Twas The Night After Christmas...

...and all through the @SmittysSynopsis (Twitter handle) house,

Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse (possibly due to the exorbitant feral cat population in our area!)

No stockings were hung by our chimney this year

We were simply thankful for all we hold dear.

The children (Ziggy and Zola) were nestled & curled on the bed

While visions of feral pussy cats danced in their heads.

And Kay with her nightshirt, and I in my PJs

Had just settled down since there were no more sun's rays.

When over on my nightstand there laid my iPad

My insomnia kicked in, I looked to see what the Euro had.

Away to my desktop, I flew like a flash

Opened up Google Chrome, to see if the GFS was trash.

The waning crescent moon was rising in the southeast

Provided enough light to see my kids outside; those beasts!

When what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But the latest Euro run, providing PA with a moderate snow to end the year!

OK...I'll stop there with my apologies to Clement Clarke Moore...

But I will show the the GFS has a slightly more phased solution, but doesn't hold the cold over the eastern sections of PA like the Euro and thus we end up with a moderate to possibly heavy rain event to end the year.  

Which is correct?  It's too early to tell.  But my concern for receiving an appreciable snowfall will wane like our present moon if we don't see larger arctic high build across southern O Canada during this time frame.  The old adage, predict the high; predict the snow works very well in these types of scenarios especially at this time of year!  The Euro has a high, but it is not very strong as low pressure seems to easily slice its way into New England.  Certainly, interior locations especially in the north country will start to re-develop their snow pack, but it may be too warm here for any appreciable accumulations.

Here is the GFS in terms of surface pressures for the same time period...it is a nice synoptic set up with the exception of a BIG BURLY HIGH in Quebec.  Personally, I'd like to see it a few mb higher...this will once again be a close call for snow/rain and the dividing line will be close to our area.  Some things never change!

So we will begin to hear of a coastal development for early next week...so I'll try my best to keep y'all updated on the latest modeling updates and expert forecasters thoughts and ideas.  One thing I believe is becoming more and more certain is some serious cold will develop once this storm passes.  Here is the eastern trough setting up for later next week...

That is a cold 500 mb map for January...and it appears January will be on the colder than normal side for us if you believe the CFSv2...

I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas Day, and continue to enjoy the Christmastide celebrations for the next week or so... 

Smitty

AA:  Monitoring the possibility of a coastal storm developing late in the weekend into early next week...followed by some fairly robust cold.  Enjoy this Christmastide with your young family!

Merry Christmas!

First off...Merry Christmas to everyone!  The most joyous of the holidays, Christmas often marks the beginning of the worst winter can offer in these parts.  However, our winter weather actually came quite early to us arriving in time for Turkey Day and lasting right through the middle of the December.  But what actually had been a rather impressive snow pack is all but a soggy memory now as record warmth invaded the eastern US!  Look at the last 60 days (prior to the warm-up) across North America in terms of temps as compared to the 30 year average...

And...yes...that warm up was one for the record books all up and down the east coast!  Here at KMDT, we actually smashed our Dec 22 record between 2:30 am and 3 am when the mercury shot up 9ºF on a strong south wind!  I walked outside just to feel the warmth and humidity directly delivered to us compliments of that powerful southerly wind!  Note the warmth from the 20th on...and note the persistent cold prior!

In fact, here is what December looks like temperature-wise across the country to this point...the last several days really "tempered" the cold bias for the month...note the strong west Atlantic ridge and warmth over the SE USA as compared to the rest of the country...this is what help create a storm track that help create our brief snow pack.  Also note the reloading cold in south central O Canada!

And, for what it is worth, that cold held tough for our neighbors to the north as one of the worst ice storms in recent years pummeled the southern province of Ontario over the weekend cutting power to hundreds of thousands in and around the city of Toronto.  Note how the rain and the warm temps wiped out much of the snow pack in the east...

CURRENT:

DECEMBER 15:

This snow covered earth is is key to the upcoming couple of weeks as air masses that will be directly discharged from the arctic WILL NOT moderate too much as they advect south and east in what is forecast to be quite a trough in the upper atmosphere over the next several weeks!  Many meteorological signs are pointing to a period of cold that will bring hardship to those who simply are unable to deal with these brutal outbreaks of cold!  The graphic below shows the last 3 runs of the CFS v2 in terms of surface temps for the month of January.  That is a classic ridge west, cold east stormy wx pattern.  And the model is also sniffing out a very deep snow cover in northern New England!

Here is how the upper air forecast appears for the New Year's Eve celebrations...bundle up!

And ALL global models have a storm spinning up the coast for roughly early next week.  It is way too early to pinpoint details, but a coastal storm will be lurking in these parts sometime early next week.  Here is O Canada's run for the last Sunday of 2013.

And then the hounds of winter will really be unleashed...look at that arctic front crossing PA just in time for the 1st weekend of 2014!

Here are the top 10 analogs for the forecasted upper air heights for next week as per the GFS.  There are some cold periods that show up and and that is a classic cross polar and stormy looking signature!

OK...I've rambled enough.  I believe you get the idea that is appears this upcoming January will be a cold one for us here in the eastern part of the US.  Now that we are past the winter solstice, the days will begrudgingly lengthen...but the old adage "As the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens" will hold true this January.  I hope you enjoyed the furnace resting warmth of the past few days as the furnace will be cranking into the first several weeks into the New Year!  In fact, I'll leave y'all with this James Taylor rendition of an old hymn...

In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan,

Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone;

Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow,

In the bleak midwinter, long ago.

Our God, Heaven cannot hold Him, nor earth sustain;

Heaven and earth shall flee away when He comes to reign.

In the bleak midwinter a stable place sufficed

The Lord God Almighty, Jesus Christ.

Enough for Him, whom cherubim, worship night and day,

Breastful of milk, and a mangerful of hay;

Enough for Him, whom angels fall before,

The ox and ass and camel which adore.

Angels and archangels may have gathered there,

Cherubim and seraphim thronged the air;

But His mother only, in her maiden bliss,

Worshipped the beloved with a kiss.

What can I give Him, poor as I am?

If I were a shepherd, I would bring a lamb;

If I were a Wise Man, I would do my part;

Yet what I can I give Him: give my heart.

Merry Christmas to y'all! Enjoy your family and friends!  For unto you is born this day...a savior for all people...who is Christ the Lord!

Smitty

AA:  After this impressive warm spell, cold will invade once again, especially in earnest next week with some serious cold on the move towards the US and these parts!  Merry Christmas my friend!