Yesterday & Tomorrow

Hey...but what about today?  It is the proverbial calm before the storm...if gusts to 39 mph are "calm?"!  That's right, I had several wind gusts into the mid 30s today with my highest gust of 39 mph at just after noontime.  So even though my thermometer peaked at 41ºF, it still wasn't a pleasant day outdoors.  The huge cyclone that paid us a visit yesterday is now well off to pay the Canadian maritimes a visit.  Meanwhile the Missouri Mauler is a-comin'.  Here what all of this looks like topside...

The latest GFS shows where the path of heaviest snowfall will occur mainly pre-dawn until noon or so...

The NAM is slightly more amped...keep in mind that ratios with this event will be slightly greater than the typical 10:1 snow:liquid ratio...so some places might surprise to the upside!

Here's the official call from the NWS State College...

But whatever does fall, it will pile onto the the 38.7" that has already fallen at KMDT.  That's their "official" globally warmed measurement.  Many areas in and around the KMDT area often measure with greater precision and enthusiasm ultimately recording far better and accurate results!  Here is a link to yesterday's storm totals...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

If you access this link after Saturday, simply navigate back through time by going to the top of the page and clicking where it has previous version or previous numbers prior to 1.

Here's what this massive mid-latitude did over the last 2 days as seen in terms of snow accumulations!  It was a powerful work of nature!

Once the Missouri Mauler pushes through and explodes off the east coast Saturday...

...there will be some light warm air advection snows Monday night into early Tuesday.  Then the warming trend will TRY to invade our region.  But with this bulletproof snow pack, it will be difficult to attain anomalous warmth easily.  Below is the 5 day mean ending next Saturday.  Note how New England down through eastern PA struggle to get "too" warm...but the Carolinas are cookin'!

The trend is most decidedly for a thaw, albeit briefly, until another arctic air mass invades for the end of February...in the above map, the purple people eater is lurking north of MSP!  Now he invades the northern plains.....AGAIN!  This map is for the 5 days ending February!

OK...gotta run and kick-off my celebratory President's Day weekend.  The President of the United States...just think of that!  What an awesome title for some true American heroes!  Washington, Lincoln...these Patriots were just that; defenders and upholders of the Constitution of the United States!  What an incredible responsibility and yes...they rate as heroes in my book!  Hey it's difficult to find a good song about those 2 presidents together, but I thought I'd share another favorite of mine with Lincoln in the title...many of you will reminisce with this one! (plus isn't the Daytona 500 soon?)  Enjoy!

Remember, astronomical spring is only another month away!

Smitty

AA:  Another fresh coating of ~3" tonight into early Saturday.  Then another smattering Monday night.  Then the thaw!  But winter lurks for the last week of February!

Weather Banter

I was very humbled this past week with the impending, and now current, major winter storm.  Many people in my everyday encounters asked why I did not opine or blog about the storm.  "Smitty, which model you buying?"...or "Smitty, is it really going to snow a foot?"  I know many folks love to talk about the weather; however, I was truly honored by how many truly wanted to know my opinion.  I honestly felt that there is so much weather information out there that I was essentially piling on or being a "5th wheel".  But many of you have recently reaffirmed the fact that you enjoy these efforts and actually put a grain of faith in the prognostications.  I'm telling you, my inside informant has far more experience than I!

Not only my contacts with my buddy above, but when you see the birds in our area take down a black-oil sunflower seed feeder in less than 2 hours, well you know something is a-brewin'!  I never really gave much credibility to the wooly-bear caterpillar in terms of their long range prognostication capabilities, but many of my acquaintances swear by these critters!

So as I sit here with 8" of fresh white cold powder and visibilities reduced to about 0.25 mile in heavy snow, I just wanted to give a huge thanks to all of you who read this, talk weather, love the natural dynamics of this world and appreciate what goes into trying to figure out future weather events.  In fact, over the years, my favorite economist has actually become quite informed about the workings of the atmosphere and in particular numerical guidance!  He's a true testament to the fact that one's interests in any topic will carry the day!  We banter from time to time with the use of social media!

He was referring to the GFS (America's global numerical model) insisting this would be a light to at best moderate event as compared to the Euro which since Sunday had a major hit in PA!  And his interpretation of the modeling was actually quite insightful.  Now if he could only interpret the macro global economic conditions with as much zest and zeal so I can choose my investments with rock-solid confidence!

I often peruse the maps, charts, discussions, models, numerical guidance, etc while engaging in my early morning cardio routine.  So to pass the time, I will post some of these maps on Twitter and from time to time I do get some responses...

So please, if you'd like and have a Twitter account, follow @SmittysSynopsis.  It's not all weather related, but I'd say 90% of the time it is.  The other 10% you'll have to put up with my music quirkiness, my political "ponderances", and my commentary on athletics.  But usually, I will post sensible maps that are designed to explain the sensible weather.  Like this...the NWS forecast for snowfall through Friday morning...

Or this, the Euro's placement of the cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon...

Or this, the Hi-Resolution NAM's call on total snowfall by the end of this event...

And even this...the likely welcomed but albeit brief thaw arriving later next week!  Note the warmth all around central PA and the cold holding over the bulletproof snow pack here in central PA!  Also note the anomalous cold lurking to the NW!  

In closing, I truly do appreciate y'all asking, touting, inquiring, bantering, questioning, harassing, or whatevering me about this wonderful world of weather!  And I'll try to inform and educate about all things weather-wise and even some things other-wise.  In addition, I'll also leave y'all with some of my favorite visualizations such as this...

Or my favorite tunes...like this...

So enjoy your snow day...and thanks for reading!

Smitty

AA:  Heavy snow today (10-16") will mix with sleet at times...followed by a brief warm up later next week!  Looking forward to March 9!