Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Much like PSU will once again eventually roar similar to their prime time years of the 80s and early 90s! Although this upcoming 7-10 days of wx might be more fierce than the salt and pepper D line of Bruce Clark and Matt Millen or the bone crunching hits from LB Shane Conlin and safety Ray Isom, these teams were hard hitting just like this upcoming front 10 days of March will be. For those of you old enough to remember those teams...well...here's a flashback from the Tuscaloosa Times.
Now I had to laugh when I saw this info graphic from the Duluth NWS this afternoon...it kinda looks like that one piece of ice is saluting the Arctic! The other thought I had was...No $#!t...
Well, it is no surprise that this winter has been cold. Look at the temps over the winter month across the CONUS for the months of Dec, Jan, and Feb to date! Quite a cold winter in MOST of the US to be sure! (-1.5ºC and falling with 2 more days to be calculated into this graphic!)
And the next 5 days will be more of the same!
In fact, as I pound the keys at this time, some squalls are being ushered in with gusty NW winds straight from the land of Nunavut! The very short range model saw these squalls and depicted them nearly as they are now presently occurring!
In fact, even the global modeling (GFS) is suggesting a potential for record cold not only tomorrow am...(Gray area is sub-zero)
It is also hinting at record cold again later next week as well! The record tomorrow morning will be tough as the record stands from 1934 of -1ºF. The Global Warming agenda driven governmental agency (aka NOAA) will do everything in its power to protect that record low tomorrow morning at KMDT! But the map below is also suggesting that another refreshed deep snow pack will enable record lows to be achieved as the records are much more attainable as they are basically in the mid single digits!
By the way, all of next week will be cold if the GFS is correct. Again, you can see the model sniffing out the snow pack that is likely to be in place over most of the state and into the New England states! Doesn't it look nice for spring training games next week down in the sunshine state?
But cold is one thing, but I know why y'all clicked on this...how much...how much? Of course, it is too far away to say with complete certainty, but it sure looks like this will be a MAJOR DISRUPTIVE storm for many locations across the OH Valley into the the northeast. The axis of heaviest snow has been consistently placed right across the KMDT area over the last several days (multiple model runs) which leads to a relatively higher than normal confidence forecast at this time frame. Here's the GFS ending Tuesday morning...
The Euro is even more generous with its output of winter's white!
Please keep in mind that these graphics are derived by calculating a 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid. The potential exists that the ratios will be higher than that, meaning an inch of rain would accumulate to ~14-16" of snow assuming the true arctic air holds it ground. Bottom line; National Military Day will undoubtedly greet PA with an arctic boundary fighting fiercely against an overrunning warmer and more humid regime creating quite the winter weather ruckus in these parts! (National Military Day?...March 4th).
OK...gotta go. I'll leave y'all with a rather catchy tune from Dire Straits entitled...of course...Lions! Enjoy!
I'll try to update over the weekend at some point...but most importantly; enjoy your Friday and even more so your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder Friday! Slight moderation until winter roars back next week. Record low temps on a couple of occasions? MAJOR winter storm early next week. Big time draft next Sunday evening! (with another nor'easter?...the potential exists!...different story for a different day...)
Very quick update for y'all...there is agreement with the 2 primary global models for the weekend situation for snow and a tad of ice in these parts early next week! First the GFS...
Now here is the Euro...
And just for all of you spring coaches...March will come in like a lion and act "lionish" all month. Take a look at the CFS v2 for the month of March in terms of temps. This map was derived by an average of the numerical model's run over the last 10 days! In other words, it looks very likely that March will be yet another below normal month in terms of temps!
OK...gotta go walk the salt mines AKA the parking lots of CDHS! Have an enjoyable Wednesday!
Smitty
AA: Looking at a cold month of March starting with a major winter event March 2-3! I will draft all offense once again! My offensive categories by September might just be that...offensive!
Those of us who remember the classic football calls of Keith Jackson, well, that was my same exclamation when I saw the global models today. No, I did not have Silver Finder in any combo...nor did I have him on top! But one has got to love the deep closers! (Tom Durkin must like them)... Just like the modeling today...Whoa Nellie!
It will take some time, but the modeling will be honing in on a solution of a rather stormy time in these parts the next couple of weeks. We are certainly in a period of storms and more importantly, rumors of storms, but I feel quite strongly that this March will certainly be a memorable one in these parts before the winter of 2013-14 gives up her stranglehold on the eastern half of the USA! Although it's most recent run is not as bullish, here is the GFS' take on the snow potential by next Monday! Whoa Nellie!
And the most recent Euro is essentially the same...The Euro is finding the natural baroclinicity between the deep arctic air over Ontario and the strong SE ridge trying unsuccessfully to poke her heat to the north and west. As a result...well...Whoa Nellie!
And the 850 temps suggest that this should be the case as depicted by the Euro...deep arctic air over the upper plains, mid-west, and southern O Canada whilst the SE ridge TRIES to poke NW. Just ain't happenin'...as a result...Whoa Nellie!
The 850 mb level winds show a wave of low pressure developing over the TN Valley and moving ENE south of PA delivering a potent dose of QPF to these parts on/about Monday mostly in the form of frozen (snow) as the SE ridge tries to push the storm further north. Thus, the max precip should be right over our region with the temps supporting snow. Whoa Nellie!
And by the way, winter will still hold a couple of aces up her sleeve as the the 15 day 500 mb looks, well, just U-G-L-Y if you want spring to spring! That is one deep trough! Are you getting the picture....Whoa Nellie!
OK...well I've bored y'all enough...and possibly depressed some of you as well. Didn't mean to, but the pattern is what it is; Cold with the potential for springtime storms. You do the math! March can be beautiful in these parts; often it breaks hearts for those wanting spring north of the Mason-Dixon Line! Look for copious crocus crushers and possibly tulip tumblers...you get my drift?
So this actually took some time to put together because I was looking for a "Whoa Nellie" call from Keith Jackson and I really couldn't find just one...so...I actually watched interviews with Bo Schembechler, Woody Hayes, Bear Bryant, and Joe Paterno with KJ asking the questions...what a flashback! Anyway...here's another flashback for those of you who like some good R n R from the late 70s!
Enjoy your mid-week...
Smitty
AA: Cold...and getting colder before it gets warmer. Storms and rumors of such! Monday looks likely for snow from this seat! Still getting ready for March 9!
