Phantastic Phull Latitude Phase Phor Philly

Just practicing my alliteration phor the title.  Sorry...Now hear this...This storm will be nothing short than historic for the mountains of WV and PA!  Now how is that for my extremism?!?  But it is April 21 and we are looking at a classic nor'easter that if it were winter, we'd be hearing this event given the moniker "Storm of the New Century"!  If the 12Z NAM snowfall forecast would verify, PA will be declared a disaster area where the snowfall accumulates in excess of 4".  This will be horrendous as the weight of the heavy wet snow will down trees and power lines especially since the trees are in full foliage due to the early spring!  Take a look at this model!



I think the Pirates might not play on Monday although the Colorado Rockies used to this type of weather....well....sort of!  Here, let's take a look at the current visible satellite pic of the gathering gloom...look at the cyclonic circulation already prevalent in the Gulf of Mexico!  Also note the clouds over MN, ND, SK, & MB.  The clouds over the northern plains represent the match that will ignite the fuel which is being seen over the Gulf coast states.  Isn't this exciting?  If this were January, East would be dismissed already for Monday!

Here is the latest prog of the upper air (500 mb) for Monday morning when the negatively titled trough will grab the southern part of the storm and pull it NNW!  That 534 mb closed upper low and all of that vorticity or spin right over us will almost certainly guarantee thunderstorms Monday morning!  This is the type of map I would draw while sitting in Electricity and Magnetism struggling to understand anything about Faraday or Gauss.  That is why I was so happy with "D" for done for what was my most challenging class at PSU!  By the way, nice wx down in the 4 corners area of the US!

And here is the surface reflection of the above air synoptic set-up...

Central PA could be spared the worst of this as the cold conveyor looks to be over the western half of PA...The Allegheny Plateau...while the central mountains and the Susquehanna Valley might get "dry slotted" just a bit.  It's too early to be certain as the exact path of the center of lowest pressure as a shift of only 50-75 miles further east would very likely allow for some accumulating snow to occur on the mountains just north of Harrisburg!  With all of that said, I am still issuing a barometer watching warning as the pressure may drop to 28.70 mb at KMDT sometime Monday morning!  The lowest pressure I've recorded at my humble abode here in northern York County is 28.71 mb with a storm back in January 2009.  Winds will be very gusty as depicted by the isobars and if there is any snow on the trees in the mountains, it will take weeks to clean up this devastation!  Here is the NAM's winds for Monday morning.  You can clearly locate the center of low pressure over ACY around noonish Monday!

And here is the NAM's total precip over the next 72 hours!  You can clearly locate the "dry-slot" over central PA.  Truth be told, i am a bit nervous about this thing becoming so strong that is does draw in dry air towards the center of circulation and robs us of our precious drought busting rains we so desperately need!  Take a looksy.....

I mean, check out the Susquehanna's discharge compared to normal for the last few weeks.  We sure could use the rain just like the Flyers sure could use a victory in Game 6 since if their series goes to a Game 7, well, they surely should mobilize their summer plans as their season will most likely end Election Day Tuesday thanks to those Pesky Penguins!

For just some kicks and giggles, since it's hard for me to look past this impending historical April nor'easter, here is what the GFS and the Euro have for the beginning of NEXT WEEK or about the 1st week of May...both are in reasonable, dare I say, excellent agreement with residual NW flow but some warmth from the plains on the doorstep for CD prom weekend...

So it looks like a stormy couple of days...especially a Stormy Monday!  If you have ~10 minutes to kill...and I strongly suggest you should...Enjoy!

Remember to follow me on Twitter as well since I can quickly put updates onto the Twitter feed, but I do realize that Twitter is like taboo for most of you, analogous to me a few years back and my outlook of conjoining with cell phone technology!

Enjoy your week's end and this classic nor'easter!

Smitty

AA:  All the players are setting the stage for one heckuva storm Sunday into Monday!  It will be one for the record books I do believe!  Flooding rains from NJ to eastern New England.  Damaging wet snows in the mountains of PA and West Virginia.  Drought busting rains for the remainder of the
Mid-Atlantic and northeast US!  No Sunday night baseball from The Fens.

I NOW Respectfully Agree With The GFS

Let's look at how the GFS has come around to the other global numerical modeling on this impending storm...which will be one for the record books across the Mid-Atlantic and northeast US!  Here is the run from yesterday valid Monday morning...

Now for the same time but the model run 18 hours later...

Quite a difference in both the intensity of the storm and the positioning of the center of low pressure!  Now here is yesterday's total precip for the event as per the GFS...

s you can see, it has the bulk of the precip falling out over the ocean with KMDT receiving ~0.50" rain.  Now the same model 18 hours later...

Now we are close to 2.25" rain for the event...and what this graphic doesn't show is the wind and cold accompanying this storm!  It will be a good night to stay in and watch Sunday night baseball...but I believe it will be a wash out seeing that it is at Fenway Park in Beantown!  So then, maybe it would be a good night to brush up on your candidates running for office and prepping for Tuesday's primary!  In either case, enjoy your Friday and to quote a sage I've met in my travels "Absolutely nothing will ruin my Friday"!

And enjoy your week's end!  Remember, we NEED the rain!

Smitty

AA:  Major rain event for the upcoming weekend with the bulk of the rain falling Sunday into Sunday night for us.

Update on the Weekend Nor'easter

This is a very brief post updating y'all on the status of this impending nor'easter to affect the east coast of the US in the Saturday to Monday time frame.  The prime time for storminess for us here near KMDT is late Saturday night into late Sunday night.  The sensible weather for us will bring windswept rains and a with a few snowflakes thrown in for good measure, especially for those of you who live on the tops of the ridges just to the north of Harrisburg!  This will be a more serious threat, I do believe, and very much similar to the October snowstorm, for those in the mountains of WV, PA, up into the Adirondacks and further on into northern New England.  This could be one for the record books!  Heavy wet snow will accumulate on the new foliage in the areas will snow will fall and downed trees and power lines will be an issue.

Here is the surface map as depicted by the Euro for Monday morning!  Can you say an old fashioned nor'easter!  In theory, places in the blue shading would be seeing some snow, but at this late stage of the season, this will be elevation dependant.

And here is the upper level support for such a storm.  Look at the negatively tilted trough that spins up this 988 mb monster!

So Smitty, what will our weather be?  The sensible wx should essentially be windswept rains for us flat-landers primarily on Sunday as we receive ~1.5-2.0" of liquid sunshine!  And we sure could use this as both our groundwater and the river have been steadily in decline and are well below normal for this time of the year.  Take a look at the Dauphin county Test Well located at the Gap since April 1...

And the Susky at Harrisburg during the same time period...the brownish triangles near the top of the graph indicate normal discharge!  Wow!

In fact, the entire northeast could use the rain as indicated by this regional picture of surface stream flow...red is dry or below normal...

Gotta go...but before I leave y'all, how about this for a thought.  Since I am accused for being so extreme all of the time with my weather interests and economic concerns, how about this call for the MLB season?!?  The Phillies will end with a worse record than the Orioles and/or the Mets!  I really believe that the Phillies lineup right now, although it is early, doesn't scare the 5th starter on the lowly San Diego Padres!  And the Orioles are blacked out for me on MLB TV...now go figure that one!

Oh well....enjoy your weekend nor'easter!

Smitty

AA:  Looking more and more like an historic weekend nor'easter will affect the east coast of the US!

I Respectfully Disagree With The GFS & NAM

Concerning this weekend's upcoming and impending strong east coast cyclone, I am siding with the foreigners on this one.  Too many times the American modeling progresses systems too quickly and doesn't allow for a full fledged cyclogenesis to occur along the natural baroclinicity of the eastern seaboard.  With the upper air features just now getting to the North American continent, I believe the GFS by the end of today will begin to spin up quite a doozy along the Mid-Atlantic coast and pummel the east coast with gale forced winds and copious amounts of rain late Saturday evening into early Monday morning.  A storm of this intensity is rather rare for this late into the season, but most of the global modeling is suggesting just that.

Lets take a look....1st the GFS for Sunday...a front has passed through PA without any phasing and the storm develops too far off the coast...swing and a miss!

Here is the NAM...similar scenario with disjointed storm formation too far east to truly affect us here in PA.

Now onto the European...It shows a 996 mb low deepening off the Carolina coast with the upper level cold advecting rapidly into the storm as shown by the blue colors...

And here is the "bomb" it develops within 24 hours!  Kaboom!  This would give snows to northern PA up through the Adirondacks and into northern NE!  For us, we'd be looking at wind swept rains totaling 1.5-2.5" by Monday morning.

Even the UKMET has the same potential...although I can only go out 72 hours for the modeling...

So time will tell, but I do believe the truth lies somewhere in between...that is why it is called guidance.  The GFS is too dry and progressive while the extreme Euro is a bit too extreme...yes....even for me!

And speaking of extreme...10-3 final in a Stanley Cup playoff game!  Wow!  That's what happens when you think you can take a night off...or at least not give 100%!  And out on the west coast, Cain and Lee pitch 19 scoreless innings, give up 9 hits, 1 BB, SO 11, and have nothing to show for it!  I believe this might just be a precursor of things to come for the listless Phillies...oh well!

Have a good Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  Nice through Saturday morning, increasing clouds by Sat evening with a few showers, but looking for a major wind driven rain event for Sunday!  Cold to follow for a couple of days.....

Foul Weather Blogger

Recently, I've had several comments from my faithful minions that I have been eerily quiet with my postings.  Admittedly, I have not been as faithful to the Google blogger as I have been to the Cybex Arc Trainer!  I have been however posting a few quick tweets from time to time to give those of you who follow my tweeting a quick "heads-up" as to what the wonderful world of weather might hold in store for us.  And what it has up its sleeve for this weekend is the potential for a news-making storm for New England and northern NY in terms of a late season snowfall, and for us here in central PA, a nice cold soaking rain storm that will instantly make trees go full foliage and allow the grass to grow quicker than the East High girls 4x100m relay team moves their baton around the 400 m track!  But before we go there, lets look at yesterday...here is a wx-gram for the temp and humidities...note the high temp was only 86F whereas the record high for the day was 89F.  Yes, it was near record breaking heat, but the core of the hottest air actually moved "over the top" and was found in upstate NY and New England.  We did spend several hours in the low to mid 80s yesterday which made it so summer-like for a mid-April Patriot Day.

However, during the early morning hours, an air mass front passed through PA and was ushered in on some rather gusty wind shift air movements.  Take a look...note the wind shift from SW last evening to NW at this time. 

And along with that comes much cooler air at all levels which creates the widespread cloudiness that we are experiencing Tuesday as seen on this visible satellite pic.  There is also a minor little disturbance on the southern part of the front that will create some light precip just to the south of PA on Wednesday, but we should remain dry through Sunday.

As for us, high pressure will rule the roost until this anomalous storm spins up this weekend.  Here you can see how the cooler and shall I even say drier air has made the air pressure rise over the last few hours and making for clear sailing through the skies of central PA with VFR wx across the state.

Now onto the weekend...here is a cursory glance at the 500 mb level with a phasing storm system, albeit not as deep as previous runs and showing signs of a more "positive" tilt to the trough axis as had been previously modeled by our numerical forecasters!

And the surface reflection of the upper air as seen below for the same time...

There is substantial agreement amongst the global numerical modeling as seen here with my usual favorite, the Euro.  Take note to the position of the low pressure over northern FL.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show very close cyclogenesis positions...pretty awesome...eh?

And a day later after the low races up the coast, cold air rushes in on the back side of the deepening gale center that will be pulling up into the maritimes of O Canada!  Look at that early season heat building out in the deserts of the 4 corners...no wonder the ball carries so well at Chase Field in Phoenix!  So early next week after a soaker of a Sunday, we are looking at some fairly cool wx for this time of year, but after all, it is late April and temperature swings should be the norm!

And speaking of "norm" and not so "norm", look at the outbreak of severe wx this past weekend and the number of tornadoes that were spawned by this front that just passed through here last night.  Just 2 crazy days has our Tornado Total above normal...this is, in my opinion, a graphic that speaks volumes for severe wx...

And I know that the global warming crowd touts this extreme wx thanks to all of this phony baloney nonsense that you and me are solely responsible for causing this anomalous wx.  Well, I wonder where these folks will be if the Japanese Numerical Climate Prediction (JMA) comes to fruition for this summer period of June, July, and August?

Heck, there might be some GW bridge jumping if this upcoming winter prediction from the JMA verifies!!??!!  At the very least, maybe natural gas prices will rebound some?  NatGas lowest in a decade!  Wow!  Maybe not after next winter...!

OK...gotta get to the foot doctor so he can work his magic and allow me to kick out caloric workouts on the cardio equipment.  Some of you know how ugly my dogs (not Ziggy and Zola) are and at times they can get the better of me.  However, the good doctor makes 'em feel like new for a quarter and its off to the races...as it might be for the sweeping Flyers.  How about that?  Now I know most of you don't really give a hoot about the NHL, but there is something special about the Stanley Cup run, especially when the team you're rooting on is doing well in the first round.  Can only hope it continues if they get past those potentially pesky Penguins.  Here is a nice retro glance at the Broad Street Bullies and Fred Shero's boys...Glory Days...

Hey, since the Phillies games out on the west coast are ending just an hour or two before I awaken, I change my focus to the boys of winter and spring...

Have a good week!

Smitty

AA:  Near record heat Monday followed by dry and seasonable wx through the weekend.  A major storm system looks to be impacting us primarily on Sunday giving about 1.50" rain across most of the eastern part of PA.  Then a cool shot to follow and then once again becoming seasonal for the middle and latter part of the last full week of April.  Here is next Saturday's temperature anomaly from the GFS.  Slightly above normal...GW you know!