evidence of an early season deep snow pack!
And snow is beginning to show in the northern hemisphere as seen by this north polar view of planet earth...
OK...so there is a brief synopsis...very brief...of the upcoming potential nor'easter that, if it develops as per the Euro, will wreak havoc over the battered coast and bring further hardships and heartache to an already fragile populous. Once these forecasts reach greater consensus of the impending storm, a sense of urgency should and must prevail in terms of restoring power for these areas. Otherwise, this storm will greatly compound the brokenheartedness already being experienced by a large segment of the greater NYC and NJ population. Let's not forget that this storm will also impact New England as well, a region that also had severe effects from Sandy, just not to the extremes as experienced further south closer to the land falling monster! Personally, as most of you know, I love a good storm! But this is too much of a good thing....waaaay too much. I wouldn't wish these weather woes on my worst enemies!
There was a fund raising relief effort shown on TV last evening my wife shared with me. She mentioned the performance of a few of her favorite musical artists and I will share this with y'all!
Now its off to handicap the Breeders Cup races for 2012 being held at beautiful Santa Anita where the forecast is for sunny skies and 80F for later today! A perfect day for taking in the "Sport of Kings" and enjoying the 2012 Horse Racing Championships!
Enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Watching for a potentially devastating nor'easter to hammer the already beaten and battered east coast with heavy surf, wind, and rain. Possibly/probably our 1st accumulating snow for the winter season of 2012-13! But as of now, I believe the bulk of the precip that falls at KMDT will be rain.
I have just a bit of time to simply put y'all on alert that all of the global modeling with the exception of the GFS suggests another slow moving cyclone will move up along the mid-Atlantic coast in the next Tuesday to Thursday time frame. The GFS also has a storm, but it is slightly further out to sea...This storm will be much more of a typical nor'easter, but any exceptional wind and waves along with the cold will be unwelcome wx guests along the battered coastlines of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast. I have not had much time to look into this, but snow is a real possibility even in the KMDT area, but as is so often the case, the exact path and strengthening of the storm will determine our precip type. This time of year suggests a cold rain; however, there is plenty of cold air available for an early season snow! Here is the Euro from overnight....Wow!
And the 500 mb height anomalies for next Wednesday...that is a deep and strengthening negatively tilted trough with a nice block to the northeast!
I will try to get something out tomorrow; more likely Sunday! This is Breeders Cup Weekend 2012!
Enjoy the week's end!
Smitty
AA: Watching a more typical nor'easter for the next Tuesday-Thursday time period.
I just wanted to show you what a dying superstorm looks like at various levels of the atmosphere. I apologize from the get-go since I downloaded these pics early this morning; however, I am now just to getting to place it into a reader friendly forum from yours truly. Again, our effects here in central PA were less severe than along the coast, and indeed, that is how it should be since tropical systems are more about surge and less about rain and wind. Inland, we had our share of both rain and gusty winds. However, the rain was manageable for the most part (although we received just over 5" for the storm total in about 48 hrs) and the wind's ferocity was mitigated by the fact that the "dead-wood" was already pruned from last year's heavy wet Halloween snow and the gusty winds that quickly blew through with Hurricane Irene.
With that said, here was the surface map for early this Wednesday morning. Note the spiraling "troughs" pinwheeling around the center of low pressure located over Lake Erie. These little vortices increase upward motion and promote a bit more enhanced precip if other favorable dynamics are present.
Now lets venture up to 850 mb or about 1 mile above the surface...it was chilly here in PA today and the map below shows why. The temps aloft were quite cold! Frankly, the temps were capable of supporting snowfall in most of PA! Also note the large cold conveyor on the west side of the low straight down from Hudson Bay!
It's also been quite cloudy...7 days in a row where KMDT reported 100% cloud cover! Wow! Look at the humidity 2 miles up at the 700 mb level....quite saturated!
At the 500 mb level, or about the point where half of the air is above that and the other half below (3.5 miles or so...), there is still quite a bit of spin or vorticity right over PA which helps promote rainfall, albeit light or at the very least enough upward motion to create widespread cloud cover...
Finally, the 250 mb level, or the level of the jet stream for our latitude. Note how far south of PA the jet stream is positioned thus allowing for the cold air to move southward over the continent! Also note the ridge or poleward bulge out over the western US and the equatorward dip here in the east. A general rule of thumb is when it is warm in the west, it is cold in the east and vice-versa...
Since we went up to about 30,000', lets take a look at what a dying superstorm look like from a geosynchronous orbiting satellite (~23,000 miles) using its infrared eye...
I've had several people ask why do these storms form? Well...that is a loaded question! But to keep things quite simple and ultimately the most concrete basis of fact, cyclones develop to move hot, humid air poleward and dry, cold air equatorward. These mid-latitude cyclones develop a large circulation that helps accomplish this feat. Look at this morning's temperature map...55F in Caribou Maine while it was 39F in Tallahassee, Florida. I believe the gyre did its job!
And to show you just how much "topsy-turvy" this system made the wx, look at the snow...FOR OCTOBER...over the Appalachian Mountains...incredible! Snow was reported in the highest elevations of GA!
Here are some 2 day totals reported from the state of West "by God smile when you say it" Virginia!
Don't want to add insult to injury, but look at what the GFS has up its sleeve for next week at this time....but that is a different story for a different day!
OK...that is all. I hope I didn't bore y'all too much. I did have many nice comments from several of you over the last couple of days...and that I do appreciate. So I will leave you with a song from a favorite band from a former life that has numerous wx references and other political references, etc...as well as for my favorite D-Line coach! When i was younger, I appreciated the "instrumental" portions...now I think about the simple poetry in the lyrics. Enjoy....
And enjoy the wx this weekend when skies finally clear and temps moderate to possibly a few degrees above normal for Sunday.....maybe!
Have a good end of the week...
Smitty
AA: Still looking back at Superstorm Sandy! Also, flashing back to some real Rock 'n' Roll from days gone by!
Hurricane Sandy WILL BE the 77th named storm to be retired and rightly so. As I sit here and type this, 150-200 miles to my east is an area completely ravaged by what nature can do in simply a few hours. I've always been fascinated by man's futile attempt to control the weather, although some minimal accomplishments can be claimed in wx modification exercises such as fog dissapation and snowfall enhance, both while "seeding" already precipitable clouds! Years ago when I saw man trying to burn fires on the oceans to try to disrupt hurricanes was analogous to extinguish a raging forest fire with ONE bucket of water. Yesterday, the coastline from the Delmarva up through southern New England experienced just what an angry ocean can AND WILL do when coming onto the land. Although it is not yet daylight in NYC, Long Island, and the NJ coast, once the sun rises, the devastation will be duly noted. And I might add, quickly forgotten by most...unfortunately. The fact that many lives were not lost is simply due to the fact the ample warning was issued to vacate harms way. If the advice was not heeded, well, I hate to sound so cold, but it's nobody's fault but their own...(I'd usually put in a Led Zep video here...). Sorry I digress....but I did pull it up and listen to it. I saw many pictures from last evening when lower Manhattan recorded its highest surge of 13.88'; smashing the previous height of the water by over 2'! Wow! Flooded streets were common up to Canal Street.
Here is the water gushing into the WTC site...
I will suggest to y'all that you peruse electronic media, magazines, newspapers, etc...for all of the data on this truly historic storm! That is not the purpose here; however, I will say this. Hurricane Sandy most definitely will re-write this wx history books. The Great Hurricane of 1893 actually removed and forever changed the south coast of Long Island. Hog Island was literally washed away. Gone! Poof! This hurricane made landfall on August 23, 1893 and did so at what is now the location of JFK Airport. A direct slam into NYC! Again, lower Manhattan was flooded up to Canal Street. It is believed that because the flooding occurred during low tide, the situation was not worse. Hog Island itself WAS about a mile long of the coast of the Rockaways.
The Long Island Express (Hurricane of 1938) was a Cat 5 in the open ocean and made landfall out on the eastern part of LI as a Cat 3. Manhattan flooded again, shorelines were rearranged...but a storm talked about by the old-timers still to this day! As will Sandy!
Last night, I recorded the lowest pressure ever at my home at 28.18" of Hg or 961 mb! Look at what the barograph did in Walker Bldg; the home of the PSU wx station. That drop of pressure is simply incredible...
So where is Sandy now? Here is the latest surface map...as of 5 am Tuesday...
And a close-up of the NE...note Reading and Lancaster and KMDT are missing...I'm guessing a power issue? However, Sandy will move the WNW today and allow for some rather chilly air to be drawn down towards us. Today will not be a nice day as temps will remain in the 40s with still some rather gusty winds, but the worst is by far past us as this monstrous cyclone fills.
Here is the initialization (NAM) of Sandy's locale early this morning....note how the cold air has now completely wrapped around what was the "warm core" of tropical Sandy...the lower left panel shows wind, the top right left panel shows surface pressures and temps one mile up....the right 2 are for precip....
And Sandy will move slowly WNW for its location later tonight...
This storm had a SIX standard deviation from "normal" as viewed from the 500 mb level? What does that look like? Well, here you go...deep trough over the eastern US and a huge "block" over the N Atlantic! A perfect meteorological set-up for a storm of this magnitude....
Note how far south the jet stream is! Unreal for this time of year!
OK...that is all for now. Yes people, you lived through history! Over-hyped? I DON'T THINK SO! Talk with anyone who has coastal interests from the Delmarva north to southern NE. My thoughts and prayers are with those who have suffered heartache due to this awesome display of nature. But hopefully this did not result in any bodily injury; merely loss of property. Again, ample warning was given...get out! Although this might appear callus, all indications were that this storm meant business. And once daylight dawns, we will truly see the magnitude of the destruction Sandy dealt to the coastal communities to our east. I'll leave y'all with this...
I hope all is well as can be with everyone reading this.....!
Smitty
AA: One for the record books! I hope you didn't lose power...or if you did, you get it back quickly...
