Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
As we approach the wonderful holiday of Thanksgiving, as we all should acknowledge everyday, hints of the oncoming cold season will be clearly evident. There will be 3 strong shots of O Canadian cold being delivered to PA on brisk NW winds, the 1st of which will be occurring after our Saturday soaker. Let me get to the graphics...
First the onset of the precip looks to be mid to late Saturday morning as the column must saturate before the drops can reach the ground. With current dewpoints in the low 20s, this will take some time to moisten the lower levels. So early morning (sunrise-ish) should be dry, but the rain will be quick on the dawning day's heels! Take a look...
The graphic above is the total precip by 10 am Saturday and the graphic below is when the rain has ended by Sunday afternoon with a few left over showers and even some flakes of snow which may be observed in these parts...
As usual, I've been analyzing the modeling the last several days and it looks as if 0.75"-1.25" seems to be reasonable in the KMDT area. It truly depends where the onset warm frontal rain band sets up; a little further north, a bit drier; south-wetter. That's always a tough call for PA, especially with a diving cold shot as seen below!
We will be deep in some anomalous cold by Monday morning. The temps will moderate a tad Tuesday and Wednesday, but another shot of cold is coming from O Canada for Turkey Day...
But the coldest of the cold will be coming to greet the deer hunters of PA Thanksgiving Monday...Barney purple is cold on these maps!
What lies ahead for the month of December is still "up in the air" so to speak! The graphic below is the Euro ensembles from essentially today until the New Year...take a gander...
So the guidance is currently suggesting a below normal time of it all for the foreseeable future, beginning with a wind swept blast of cold later this weekend. And speaking of this weekend...ENJOY!
And enjoy this 3 shot blues ditty...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: If you're not done mowing, you sure should be by next weekend! Cold and getting colder...and I don't think the grass is getting any greener!
After what was a November 11 feeling more like a January 11, we will slowly work our way back to normal temps. I don't see any warming per se, just a slow crawl to scour the cold out of the SusQ Valley just in time for a series of cold fronts to push through in the 6-10 day period. The last 2 of these fronts will truly wreak havoc in the lee of the lakes and the onset of winter in the north country will have commenced in earnest (and in NY and MI and WI and New England and northern PA!...haha). My first graphic is accumulated snows centered on the Great Lakes...note the downwind snowfalls thanks to the arctic air pushing over the relatively warm lakes...also note the 6 month long snowpack beginning to seriously develop over Ontario and Quebec where those hearty residents are helpless against the advancing arctic air masses!
In order to have good lake effect squalls, a temperature difference must exist between the air mass moving over the "warm" lakes. The acceptable threshold many atmospheric physicists use for guidance is ~20°F; the greater the difference, the more wild the weather. Blizzard-like squalls with wicked wind and lightning are not too uncommon during the most optimal synoptics for lake effect. I'm not suggesting that for later next weekend, but the possibility is certainly on the table. The current temperatures of the surface waters of the Great Lakes...
The warmest air often precedes the cold frontal passage as air at all levels often surges SW to NE ahead of the advancing front...that would likely be in the Friday-Saturday time frame.
But then, arctic front number ones blasts through Saturday night and the arctic air is deeply entrenched Sunday. That is a serious shot of arctic chill. Dare I say yet another record minimum in the days running up to Turkey day?
Then, that upper air should pull away with the low level cold hanging tough here at the surface in the SusQ Valley. Before much moderation in temps can occur, look at what's coming right behind!
So, it is my belief that from here until the end of November, not much if any above normal temps will be experienced in our region. A low sun angle coupled with stubborn stratocumulus so prevalent in November leads me to believe that we too are helpless with the onset of the upcoming season.
With those "Helpless" references...here is a dandy...enjoy!
And enjoy your Sunday! I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder with time. Duh'...winter is coming! But it will be coming fast and furious around the Great Lakes and the arctic chill coming to these parts as well I believe. We set 2 record lows Friday and Saturday; a couple more might be in the cards before this month is past!
