Upcoming Winter Thoughts

Well it's been nearly a year since I last visited this Blogger site since I've been giving just brief snippets about the weather over on FB.  But these thoughts that I've been pondering needed the format of blogger since there will be more verbiage (at the risk of losing some of my loyal readers...) and just a few more graphics.  My idea on this upcoming cold season was requested by a few...so please indulge this post if you are so inclined.

As many of you know, I believe the earth's oceans are a major driving force of earth's weather patterns and ultimately earth's climate system.  In addition, I do find it rather myopic of both media types and political pundits to simply spew out causes of global climate changes when the reality is that earth's climate system is extraordinary complex.  There are a myriad of factors for which one has to account in order to even theorize about the "whys" of the weather observations and trends.  I find it so intriguing as to how our talented physical scientists and mathematicians are able to model short term weather patterns with relative accuracy knowing all of the parameters that must be part of their programs' ingest data.  Yet, many state quite often that "the weathermen are always wrong".  I know you've heard that...maybe even you have made a similar statement.  But so many take many of the climate predictions as gospel!  That's something that I have difficulty grasping.  Earth's climate system is extremely complex, but I do feel there are 2 primary drivers; the sun (aka 'ol Sol) and the oceans.  That's why I'm using these 2 factors in the maps I'm sharing.  Let's dig in...(my 2nd Pike Place has me rolling!)

First the sunspots cycle; the 11 year tendency for sunspots to appear and disappear from the photosphere of the sun.  Sunspots are areas of anomalous magnetism observed on the sun's surface.  They appear darker since they are slightly cooler than their surroundings.  Over the years, there has been some correlation to sunspots and the earth's weather.  If you are so inclined, you may want to look into the Maunder Minimum or The Year Without a Summer.  Our current sunspot cycle is in its minimum part of the 11 year cycle.  I do think sunspots play a role in weather patterns but how that plays out is way above my pay grade.  However, I will use low sunspot activity as one of my 3 parameters.  Below is a graph of our most recent sunspot cycles and the aforementioned longer view dating back to the Maunder Minimum and then some...

I also am using the largest ocean on earth and its current state as to help see what the upcoming cold season may bring.  The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index is often helpful in identifying how the sensible weather might just play out...especially in the 2 extreme seasons of summer and winter.  It also affects the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is a tool that often helps in the monthly weather patterns that are likely to develop.  Although the equatorial Pacific has been rather neutral the last several years, we are now and forecast to remain in a weak La Nina pattern.  La Nina is a cooling of the central Pacific while El Nino is a warming of the ocean.  Below is a graphic of our most recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly.  NOAA has an 85% likelihood of La Nina remaining into spring 2021.  Note the cooler than normal in the central Pacific.  So I chose this as a factor for our our upcoming winter.  I am also showing a graphic of what a La Nina might indicate for the cold season.

OK...timeout to walk our dogs and throw some kettlebells around!  I'll be back...

Sorry for the digression...The final parameter is one that all of you reading this is one with that you are quite familiar.  And that would be the tropical cyclone activity or as most simply call...hurricanes.  2020 was quite an active year for named storms (the most ever); however, the overall amount of cyclone energy was not as robust as many years in the past.  Today, many storms get named that in the past would have simply been briefly monitored at best and more likely ignored due to their open ocean location and improbable impact to land.  In addition, pre-satellites era, only some wayfaring vessels would have noticed larger than normal waves at best.  But hurricane activity is certainly a result of warm tropical oceans and favorable atmospheric circulations.  And again with 70% of earth's surface being covered with water, I do look to the oceans for some signals for our weather.  This year we did have an abundance of tropical activity and that I believe can be a good indicator of what is to come.?.

So after perusing the data the last couple of days...not nearly enough time to thoroughly analyze all of the nuance that also needs to be included, I noticed 3 years that had similar oceanic and solar characteristics.  The abundance of tropical activity, an oncoming La Nina, and low sunspot activity were my chosen variables.   I only went back to 1980 since that is when the satellite era became prevalent though reanalysis is a skill set that is quite reliable.  The 3 years are 1988, 1995, and 2010.  They are not perfect analogs, but they are good enough for my hobby.  Then I used the Earth Science Research Lab (ESRL) website to see how the period of December, January, February, and March reacted to these factors.  Here are the results below:  1st Temperature...

And now for the precipitation...

The precipitation matches a La Nina nearly perfectly!  Wet Ohio Valley and wet Pacific NW.  Dry desert SW through TX and the SE.  The cold in the northern plains is a solid match as well.  However, the cold east coast does not match a La Nina mild east coast.  Also, with a warmer than normal ocean off of our eastern seaboard and the fact that we've had several months prior with above normal temps, I'd hedge on the side of near normal to slightly below than much below normal temps as the ESRL analog map indicates.  The precip matches pretty well and therefore, although we've had a dry last several months, a wetter pattern appears to be on the horizon.   Time will tell!

Since I'm back to Blogger, I'm gonna leave y'all with a song since I've had many tell me over the years that's really all they go to!  And since this about a winter discussion and forecast, I'll leave you with one of my favorite "folk" songs first performed by Joni Mitchell, but I like O Canada's Sarah McLachlan version a tad more.  Funny stuff!

Enjoy this beautiful Saturday...gotta love nice November weather!  

Smitty

AA:  Upcoming winter thoughts...You won't need to mow very much, landscaping will slow, the plow may need to be greased up for a 6 week period from Christmas to Groundhog Day and then again early March.