Christmas Light Takedown Warning

Hey, the NWS has a wx watch and warning for just about every type of wx event...so I thought I'd join the fun and games and issue an "Outside Christmas Decoration Removal Warning" for today, Saturday, as the high temps will once again try to achieve 20ºF above normal!  Below is the actual output from the NAM for the grid of max temps across PA for this afternoon.  Mid 50s are a sure bet...my take is the model is still just a bit underdone; not to the extent of yesterday where the modeling was busting by 10ºF (48ºF forecast vs 58ºF actual!). So get out and enjoy today's mild wx under mostly sunny skies, but with an increasing SW wind.

And from what I can ascertain from the modeling, we will be experiencing a roller coaster ride of temps over the next 2 weeks.  Yes, we will see bouts of cold, but they will be interrupted with anomalous warmth.  What I will do is show you the GFS' take on strictly the temps over the next 2 weeks in terms of deviations from normal or anomalies.  First, the initialization where we saw very real warmth Friday afternoon...much unlike the CD Rams field goal shooting Friday evening.  Just a few things to note...the complete lack of cold over the US and most of North America for that matter with the exception of AK.  The raw anomalies are +12ºC or ~+24ºF for most of PA!

Now for this Tuesday pm...again a ridge pops in the east!

This is ahead of a storm that will move right up the Ohio River on Wednesday bring RAIN for midweek Farm Show attendees.  Once that storm passes, a strong cold front will briefly send PA back to reality as the temps are now shown for NEXT FRIDAY...or ~1 week from today...that is some serious chill for PA for Farm Show Friday!  Temps will remain in the 20s all day!  Note the persistent chill over AK!

That cold will all be a distant memory once MLK Day rolls around...note the cold now being displaced from AK!

And by 2 Fridays from now, that cold will have unleashed its fury across the lower 48...but then the cold builds back over AK and warmth returns to our heartland.

Finally, in 15 days, here is what the GFS believes to be happening with the North American temps...look at the expanse of warmth over the northeast US!  Even New England skiing will be experiencing a pathetic mid season ski season...icy conditions without the glorious powder "normal" temps usually allow for the part of the east to enjoy.

A roller coaster of  temps...when it gets cold, it will be cold as the air flow is cross-polar; note the flow from the Euro (left) for next Friday-Sat period.  That is a deep trough with its air originating in the Arctic...the GFS has more of a coast to coast cold pattern.  Regardless, it will not hold as I showed above as per the operational run of the GFS

I show here the AO and the NAO of the GFS and its ensembles members.  The bold blue line is the primary run of the modeling...it seems to be in a fair bit of disagreement with its ensemble members as seen here...the operational is clearly the outlier whereas the ensembles keep the AO negative!

The same is true for the NAO...the operational is heading waaay up in comparison to its ensembles...

So will the cold hold once it hits?  The ensembles say there is a better chance than the operational runs from the GFS; the operational is a roller coaster ride for temps over the next 2 weeks.  By the way, here is the amount of RAIN for the midweek period...looks like a solid 1-2" band of liquid sunshine from Dallas to Dubois.  Some of that precip may fall as sleet and frz rain at the onset in the mountains to our west, but at this point, I believe that nearly ALL of the precip at KMDT will be in the form of rain.

My advice...get a tall tropical drink and sit outside this afternoon (after removing your outside Christmas decorations) in a southern exposed area around your place and enjoy this classic.  Because, if you can't get to the tropics, surely the tropics have been trying to get to you!

Enjoy the week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Another mild day followed by a couple of weeks of roller coaster temps.  Wrestling tonight?

Baby It's Warm Outside

58F was the max today at KMDT recorded at 3:14 pm local time. Although quite balmy for a January 6, it was still 9 degrees shy of the record of 67F which was recorded in 2007. That was the year of our greatest ice melt from the Arctic Ocean during the satellite era. Enjoy it as it does look increasingly more likely that winter will be coming back in spades for the second half of January. Saturday should not be quite as warm; however, it will still surpass 50F! Sunday through Tuesday will return to more seasonable temps, but will still be a few degrees above normal! It should not be until Friday at the earliest that we will experience below normal temps! So enjoy this nice stretch of winter weather or a winter lover's bane! Smitty AA: Mild and dry through Tuesday. Then some mid week rain leading to a colder pattern for next weekend and beyond! How's the "new" family addition?

Fabulous Friday

That is if you don't like winter weather!  With max temps approaching 55F at KMDT by 3 pm under a mostly sunny sky, people would be hard pressed to believe that the PA Farm Show opens to the public just 18 hours later!  Below is the NAM forecasted max temps...note that it only has southern PA in the upper 40s.  I do believe that 55F will be attainable under mostly sunny skies and a SW wind.

I also include how the temps will remain mild in North America for the next several days  as a huge anomalous area of warmth covers O Canada and the northern plains of the US.  The people of MN will be sunbathing next week!  That is just UGLY if you want winter!

And that type of unseasonable warmth will not promote the growth of snow and ice over the continent for the next several days.  Take a look at our paltry snow cover for this pathetic excuse for a winter to date here in the states.  O Canada is doing ok at this point, but with the forecasted warmth of early next week, it will be interesting to see this snow melt away and pull back towards the 50th parallel.  Note how the lake effect generously contributed to the meager snowfall in the lee of the lakes.  But most of that will be bye-bye by Tuesday as well.

But on the other side of the pole, the snow cover is actually quite healthy.

And therein lies the hope for some wintry weather in about 7-10 days from now.  The upper flow pattern is suggesting a rather deep trough here in the eastern part of the US, not too dissimilar from what we just experienced this past week.  However, the cold will be even a bit more intense if the GFS verifies its cross-polar components.  Follow the isobars "upstream from PA" and note from where the air is originating.  It actually moves across the frozen Arctic from Siberia and straight down the chute towards the Mid-Atlantic.  Now if we can only get some moisture to phase with that oncoming charge of cold!

I placed a black circle around the Barents Sea and wanted to show everyone how the remarkable lack of ice exists around Scandinavia and 0-45 E longitude.  This ice-free water is compliments of the Gulf Stream, a strong NE flowing warm ocean current that keeps England relatively mild as well as the entire continent of Europe for its rather poleward latitude. 

The port of Murmansk as seen below has had major historical implications during WWII and remains today an economic center of commerce and trade which allows landlocked Russia to engage in trade with other major economic powers, namely Canada and the US via the "Arctic Bridge" that would allow shipping from Murmansk to Churchill, MB. 

Once to Manitoba, watch the goods disperse across the continent!  Hey, global warming isn't all bad news!

OK...OK...enough already with the free-trade and my subtle hints at increasing economic activities to help stimulate this sluggish economy.  If only some leaders of this country would put a stop to their anti-growth policies and allow for increased trade and commerce without punitive taxation, many of of economic woes would be ameliorated.  Sorry I digress, but the models do hint and a changing AO and NAO as shown earlier today and below, but both are showing signs of trying to return positive quickly thereafter.  Remember, a negative NAO and AO often creates cold and stormy conditions in the eastern portion of the US.  Here is the AO...man look at the ensemble spread...GREAT UNCERTAINTY!

And the GFS Ensembles for the NAO...heck, this can't even GET NEGATIVE!  Look at the operational component, is that a positive NAO or what!!!  Another "ouch" for lovers of winter weather.

And if you need some convincing that the NAO and the AO have an influence on our wx, well here is the NAO and the AO for the past month and a half.  Let's be honest, the wx has been anything but difficult to take these last 45 days!  Since the middle of November, neither index has been negative!  Can you say 0.1 inch of snow in December, 2011?

I will leave y'all with this ditty from Al Stewart who is probably most famous for his 70s hit "The Year of the Cat".  But I heard this song years ago and recognized many of the lyrics referencing the north country.  So I will share it with you now...enjoy and the lyrics are provided for your viewing/sing along pleasure.

Your father sailed on the Murmansk run
To guide the flocks of the ships home one by one
Grey beneath the Arctic sun
Or the glow of Northern Lights

I see you have his photograph
His eyes are watching for dangers fore or aft
Trading days beneath the sun
For the cold and wintry nights of the Murmansk run

He never did come home to you
It's long forgotten, a childhood dream or two
But something of the cold got through
And it lingers in your eyes

On days like these you hear the wind
And feel the chill of the ice floes closing in
Trading days beneath the sun
For the cold and wintry nights of the Murmansk run

Save our souls, river of darkness over me
Save our souls, lost on the dark uncharted sea

Now you hide yourself from view
You seem to find it an easy thing to do
Trading days beneath the sun
For the cold and wintry nights of the Murmansk run

Save our souls, river of darkness over me
Save our souls, lost on the dark uncharted sea

Well you wake up in the morning on Hester street
And run to the factory, You can't afford to be late
Working every morning, every evening, every day
For your money, Yet there's nothing to save

Watching your life pass by the window
Feeling it all run through your hands
Counting the thousands behind in the lines
Waiting time for their chance

From Ellis Island, day after day
From Ellis Island, dreams slip away

Meanwhile from the market come the cries
Of every tongue and every nation
Refugeless refugees
Faces from the endless plains of Russia
Blonde Norwegian, dark Croatian
Songs in sad minor keys
Feeling the heat inside the furnace
Trying to make that break away
Reaching their hands for a grip
On the edge just to slip back again

From Ellis Island, day after day
From Ellis Island, dreams slip away

Ah well I've heard it said
If you just use your head
You can make your fortune here
One lucky break and that's all it would take

But it never seems to be near
Another day, another ship pulls into harbor
And the crowd spills down the gangway
Clutching their suitcases tight

Blinking in the sunlight at the door of the new world
They hold the handrail
With all the post thrown behind
Caught in between now and forever
Wondering just what lies ahead
Each one is waiting and hoping
The door will be open to them

On Ellis Island, day after day
On Ellis Island, time slips away

From Ellis Island, day after day
From Ellis Island, dreams slip away

Save our souls, river of darkness over me
Save our souls, lost on the dark uncharted sea

Enjoy your week's end and the mild temperatures!

Smitty

AA:  Mild weather for the next 5-7 days.  Friday will be in the mid 50s!  Cooler, but still above normal temps for the Farm Show Week.  Possibility of rain mid-week.  Then a change to colder...but for how long???

Looking For Winter

very brief post to let y'all know I'm still alive and well...and still looking for winter.  There is a hint of winter wx for the second part of January, but I do believe Farm Show week will go off without any real wintry woes.  But 4 graphics showing that the numerical modeling is looking for winter as well.  Remember, a negative Arctic Oscillation and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation suggests cold and stormy for the eastern part of North America.  So here you go...First the NAO from the GFS...

And its ensembles...obviously the operational run is far more bullish on winter than its ensembles members...

Now the AO from the GFS...

And the GFS ensembles for the AO...look at how the operational really nose-dives negative!

That is all...gotta go for a walk in the CDHS parking lot...

Have a good Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  Looking for winter...and for you you recent Daddy!