Euro Consistent With The Pattern Change

Once I cleaned up my desk and departed from school, I arrived at home and first greeted my two four legged wonders (or should I say they greeted me!), treated them to the usual biscuits, brewed a nice cup of decaf (complete with MCT powder), and got to look at the pm runs of the numerical models.  If you are a winter weather enthusiast, well, they did not disappoint.  There looks to be some wx talking over the next several weeks!  It will be quite a change from the rather benign pattern we've been locked into! Let me describe...

First, let's play the game Find the Arctic Front!  Temps will drop throughout the day Wednesday in these parts as true arctic air invades from the NW.  The observations across the state of Florida will be rather interesting that day...Pensacola might be near 40ºF while Jacksonville basks near 80ºF!  Impressive to be sure...

And speaking of Florida, this graphic shows how strong this front will be as anomalous cold moves all the way down the peninsula...amazing!  Graphic below is for next Sunday morning...

For a 5 day average (Wednesday-Sunday), this is noteworthy for this early in the cold season...

And by Sunday, the arctic hounds will feel at home as snow will fly and blanket much of the north country east of the Mississippi setting the stage for repeated cold shots to be longer and possibly even stronger...

At least the longer range climate models (usually warm biased) feel that way.  First, the temp anomalies for December...remember, the graphic below includes the first 6 mild days upcoming!

And even into the 1st 15 days of the new year...

OK...the coffee has been drunk and the doggie biscuits have lost their satiation, at least for our big boy...Ziggy the Flabrador!  He keeps whining to eat his din-din (that little devil...he'll sit still with any humiliating prop just to get that biscuit from the photographer)!

OK...enjoy this ditty to kick off you week's end...I don't think this song gets enough air time...

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Looks certain that an acrtic shot will invade the US next Tuesday and reach the east coast by Wednesday.  Make sure you get your outside lights up by then!

Serious Cold Getting Ready To Roll

After what has been a dry and relatively mild end of November, the 1st full week of December will continue to be the same.  But once we get to the end of next week, the proverbial bottom will be poised to drop out.  This will be a real cold slap in the face (or in keeping with news of the current times...some other unspeakable location on one's anatomy...)!  Let me show y'all how this evolves...

First the past week of mildness/warmth especially in the northern plains.  The only reason PA is not above norms is the fact the the days around Thanksgiving dawned very cold with both turkey day and the Black Friday sunrise temps hovering around 20°F at our humble abode!  The sun and dry weather allowed for temps to rebound nicely but from rather low levels for this time of year!  Take a look...

If you believe the model below...and I do, coast to coast warmth will rule the roost for the 1st week of December...

But before you know it, the jet stream will buckle from our benign zonal west to east flow to a rather amplified pattern that will usher in some very cold air for this time of year...especially without any snow cover in these parts.  But O Canada is plenty snow covered, and the invading arctic air masses will not moderate as quickly and will actually spread the the white arctic carpet further and further south by next week's end...First the convoluted and amplified jet over North America...that is one seriously deep trough!

And with that, the 850 temps will crash!  The dreaded "Barney"colors are once again appearing...

That is one heck of a cold shot!  In fact, this 5 day average is nothing to sneeze at keeping in mind the 1st 36 hours of this are actually above normals.  5°C is actually closer to 10°F below seasonal norms...and for this time of year, Baby, it's gonna get cold outside!

Now I know what is on everyone's mind...is it gonna snow???  Well, one thing I can almost assure you is yes...but I can't promise when!  Ha!  But to be sure, the first ingredient will certainly be in place...and I believe locked in at least through Christmas and likely into the new year.  Quite a change from the last 2 Decembers!  Take a look...

OK...gotta heat the soup my lovely bride has created.  We've been supping with squash and or sweet spud soup blended together with all of the usual suspects and add some sort of greens (collards/kale/radish/etc...).  Tonight's amalgamation is sans greens, however. (I actually put a drop of Dave's Insanity Sauce in for some added heat...yummy.) Still will be awesome!

By the way...a 4.4 earthquake just hit 10 km ENE of Dover, DE...just thought you might like to know...I did not feel it; I have the music on just a tad too loud...

Of course, the song choice is easy with my reference above...enjoy!

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  Gonna get darn cold by end of next week...so get all of your fall cleanup taken care of this week's end when temps will be slightly above norms.  By next Friday/Saturday...cold and getting colder!