Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Climatologically, February tends to be KMDT's snowiest month with many numerous 3"+ type storms. The true blockbusters tend to come until mid-March and it is of my belief that our end game of winter will not disappoint those wanting winter to wear onward and upward. It certainly will be a major winter event Wednesday into the evening followed by a brief and MILD respite until the energy reloads for next week. The first week of March also looks dicey as well, but that will be a different story for a different day. Let's start with Wednesday...
The graphic above is a high resolution of the various types of precip and the total amount of each. Note the minimal green (rain) around KMDT compared to the snow (blue) and freezing rain (pink). My gut feeling is that the upper air will be dynamically cooled sufficiently to keep this event more snow than ice. And the snow will start in a light fashion, but buckle up! Within and hour or so, if the numerical guidance is correct, the mid levels will support some serious precip rates of 1-2" snows per hour. With temps in the low-mid 20s, even with a Feb 20 sun angle, driving conditions will deteriorate very quickly in these parts and...well...you can see the issue! This will occur for the bulk of the day until late in the afternoon when sleet mixes briefly before transferring to light freezing rain and drizzle. This is when the ice will accumulate and potentially do so to our greatest accretion this winter. More snow; less ice accretion...and vice versa. Below I'm showing the 15:1 because I believe that at rapid rates of snowfall I'm of the belief will be occurring along with the slower onset of sleet, this is more likely to be closer to the totals...lesser accumulations result from quicker sleet and/or slower snows...
Many of you have heard me say, predict the high...predict the snow. This is high pressure! That's 1042 mb just NE of the Endless Mountains! What's that Smitty? Darn cold and dry air...a perfect set up for overrunning precip here in PA (if you like snow/ice/wintry weather).
And the mid-level juice is amped to say the least...green is very wet! That's my rationale for heavy quick accumulating snows...quite heavy rains in TN as I type moving directly towards PA...
And just for a little teaser for next week for those of you interested...a 2 day total of snow with a true MillerA nor'easter centered on next Wednesday...waaaaaay toooooo far away to predict, but interesting to share I do believe...
I thank all of you who have asked my opinion the last few days. "Impactful" was my most used descriptor, and Wednesday's major winter storm might be our most impactful yet to date. Will it be our most impactful of 2018-19? To be determined...
I'm out...enjoy the tune! For mi amigo from Lanco...just don't think it will be "softly" for much of the event!
Smitty
AA: Snow starts 1 hour either side of sunrise and from 10-3 pm becomes very heavy! 1-2"/hour ending as a brief period of sleet then light freezing rain and drizzle to glaze winter's freshly fallen blanket. Might? tickle 60°F Sunday prior to a true nor'easter next Tuesday-Wednesday...? SD Padres World Series odds cut in half with recent signing!
