Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
However, I do think we will see some very light snow for Sunday, probably arriving in the pre-dawn hours and giving KMDT ~1" (MAYBE...with this winter!) by mid-morning Sunday. It is an overrunning scenario with marginally cold but dry air to the north and a rather moisture filled system shearing off to our SE. Here is the most recent print out of precip by the NAM by early Sunday afternoon. Most, if not all, of the precip will fall as snow, but not all will accumulate due to warm surface temps of recent days. It could be a bit tricky early Sunday morning on your way to mass, worship, breakfast, the beer distributor to obtain Super Bowl refreshments....or even if you sleep in! Just be advised...
But if you sleep in too long you might just miss all of the action! By kickoff Sunday evening and most certainly by Monday, it will be all but a memory...look at the anomalous warmth once again! The map below is for Monday...
Now with this "winter" of 2011-12, and I use that term loosely, there does exist potential for late this upcoming week and the weekend time period. If all of the potential comes together, it will be the largest snowfall of the season. The modeling is suggesting that a cold and stormy remainder of the month is setting up beginning with this set-up. However, the modeling has been suggesting this change for a couple of weeks only to disappoint those of us who enjoy the winter weather! So pardon me for being a bit skeptical...but here is the potential in terms of the 500 mb chart. We need to get these 2 energies (circled in red) to phase and ultimately unite the northern and southern jets to produce a major east coast storm. It is one of the first times this year where from a week out it looks somewhat promising. However, don't hold your breath! Cold is almost a near certainty; will it be stormy?
Here is a map from the GFS trying to sniff out the possibility of a storm with the cold & dry to the north and the warm & humid to the south. I circled the areas of interest...the potential exists; now if the atmosphere would simply cooperate and manifest this into a major coastal development! It might be an exciting week to watch...but the realist in me is reminding me it is the winter of 2011-12!
The snow depth in the US is absolutely abysmal for those of you who enjoy nature's icing on the landscape. Northern New England, the northern lakes, and the high terrain of the west...THAT IS IT!
However, across the globe since mid January, snowfall has been above normal. And as some of you are aware, Alaska has had a record breaking January in terms of both snow and cold. At least 5 climatological stations had their COLDEST JANUARY EVER! Take a look at the graphic indicating the above normal snow cover...Just like the market had its "flash-crash" in 2010, that was a "flash-freeze" back in December! Sorry......
Here is a map showing the widespread snow cover in the northern hemisphere....just not in our backyards! It is fairly extensive...even over in Europe and Asia Minor at present. Europe has just suffered through a very cold week and snow was flying around the Vatican, a relatively rare event for that region! Even note the snow in the high Atlas Mountains of NW Africa!
But the winter of 2011-12 has been very benign here in the lower 48. That has not been the case across the globe. Take a look at how temps have plummeted over the last couple of weeks! Wow!
With the above graphic, I thought this is as good of time as any to introduce to some of you and replay for others what I feel should be a classic in a few short years to come! It's sad to say that Michael Mann is a PSU fellow!
Enjoy your Super Bowl weekend!
Smitty
AA: Very light early Sunday snow...and then once again looking for winter; this time there is real potential for a sizable event near the end of this upcoming week. But don't hold your breath!
The potential for a Super Bowl snow is still very much a possibility as the modeling is correcting further north...as is so often the case. Below is the NAM for Sunday afternoon...it brings a small amount of precip up towards the Harrisburg area. I don't have enough time to show you the maps, but the 500 mb vort max is actually moving eastward and consolidating its energy a bit more to help "phase" the moisture with the northern jet energy and soon we might be looking at a 2-4" snowfall for Sunday evening......If I have time in the am.......or if much changes, I will go more in depth then. As for now, gotta get over to CD for the CD-CV round ball games.
I just want to thank everyone for asking about Kay and her CT issue. As I said, I am weak; she is strong! Things are on the improve and before you know it, she'll be back to her engaging "firm handshake"....or like Pink Floyd stated in Dogs...
And after a while, you can work on points for style. Like the club tie, and
the firm handshake, A certain look in the eye and an easy smile.
OK...gotta head out!
Smitty
AA: Still looking at snow potential Sunday pm...and a Giants Super Bowl victory!
...but it is now becoming clear that winter will arrive beginning this weekend and possibly lock in through most of the month of February. Again let remind y'all that February is our snowiest month climatologically and it is looking as if that will once again be the case in the winter of 2011-12! It is hard to fathom that we will be looking at some rather severe winter weather after this rather mild upcoming mid-week period. Take a look at the raw temperature deviations from normal for this Wednesday...that is 18-21+F over southern PA!
But when we look at the GFS ensembles, look at how we trend to a ridge west, trough east configuration by this weekend...that is a sharp trough which has the potential to spin up a potent storm that should affect us here along the east coast sometime this weekend. Trust me, the ensembles are all over the place, but the theme is for a storm to develop over the lower Ohio Valley and transfer to a 2nd storm off the the NC coast. We often get sizable storms in a synoptic set-up of that nature!
Then by the middle of next week, some intense cold will enter the pattern as cross-polar flow discharges directly into the lower 48! That map below is a very cold map!
Look, the AO and the NAO are tanking...the numerical modeling is clearly suggesting the trend towards cold and stormy here in the east. Below, the last couple of runs are off the charts so to speak for the AO as per the GFS! Wow!
And here is the Euro's interpretation numerically of the NAO for the upcoming couple of weeks...it too wants to drop off the charts...kinda exciting if you like winter storms.
I was even a bit surprised the discussion coming out of HPC actually discussed the possibility of an east coast storm this weekend. Usually, they are very cautious about getting the public up in arms about the possibility or even probability of an east coast event at this time range! This is their published map as of Sunday afternoon for next Saturday. Note the high pressure over Quebec and albeit a weak low sitting just west of the 40-70 benchmark! Could be interesting! At the very least, it is something to monitor this week and that hasn't happened much, IF AT ALL, to this point in the winter season.
One thing looks nearly certain...it will be colder than normal starting this weekend. And most likely, stormier than normal as well. Mix those two ingredients together and we get a rockin' February if you like winter weather. My fear is that this pattern locks into March and spring is once again delayed; but obviously it can't be denied! So we are halfway through winter as marked by this Thursday's celebration of Groundhog Day...an astronomical cross quarter day between the Winter Solstice and the Vernal Equinox. If you've never taken the time to view Groundhog Day, it is most certainly worth the 2 hours of your time.
Have a great week and good luck to the CD Rams in their quest for yet another District 3 Wrestling Team title!
Smitty
AA: Mild week after a feisty cold front Sunday evening; then very mild for mid-week...followed by potentially a rather wild time beginning this weekend in terms of winter weather!
