Disruptive Event to Hit Northeast

This WILL be a major event and disruptive across all of the northeastern quadrant of the US.  I am only showing 4 maps at this time; all from the Euro modeling as this has been rock solid over the last several runs.  Whenever a closed low at the 500 mb level swings to the south of PA in the winter months, the snow forecast can be very tricky!  The exact track of that upper low will be key.   Here is the most recent output by the Euro for snowfall accumulations by the end of the storm which should occur for us around KMDT sometime Wed. midday...

The most intense precip will likely fall in the form of rain as the nor'easter strengthens off the Delmarva Tuesday afternoon...

The rain/snow line is plainly evident here with the 850 mb temps progged for the same time as the map above; Tuesday afternoon...you can see some dynamic cooling around Philly...the grayish color would be snowfall...

Here is the location of the 500 mb closed low 6 hours later for Tuesday evening...if that closed low would bundle over northern VA and not sheer with a center over SE PA, we'd be looking at a greater snowfall.  As it is now, a general 3-6" event looks to be in the cards by when all is said and done. 

I do believe this storm will surprise many folks as the GFS has the surface low further east and not nearly as phased.  However, keep in mind that the GFS did not have any storm as little as 1.5 days ago!  Just sayin'...

OK...go enjoy the Eagles-Seahawks game...heading off to family night...

Smitty

AA:  Clear and cold tonight.  Clouds increase for sloppy wintry storm Tuesday into Wednesday.  Too tricky to call accumulations yet...but looks like a 3-6" potential...