Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
The potential of the east coast's first winter storm of 2013-14 now appears to be off the table...or should I say off the continent and well into the Atlantic Ocean. However, the east's first real bout of winter-like temps will most certainly be around this upcoming week as a deep trough will dig well into Dixie and deliver impressively cold air for this time of year with the freezing line advancing into the deep south. This is all compliments of a monster 1048 mb high pressure as seen here on the Euro...
By Tuesday afternoon, the polar front will have passed well off the coast and a northerly flow will be advectiving cold air into our region. Here are the 850 mb temps for early Wednesday...the axis of the coldest air will remain SW from Lake Michigan ENE towards the Gulf of the St. Lawrence...
But within 2 days, the deepest chill will be moderating back towards normal...although the surface temps may struggle to climb as quickly...
But where is this storm that the Euro was so bullish on for several consecutive runs? Wide right!
I'm not convinced this is the final solution as the pattern is changing as the teleconnections of the NAO, AO, and the PNA are signaling a switch from positive to negative or vice-versa...and I'm not convinced this snow output will verify either. The folks along the SC coast or those vacationing there sure are hoping it doesn't!
Note the lake effect snows downwind of the Great Lakes...especially Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill Plateau! One thing does look likely in the longer term and that a surge of late season warmth will try to make a run at the NE as seen below...
In fact, the climate models are suggesting the same for the 3rd week of the month...
But don't get too used to that as the modeling is suggesting a cold upcoming Thanksgiving season for the east...but PHX looks nice and warm me timing compadre!
Remember, those maps are normalized over several days, so they tend to show tendencies rather than day to day swings. And the maps are in ºC, so multiply by 2 for a better feel for our temp scale mindfulness...and speaking of mindfulness, keep in our thoughts those adversely afflicted by nature's fury known as Typhoon Haiyan...
Such a powerful storm...but such an impressive natural creation from our maker!
And a still hi-res...breath-taking
So much wx...so little time! And speaking of time, I'd like to just publicly thank everyone for their kind words over the past couple of weeks as word has spread that I am no longer going to be a part of the CDSD athletics support staff on a regular basis. I was truly humbled by the numerous comments and well wishes tossed my way. But now I'll have more time to read about Medium Chain Triglycerides (MCTs), Pulsed Electromagnetic Field Therapy and Stimulation (PEMF), and High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT). I know...sounds like such fun! But I truly want to stimulate my cellular mitochondria and generate a greater quantity of ATP for cellular regeneration! I'll also get to read a few more books like Killing Jesus, Napoleon's Buttons, and other non-fiction texts. For those that know me, that is truly a maturation accomplishment as my ADHD often limits me to reading Twitter ($TWTR) feeds and news articles containing 250 words or less! I'll spend more time with my family...much to the delight of my kids and grand-kid...
AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE TIME TO BLOG! I'm sure y'all can't wait...hahaha! With that, I'm off to PF and begin my week's end...and I hope y'all enjoy your week's end as well. And enjoy this ditty from an Album that I've been getting into lately whilst exercising at the gym...ya think they're havin' fun or what? Jammin' baby!
Congrats CD Rams on a successful football season; sorry to see it end...Go East...Go into York County and continue that playoff ride...maybe all the way to Hersheypark Stadium on November 30?!!
Thanks for reading...
Smitty
AA: Snow potential looks to be less and less for later this week. But cold air will invade big time! Moderating temps then afterwards before getting cold again for Thanksgiving week. But I'll update long before then...here is the Euro meteogram for Harrisburg; that is a COLD WEDNESDAY!
Just a very brief post comparing the snowfall progs from the almighty Euro valid next Friday morning...this is simply unreal! Look at that insane bulls-eye down in the mountains of southern VA & WVA! Is this a precursor of things to come this winter? Time will only tell...
Here is the surface pressure and the 850 mb winds...that is a screaming jet over the Lower Susquehanna Valley leading to copious amounts of precip! The type of precip would be in question as warm air off the ocean would undoubtedly get pulled in aloft and melt some of the dendrites on the way to the surface...but the surface will be cold enough to support frozen precip! We are in for a wild ride it now appears...
And that Philly marathon might be a "wild" time as well...if the above earlier run would verify...it might be a "Steeplechase Marathon"! Ain't winter wx fun?
Enjoy your Thursday evening NCAA special...2 good games on paper! Just like a good storm on paper above!
Smitty
AA: Just monitoring the modeling for later next week!
Earlier this week, the Euro had a major nor'easter in its 10 day forecast. Being that it was a 10 day away event, I really didn't heed to much of a warning. However, now it is in the 7 day realm, and the GFS also has a similar solution, one must begin to wonder if we will have our first major accumulating snow around mid-November? Here is the meteogram from the Euro for KCXY for the next 10 days. Snow or not, one thing that looks certain is that arctic air will invade the lower 48 and become involved with our wx beginning the middle of next week!
Note that ~0.75" of precip falls while temps are at or below freezing! Tomorrow and Saturday will feel like a walk in the park compared to next weekend if the temp forecast verifies...and I believe it will as a monster arctic high is building down from O Canada! Take a look at this 1042 mb monster!
But by Thursday pm, a deep surface low will attack the high pressure to the north in what looks like a classic set-up for an early season winter-like nor'easter! Banana high to the north, low pressure with ample moisture attacking from the SW, warm ocean offshore setting up a perfect baroclinic boundary in which the low will ride...man, doesn't this get your winter wx juices flowing?
Here is the potential snowfall as per the Euro...this is valid early next Friday am...I don't think I've ever seen a map of this snowfall potential this early in the season! I will have to check the year, but Myers and myself were traipsing up around Fowler's Hollow in mid-November in knee-thigh deep snow in 1989? That was definitely the earliest deep snow for my lifetime in these parts...
A deep trough is supported through upper air teleconnections as ample heat and humidity is re-curving along the eastern Asian coast with a late season outburst of tropical cyclones. Here is the latest (Haiyan)...what a beaut; note the symmetry...picture-perfect!
You know, all of this extreme wx will be bringing out further calls for carbon taxes as we energy gluttonous humans are modifying the wx! I'd like the global warming crowd to explain this tid-bit...
Or this one...(from last Monday!)
So if this verifies...
...will we see this type of an explanation from the global warming crew? Just sayin'...
Enjoy your Thursday...and Friday...I might get to update sometime over the week's end! It will be interesting to monitor the modeling...
Smitty
AA: Clearing out later Thursday. Blustery and autumnal Friday-Saturday. Moderating Sunday-Monday until another major frontal passage and much colder air intrudes for middle to end of next week. Possibility of snow does exist later next week.
