Let The Winter Games Begin

As many of you are still digesting the cornucopia of nutrition from the last few days, the  Thanksgiving holiday has been to me a reminder that winter is about to commence. The onset of deer season with rifles.  The multitude of Christmas lights seemingly born from houses' gutters and landscaping.  The season of Advent and the wreaths and calendars that accompany the time.  It was also to me a reminder that the college football season was winding down with those classic rivalries such as Michigan-Ohio State, Florida-Florida State, Auburn-Alabama, USC-UCLA, Penn State-Rutgers??? really?  I digress; sorry!  But as I tap these keys early this final day November 2019, winter appears poised to make itself known in these parts.  It will be one of those "meh" storms as my former colleague likes to refer to these slop systems that affect us here in the sub-tropics of southern "Pennsyltucky"!  However, points just to our north and east will bear the brunt of an early season thumping of winter.  Disruptive to be sure; significant...yes, but not rise to the apex of crippling.  Allow me to explain...

First, the surface set up as of Saturday morning with a major winter storm driving across the country with wind swept snows and even some potential for severe wx associated with the warm sector of this system.  For us here in the east, the high pressure stretching across O Canada will supply the cold air both aloft and at the surface for our first widespread winter wx event.  Also note the tightly packed isobars departing the Canadian maritimes; a reminder of our gusty winds Thanksgiving morning here in these parts.  Take a look at the morning surface map...

This surface map is powered by the upper air trough and vorticity (spin) about 3 miles up...here's a quick glance at that digging trough energy for those of so inclined to want to view such things. 

Sunday 500 mb height anomaly and vorticity...


Monday's same parameters; note how the trough has "dug" further south and east towards the equator bringing the necessary ingredients for a developing surface storm to create some issues for us in the eastern part of the US...


As for how much snow and slop falls, that is always the tough part of the forecast.  I do believe that Sunday morning travelers around here will need to be advised of tricky travel, especially on the back roads and side streets as there is little if any antecedent salt residue on the pavement.  Best case scenario is for a quick thumping of 1-2" snow before the change to sleet and freezing rain.  By midday, even with the hideously low December sun angle, most road surfaces should just be wet.  However, Monday morning may also be a bit tricky, but less so I do believe.  The initial onslaught will be our most impactful...first the freezing rain model...that's just ugly!

And the snow and sleet...basically it's a "go-slow" and not a "don't-go" kinda set up for us; a different story however for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berkshires...

OK...I'm done.  A big shout out to the CD Football Rams as they will compete for the AAAAAA football title next weekend in Chocolatetown USA.  Well done coaches, players, support staff, etc...you catch the drift; a total team effort from top to bottom!

As for my parting entertainment for y'all, how a bout a secular Christmas ditty that's just a tad entertaining in my opine...

Enjoy this last day of November 2019...with one last graphic; November temps through the 28th.  It has been a cold month...

Enjoy some of the traditional football rivalries today...

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a slop storm for late Saturday night into early Monday morning.  Getting about 1" of total liquid precip with about 1/3-1/2 of it falling as some type of frozen stuff.  Let Advent begin!  Hope the Butkus dog left you some tibbits!