In The Navy

You want extreme solutions, well here is one that is simply unreal!  The Navy NOGAPS model does not have a very good track record; however, it is still one of many global models that must be considered in solving this very complex set of atmospheric variables and how they will all play out in the actual sensible wx experienced here on the surface of the earth.  This is valid for Sunday evening...

It actually drives the cold air from the digging trough right into the low and has enough cold air to have it snow here around KMDT!  To be sure, if this model would verify, the mountains of PA would get another early season snowfall of epic proportions!  By the way, the Euro's earlier runs had snow for KMDT, but it has backed away from that solution on its latest solving of equations...

Maybe lost in all of this is the fact that the cold coming in with this deep trough is nothing to sneeze at for next week.  Look at the GFS anomalies for next week...and the GFS isn't really all that bullish on the cold advecting from O Canada!  The other global models are a bit colder and bolder...

There are places that are forecast to see their temps remain -20F below normal in the SE USA!  And here are the 7 day means for the end of next week!  Remember, when you average things out, that tends to minimize the extremes....means and extremes...regression to the means...all that statistical stuff! For the 7 day period ending next Sunday, man alive, next week WILL BE a cold week!

Also note that the snow is starting to lay down winter's white blanket over most of the western part of our neighbor's to the north!  This is the forecast snow depth by Friday morning...it is still October y'all! Climatologically, still a bit early for this widespread snow cover.

And just in case you want more storminess and cold...let's go across the pond to where western Europe is getting quite an early season shot of cold!  Scandinavia is looking genuinely gelid the next several days!  The map below shows the anomalies for surface temps over the next 8 days!  Wow!

So there you have it...the earth's northern hemisphere is transitioning into its cold season.  And along with that nature cyclical occurrence: the cold, the storminess, the battles of air masses, the excitement of digging troughs or the proposition of curling up under a blanket to a good book!  Whatever strikes your fancy just like this 1980 ditty strikes mine....enjoy!

And enjoy your mid-week...

Smitty

AA:  Still monitoring the storm potential for Sat. night into Tuesday...and almost assuring a turn to some nasty early season cold for the bulk of next week.  Also, yet another good tune!