Devilish Dorian

It's been quite some time since I pounded these keys on Blogger, so it took a major hurricane threat and some prompting from some loyal readers for me to come out of my blogger slumber.  It's not like I have that much going on in my life that I couldn't type a few paragraphs about the weather...but the birth of my son's daughter is a pretty darn good excuse I do believe (Penelope Rita)...I call her "Pen-ah-lope"until her personality dictates otherwise...plus there is now a Planet Fitness 2 miles from my place and my dogs have finally settled to a point where they can walk to some meaningful extent on a leash.  Oh yeah...and I'm driving some nice vehicles around the Mid-Atlantic region for kicks and giggles...so I'm keeping busy!  With all of that said, some quick thoughts on this potentially damaging storm for the eastern seaboard of not just Florida, but all of the way north to the Outer Banks of NC.  Please let me share the modeling from the past 24 hours...and I'm sure more changes are on the way...

First the Euro tracks from yesterday...just 12 hours ago...

And now today...

Check out where the centers of low pressure are modeled to be more out to sea as opposed to inland...

And also note how the bulk of the ensemble members keep the storm off the coast!  And I love this graphic showing where the damaging winds will be most likely occurring...this graphic is from now through next Thursday; here's hoping it is accurate as this will keep damage to a minimum along the coastal sections of all of the US...

I'll not bother with the rainfall graphic; suffice to say, the coastal regions will see 2-5" of rain with this track if it were to verify.  Frankly, that's not too different from a typical sea breeze thunderstorm set-up!  But here is the current OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK from the National Hurricane Center...

FWIW...the National Hurricane Center continue to move their forecast track off towards the east for the last few updates...GOOD NEWS!  And gut call as of right now as the ridge to the NE is weakening more than modeled, Andrew will continue to be the only monster of the last several decades!  This is a good graphic of the MAJOR landfalls in FL since 1851...Andrew (1992 near Miami), Labor Day 1935 in the Keys, and last year's Michael up on the panhandle...Gut feeling; no dots will be added to this graphic thanks to Dorian!  Here's hoping any how...

OK...enough for now.  I thank y'all for reading.  You can get great wx info anywhere; for those who have asked, I am humbled to be sure!  And those of you reading this at from a CDSD link, I miss y'all!  Doctor Dolittle (aka B-) was correct last year as I was running around the halls prior to homeroom talking to as many as possible; he kept calling it my farewell tour!  It was all good; Gabe had my HR off to a great start!  Funny stuff!  As for the weather, Helpless.  We have no control.  So I will leave you with this Neil Young classic...and as always, thanks for reading!  And to my CDSD folks, keep fighting the good fight!

Smitty

AA:  Happy Labor Day weekend; especially for you!  I've known a few over the years, but not to the extent of as hard of a worker as you and with the family support you have!  You and your family (and so many other hard working people) are why we celebrate Labor Day!  Relax on Monday, have a beer, and watch the BoSox elimination number approach "0" like the Os have been for a couple of weeks now!