O Canada; Oh My!

As I continue to monitor the situation with blowhard Harvey, I am also keeping one eye on soon to be Irma...at least I believe so.  And although the Euro and the GFS keep Irma out to sea, the Canadian global numerical model has a rather concerning solution...especially in its previous run...take a look...

The above scenario would be a bit disconcerting for us here in the mid-Atlantic.  With that said, the trend of the model is now to keep it further away...and that is good news!  Take a look; first off the Outer Banks and the VA capes...

And then 6 hours later pulling away with the Gulf Stream...here's hoping.  Bottom line; must keep our watch for soon to be Irma...

So you know my deal...gotta leave y'all with a good tune.  The top most graphic would be an affirmation for the song sung below...Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  The Canadian is a fairly reliable model and this has me a tad concerned for the middle of next week.  Just get your mowing done!

Harvey to Hammer Houston

It's no secret now that Hurricane Harvey has it eye set on the central Texas coast and that as it slowly approaches landfall, it will eventually stall over SE TX before pulling back to sea and sending its moisture eventually our way.  It has been TWELVE years since a Major hurricane has made landfall in the US; Wilma was the last in the epic year of tropical troubles in 2005.  A major hurricane is one that is Saffir Simpson Scale 3, 4 or 5.   Take a look at the Saffir Simpson Scale for Hurricanes...

Hurricanes are a lot of wind, but more importantly they are a ton of rain and water!  With the slow movement progged for this storm, some very heavy rainfall totals, record breaking in some areas, are likely with this storm.  Here is a close-up of the rainfall totals from the go-to global Euro model...the regional models have even higher totals!  Coastal flooding will also be severe as the storm slowly grinds unto the coast and water piles on the NE side of the storm with surges of ~10' or so...wow!

Just off the coast of Galveston Bay (in the graphic above) has nearly 3' of rainfall!  It's not out of the question for some areas to actually record 3' of rain with this devastating event.  And as I mentioned earlier, the remnants will eventually track up towards PA, possibly giving us a rather wet time of it for the 1st part of the Labor Day weekend...use the graphic below to track the moisture...I personally believe the track of the heaviest rains will somewhat follow a bit further SE and up the Ohio River valley...also note the the heavy rains over South Florida and just off the SE coast.  It looks like a near miss with what I believe will be Irma by Friday am...

Here is a graphic showing the Thursday pm positions of both Harvey and soon to be Irma?

And the current watches and warnings in these troubled tropical lands...note the frost advisory for the UP of Michigan.  That cool crisp O Canadian air will control our wx for the next several days...so enjoy!

I'll leave y'all with this 8.5 minute gem; truly a bluesy time will be unfortunately had for these resilient folks of Texas...

Let's all hope this storm is not as bad as what sure looks like will occur...and let's keep that Irma? system from developing too close to the coast of the SE USA.  Enjoy your pre-start-of-school 3 day week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Really hoping the people in TX heed the warnings; Harvey (how appropriate, a real blowhard!) looks ugly from my seat;  FL and the Carolinas to be spared this time I do believe, but just by a hair on my chinny chin chin...and you know I've gots lots of those!  Catch up on your mowing!

Tropics to Make Some News

It was excellent to see all of my colleagues today back in the saddle in the CDSD and with that, it got me to tickle these keys again as well.  This post will not be about the eclipse; it was awesome to be sure, but the fact that over the next 5-7 days, a couple of tropical systems are going to create real headaches for coastal Texas and coastal Florida and the coastal Carolinas.  Let me explain...and I will be brief.  Here are the projected rainfall totals across eastern Texas as modeled by the Euro...

And a close-up of those epic rainfall totals centered on Houston and Galveston Bay...

TS Harvey...which should ramp up into a Cat 1 or even Cat 2 storm by Saturday will pound those coastal TX communities for a good 2 days or so...well...maybe not so good!  As for the Florida situation, soon to be Irma will slowly ride north along the east coast of FL.  Here, the Euro keeps the heaviest rains over the Bahama mamas, but personally, I believe some very heavy rains will manifest themselves from Miami to the Space Coast...just sayin'...then the Carolina coasts must be made aware...

OK...enough to let y'all know that tropical troubles are a brewin'.  And in honor of Glen Campbell, who passed earlier this month, and since I mentioned this geographical location above, I'll leave y'all with this...Enjoy!  And enjoy this glorious end of summer, low dew point weather for our area!

Smitty

AA:  Just a post about some tropical systems that I'm not hearing too much about, but I believe we will after the weekend!  Good grass cutting weather the next entire week!  Enjoy!