Weekend Tropical Troubles?

It's been awhile since I last opined as the weather has been essentially very benign so far this summer season.  Sure, we had an impressive heat wave and an evening of rare EF2 tornadoes rumbling through Dauphin County, but overall this summer to date has been quite uneventful...and that's a good thing.  The rainfall until recently has been generous over most of our area.  As is typical with the nature of convection in the summer, rainfall a bit too generous in some spots while less so in others.  Take a look at precip for the last 30 days.  You can clearly see the thunderstorms that pushed through the middle part of Dauphin County.

It's ironic that here in central PA those tornadoes materialized as nationwide it's been our least tornadic season in the last decade!  The dark black line is the total of confirmed tornadoes across the states for this entire year.  The dotted black line indicates the decadal average of 2005-2015 with the total number just over 1,000.   Take a look...

But this post is to give a brief "heads-up" as to the POTENTIAL of some rather troublesome weather late next weekend into early the following week.  The Euro has been fairly consistent with spinning up a coastal developing storm in that time frame.  Here are the ensembles probabilities of a tropical storm late next weekend along the east coast; these probabilities from this time are relatively high.

And here is the control run for next Sunday morning...a low right over the Chesapeake...

And the total precip along the east coast over the next 10 days with most of this occurring from Friday on...

You can clearly see the track of the coastal system which may have warm core tropical characteristics...FYI...the GFS has not been as consistent with this development, but on some of the runs, it creates a similar situation synoptically.  Time will tell...

OK...gotta roll, but I'll play this one for you as I have before.  It just might be appropriate for next weekend?  Enjoy...and enjoy the cold frontal passage Tuesday which will once again usher in much cooler and drier O Canadian air for midweek!

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Watching for a tropical type system to possibly develop this weekend into early next week.  Otherwise, numerous showers and thunderstorms around Tuesday as a cold front pushes through bringing refreshing air into our region Wednesday-Thursday...and even Friday before the muggies return!