Winter To Hold and Be Bold

It was remarkable this morning how close we came to yet another plowable snowfall here in southern PA.  In fact, even here at my humble abode, a half inch of winter reminder greeted us upon awakening.  But just a short drive down I-83, a nuisance snowfall quickly evolved into a disruptive winter event.  Take a look at this map...a moderate to heavy snow for the greater Baltimore-Washington area!  BWI clocked in at 7.9" officially; Reagan at 8.0" at last measure.  Currently, the temp has yet to achieve the freezing mark today at DCA where normally 60ºF is often reached at this time of year!

And please don't shoot the messenger, but winter is far from over!  Not by a long-shot!  After a brief "warm-up" later this week...enjoy Thursday, Friday, & Saturday...it looks as if not just one, but two arctic air masses have their sights set on the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next couple of weeks.  Here are the warmest temps I could find over the next 10 days as per the Euro...

But by early next week, an anomalously cold air mass will be invading the US from our neighbors to the north...the map below in in degrees C...so basically you can double the scale to get to degrees F...it looks to be about -20ºF from norms!  Map is progged for Sunday afternoon/evening.

Then a reinforcing shot of genuinely gelid air (-20ºC at 850 mb would make January proud!) will be making inroads for the end of next week.

Just to make things a tad interesting, a strengthening Manitoba Mauler could lay down a carpet of white for the diving arctic air to reinforce what comes through on Monday!  Note the 1030 mb high pressure back over the northern plains.

So today is cold...look at the forecast departures from normal max temps.  Trust me...the actuals are even colder than the forecast temps due to the extensive snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic states!

And next week will be even colder than this week!  Unreal.  This is a FIVE DAY mean for next week, again in degrees C!  If this verifies, it would be comparable to a "normal" week in the middle of January!

And what is very interesting are the super ensembles and the analogs of a couple of monster spring blizzards...just sayin'!  Most of you will remember the 2nd listed analog date...the "Superstorm Blizzard of 1993"!  I'm not thinking most of you remember the April blizzard in 1982...the 6th analog!  Could be interesting...

Here are the maps from April 1982 event!  A classic digging and strengthening 500 mb trough bore an April storm for the books!

OK...I've been wordy enough.  It simply looks like although the sun will gain positive declination on the celestial sphere as of 1657 Z Time Thursday March 20, the atmosphere in these parts will be slow to recognize the Vernal Equinox. But I doubt if many of you will be slow to recognize this ditty made famous from the movie The Departed...an appropriate tune for today's celebrations for those of you who plan to do so.  Also appropriate as our wx will be more like that of New England's over the next couple of weeks.

 Smitty

AA:  March has been cold, will briefly thaw this week, but then the cold to reload for the last week of the month and possibly beyond...not yet done with snow either....