Hints of Summer Begin This Week

It's beginning to appear as if summer will make an appearance prior to the solstice in the eastern half of North America.  The longer range modeling is suggesting that a ridge will establish itself in the eastern third of the US while cooler air will dominate the western half of the US.  While the Euro and the GFS do have different solutions as to how this evolves, both are hinting at a warm start to June as a ridge is forecast to develop over the eastern US.  This jet configuration will establish a SW flow at all levels to usher in heat and humidity from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the NE.  There is one major fly in the ointment however with this solution and that is the warm anomalies over SE O' Canada.  This tends to promote surface high pressure which could establish a "back-door" frontal play as warm humid air lies just to our SW.  If this would occur, temps would be much cooler and precip much higher in the first week of June.  I'm not seeing that occurring however and will go with the bulk of the ensembles suggesting a northern displaced jet stream becoming established.  The maps below show the anomalies and the various jet stream runs of the ensembles during that 1st week of June.

Before we get to the Memorial Day Weekend, this upcoming week once again suggests that PA will enjoy above normal precip as an approaching front from the upper Midwest dies out over us here in the east.  This atmospheric weakness will allow for numerous showers and T-storms to develop essentially at any time during the Monday-Friday period.  Temps will be much warmer than last week's however and the precip should not be as great.  The maps below show the accumulated precip through next weekend and the warmer than normal temps for our area.  Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 70s.  I expect next week's maxes to be closer to the low-mid 80s most of the days. We may touch 90ºF on Tuesday (I thought Monday last week) but that is difficult to do with so much water in the ground.   Here is the temperature forecast for next week as per the GFS:

And here is the accumulated precip as per the GFS.  You can clearly see as to how the front looks to stall just to our north and west placing us in the warm sector of the atmosphere but also allowing for ample opportunity for precip to occur.

In a touch of irony, the last map shows the soil moisture index across the states.  It's no surprise that PA is quite wet (and this doesn't take into account this past week!) but the ironic touch is Cajun country.  The area presently becoming inundated with Miss River flooding has been undergoing a drought this past late winter and spring.  It's very obvious how nature tries to balance out her imbalances.

If you have nothing else to do for the next 7 minutes of your life, here is a very timely tribute to those suffering in harms way from one of the most versatile bands of the ages.  I don't think Cajun Music falls into their genre, but there were a few ditties they performed that weren't too far off.  This, however, is most certainly a rockin' blues tribute for those at the mercy of the Mississippi's walls.

Enjoy the week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Gradually pulling into summer with an upcoming warm and wet week followed by a true taste of summer 1st week of June.

The Graph Says It All!

So why must I say anything at all?  It's been a rainy, cool week as compared to normal.  The graphic below shows that we are now at 24"+ of rain for the year and the dark green shading indicates that we are well above normal for the year.  This should allow most of the early part of the growing season to be adequately equipped with the necessary water requirements if farmers and gardeners alike can get their seed in the ground!  The coolness of the atmosphere also shows quite nicely, especially during this past week as compared to normals.  The nighttime temps are actually a bit above normal thanks to the thick overcast of this past week.  However, with the rainfall, the daytime temps remained well below normal.  The below normal snowfall which is also shown in the graphic at the bottom will enable yours truly to imbibe on wings and lemon water thanks to our esteemed English mentor and weather aficionado!

We look to be on target Monday for a very warm day with temps in the mid 80s but to reach 90 might be a stretch.  My spirit was there but the atmosphere may be unwilling!  The remainder of next week looks to be governed by a stationary front that will meander over our region allowing for changeable conditions with frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Depending on which side of the front we land, temps will be either warm and humid or cooler and damp....not really dry crisp air!  The map below is depicted for next Wednesday.  Note the front is too close for comfort.

Have a great week's end and try to beat Animal Kingdom with Mucho Macho Man running down Shackleford and Flashpoint for my exotic in the Preakness this Saturday!  So a few minutes following  the crooning Maryland my Maryland, maybe I'll be cashin' with my WP and Exacta Box with The Man on top!

Smitty

AA:  Drier Saturday, showers late Sunday as very warm air invades for Monday.  Then unsettled again for next week but not as bad as this week!  See above for Preakness play!  Have fun at Districts!

Sunny Saturday Followed by 90 on Monday?

It will be a cloudy dreary week of weather where rain can and will fall at any time through Friday.  The map below shows the NAM's interpretation of the amount of precip that looks to fall here by Thursday.  The heaviest of the rain will fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening followed by a chance of showers and even the occasional rumble of thunder at anytime through Friday.  The shift in the heaviest rain bands could have our area receive anywhere from about an inch of rain to about 4 inches of rain through the period.  Truth be told, I'm looking realistically about 2.00 inches of precip through Friday.

Once this blocking pattern finally breaks down, and this will not occur until Friday at the earliest, it appears as if drier air will sweep in from the north both at the surface and aloft creating a mostly sunny day Saturday and most certainly a LAWN MOWING WARNING will issued at this time for Saturday!  The map below shows the 700 mb level where the darker pinkish colors indicate dry air at 10,000 feet and ultimately sunny skies once the morning fog evaporates.  After all, once the fog evaporates, it won't be missed!

On Sunday, a stray shower or t-storm may surface as a surface warm front invades from the SW.  This will allow a boundary of instability to develop and the possibility of a shower or two as the warm air advects into PA.  This leads the to the possibility of a very warm Monday where the temps in the lower Susquehanna Valley will easily reach the mid 80s and possibly flirt with the 90 degree mark.  The 2 maps below show the surface map with the warm front near PA and the surface temperature anomalies for next Monday!





The map above is the ensembles of the GFS's 15 different runs. There are many of the ensembles that show a more extreme solution of 15-20 degrees above normal. I'm not convinced that we will hit 90F, but the pattern is certainly suggesting a very warm day on Monday. It is very difficult to hit extreme high temps with so much water in the ground, but I am saying temps will approach our 1st 90F reading of the warm season.

As many of you know, the Space Shuttle Endeavour launched today from 39A at Cape Canaveral.  On its final flight, the space shuttle Endeavour is carrying equipment for one of the most important experiments yet to be undertaken by the International Space Station's crew: a massive $2 Billion apparatus that will search for cosmic rays and high-energy particles from deep space. The data from this experiment could help reveal the origin of the universe, lend more evidence to support the Big Bang, and help explain the incredibly elusive Dark Matter!

Enjoy your election day!

Smitty

AA:  A dreary, rain filled week, followed by a nice Saturday, and then possibly our first 90 degree day on Monday.  At the very least, we should hit the mid-80s on Monday.