No Arctic Air For You

What a complete and thorough dominating performance last evening by the Philly Catholic League entry into the AAA state finals in football.  In what amounted to an assiduous dismantling of the Bishop McDevitt Crusaders, the Vikings were clearly the superior team.  This assemblage of young football players are most likely the best in the state of PA!  Their speed from what I've observed is second to none.  Precise execution with an air of confidence exudes from this football team.  PA high school football most certainly has some talented individuals and many knowledgeable staffs that meld these young players into good teams.  In fact as rumor had it, one Urban Meyer was an eye witness to the thrashing that was unleashed last evening at the "Concrete Palace".  With Penn State football in sudden disarray and turmoil, already unable and unwilling to recruit the best from PA, it's only a matter of a few short seasons until The Ohio State University will dominate Big Ten football play as coach Meyer already knows where to seek outstanding talent that can play in the "cold" climates of the geographical locales of Big Ten country.  Congrats to both AAA finalists; but well deserved kudos and most sincere accolades for a conquering performance from the Archbishop Wood Vikings in their quest for their AAA football title.  This team is most likely the best in the state of PA!

As for the weather, there is NO ARCTIC AIR in sight that will be affecting PA by the end of the December.  Oh, we will still have bouts of cold, but no true Arctic origin air will invade PA for the foreseeable future.  Pesky shots of marginally cold air will attack PA, but our "mild" December will last well into January.  The map below shows the main trough will be in the east allowing for a small opportunity for snow to fall on/about Christmas, but with pacific air as the source region, the odds of us seeing any true snowstorms by next Sunday are minimal at best!

As long as there is cold over Greenland, any shot of "cold' and I use that term loosely, will be transient in nature.  That trough will pass and above normal temps will once again envelope the nation east of the Mississippi.  This +NAO and +AO does not bode well for lovers of winter wx!  Look at that 7 day running mean anomaly map for North America.  This will give the global warming people something to shout about!  This map is for the 7 day period ending this upcoming Wednesday.

And then the next week's period!  Uuugh!  20+ºF above for a large chunk of O Canada from the ensembles from 2 weeks out!  That's unheard of....well not really, but its waaaay above normal.  i guess the Calgary Flames will be the Calgary Flames this end of December!

This might not be a scene being played out on the ponds of Alberta with this type of winter weather being experienced at present.

As far as the numerical modeling can project, we are looking at a "not-so-hard-to-take" period of winter weather as the 384 hour anomalies are "mild" as well!  Again, the source region of air is the Pacific and not the Arctic.  Yes, a mean trough in the east, but with Pacific air spells temps in the 40s here for daytime maxes in the sub tropics of southern PA!  The ice might get a tad soft at the NHL  Winter Classic this year in Philly!  Oh well....

Here are the Super Ensembles and their comparisons to past synoptic set ups.  This is centered on Christmas Day.  Certainly, a trough exists in the eastern part of North America. 

But then I placed those December and January years into the data base and kicked out the following temps for the US.  The output from the data set doesn't look too cold now...does it?  I guess that makes me happy with propane at $2.19 delivered!

Let's hope the CD Rams play this "hot" tonight!  Good luck Central Dauphin in your quest to earn the AAAA PIAA football title for 2011!

Enjoy the week's end!

Smitty

AA:  No arctic air in sight!  Archbishop Wood is a solid high school football team, maybe the best the state of PA and many states in the country!  Go Rams!

Where's Winter?

For lovers of winter weather, it doesn't really look too good for us living here in the sub-tropics of North America!  We've been spoiled the last couple of years in terms of cold.  As for snow, we had a few promising storms, but our snowfall was overwhelmed by the Arctic cold and dryness.  But this year to this point is a different story.  If you think it's been mild; well you're correct!  Take a look at the graphic below.  There has been only 3 DAYS BELOW NORMAL in December to this point; 3 DAYS!  That saves on heating costs and drives down the natural gas prices, especially painful if you are invested in such commodities!  Only December 12 was "cold" (-5ºF below normal) this month and that was thanks to a cold morning low of 19ºF!  The afternoon temp responded to 40ºF with bright sun...not too hard to take!  Take a look...

Although snowfall and snow cover is "normal" to this point, it just seem like winter has not made much of an appearance here east of the Mississippi.  The graphic below shows the "normal" snow cover for the northern hemisphere to this point compared to the last 10 years.  In November, we were way ahead of what promised to be an early onset of winter.  That did not pan out too well!  Usually snow cover breeds cold and more snow...kinda like winning breeds winning...well sorta....

But here is our below normal snow cover to this point...

Compare that to last year at this time...a bit more expansive across the lakes and northeast!

And if you are waiting for anything the next week, well I'm not too sold on any storm delivering the goods for Christmas, although there is a potential for a storm on/around Christmas Day.  Here is the maximum snow cover I could find from the GFS over the next 8 days.  The map below is for next Friday.  Clearly the GFS sees a storm cutting to our west taking aim for a snow event through the plains and into the western lakes.  It appears as if Chi-Town will be experiencing a White Christmas.  In the east, you best venture to northern new England to experience any bona fide snow and that is not even a sure thing!

And to make matters worse, the teleconnections of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations are forecast to stay positive for the foreseeable future.  Remember, a negative AO and NAO helps hold the cold in the east and promotes east coast snow storms or at the very least, creates conditions conducive to such weather events!  Here is the "mild" looking NAO through the new year.  Positive and trending even more so...ouch!

The AO is no better for snow lovers...

So there is the quick take what appears to be a "Green Christmas" in these parts.  Here's hoping that at the very least, we have a "Green" weekend prior to the Christmas weekend as the CD Rams bring home the PIAA AAAA football trophy!  Maybe D3 will begin to win more of these prestigious championships as the West Shore SD is discussing the merging of their 2 high schools into ONE SPORTS PROGRAM!  This would save over a half million bucks!  Man, I don't really see that happening, but it would create a rather powerful and formidable opponent in District 3!  What the heck would their mascot be...the Centaurs?  Wow!

(Please forgive my feeble attempt at doctoring an image!)

Have a great PIAA AAAA football finals week's end!

Smitty

AA:  It's looking like a "Green Christmas" is in store...but there still is a small possibility of some snow on/around Christmas Day. 

Football Forecast

Just a very brief post to let y'all know that once again, weather WILL NOT be a factor in the PIAA AAAA State Championship Game this Saturday evening at the concrete palace.  Here is the progged temps for Saturday evening in PA.  It appears game time temps will be in the low 30s.

And wind will not be a factor for this game!  Take a look.

And widening our view from just PA to the country.  The eastern 2/3 of the country will be dominated by high pressure and fair weather.

And a closeup of Hershey Park Stadium at the conclusion of the Central Dauphin Rams-North Penn Knights AAAA PIAA Football championship.  That is being held by a Ram...can't you tell?

Have a great PIAA State Championship Football weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Mostly clear and cold for football...Saturday evening game.  CD Over North Penn to claim the PIAA AAAA football title!