Get Ready!

You know...with instantaneous media nowadays, HYPE seems to be the norm.  Everything’s "unprecedented"; the "worst in 100 years", a "once in a lifetime", a "never seen before",  a "catastrophic and historic" weather event, etc...you get the picture!  I think social media has desensitized the populous to things that are truly worthy of these descriptors. From what I have read and seen over the past several days, the aforementioned descriptions are most definitely meritorious for this wx situation!  The data suggests this; the professionals' opinions seem to indicate that this storm will be "historic".   When I read these terms in the NWS discussions which are usually quite conservative in their tone, I do become concerned.  When NOAA hydro forecasters compare this storm's potential to Agnes in terms of its flood potential, sure I worry for myself and others' interests.  When PEMA and FEMA are activated 72 hrs prior to the storm's immediate effects, sure I am concerned.  When States of Emergency are declared, yes, I am again solicitous.   If  this storm would not come to pass, it would be a colossal failure of the entire process of numerical weather prediction and the weather models themselves.  I remember the "Superstorm of 1993" and the week long "hype" associated with its anticipated arrival.  The models did a terrific job from 5-7 days out on nailing the "Storm of the Century"!  It seems to me that when the wx variables are most extreme, the modeling is capable of honing into a clearer solution.  I have no data to support that; it is simply a feeling of mine that if researched might prove to be true.  So with the rock solid and steady performance of most of the global modeling, especially the Euro, and seeing a solution that looks like this for what now seems to be an endless week, sure I am concerned.  You just don't see this everyday!  This is for Monday evening...

Now with all of that editorial comment aside, GET READY!  What does that mean?  Prepare for power outages and everything that goes along with that.  Prepare for copious amounts of rain.  Prepare for winds sustained in the 20-30 mph range for nearly a day and half with saturated ground.  Prepare for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph routinely with a few rogue gusts approaching 60 mph at the height of the storm.  Wind forecasts are very difficult to quantify for the surface of the earth due to how much mixing there will be from aloft, local topography and terrain, etc...But here is a wind map for the windiest time of the storm from a model that is not too good from this far out yet...the NAM.  It is a higher resolution model that feeds back too much as time proceeds further into the future.  Below is 2am Tuesday morning...

What is copious amounts of rain?  Well, here is the latest from the Hydro-Meteorological Prediction Center.  Gut feeling, this is slightly underdone as many times the reality in PA with the upslope of only 500-800' from the Atlantic Ocean often leads to further rainfall and the modeling doesn't do well with that understanding.  Again, my opinion from watching similar precipitation feeds from the Atlantic over the years.

The confidence in that this will occur grows further with each passing hour.  When you see guidance clustered as we have the last few days, forecasting confidence can increase.  Here are the latest plots for the location of the tropical system as it recurves back towards the land mass.  Doesn't this, with a quick cursory glance, appear to be targeting KMDT?  It sure does to me!

And the latest official track from the National Hurricane Center...

Even without the tropical system, this front and upper air vorticity would spawn a feisty storm to be sure; a typical nor'easter.  But to have these 2 distinct entities phase, one being tropical in nature,  right in the Mid-Atlantic is truly a problematic atmospheric occurrence.  Here's hoping that everyone reading this fares well...

So enjoy your weekend, be safe, and Get Ready.

I'll leave y'all with this Rare Earth classic...love the hairdos!

Smitty

AA:  I believe this will be, from reading what all of the experts far more knowledgeable than me are quite concerned about this storm, a legitimate "historic" wx event.  

Rain begins Sunday...probably by noon.  Gets heavy overnight into Monday morning and becoming quite breezy.  Height of the storm will be Monday pm into the overnight.  Finally winding down Tuesday pm!

Be safe my friend.