Impending Disaster??

I know, I know...Mr. Chicken Little coming to y'all live from Etters, PA!  But if what the modeling is suggesting verifies, south central PA will have bestowed upon it from mother nature some of the worst possible weather conditions for this time of year.  With heavy wet snow, the weight of the snow will easily bring down trees and power lines and large scale outages WILL occur!  With that said, just prepare yourselves with the potential of losing electrical power for at least 24 hrs as what the modeling is now suggesting is simply a recipe for disaster.  I do not want to overstate my position; however, I most certainly do not want to underestimate what I believe could be a crippling event for the south central region of PA!  The 1st map I'd like to show is where the NAM believes the heaviest snow will accumulate.  Note the areas where the lowest temps are being shown on the map below.  One can extrapolate that this is where the greatest amount of snow will be lying on the ground as of Sunday evening late.  28F isotherm is essentially bulls-eyed over Lancaster County!

Now let's see if the NAM is correct.  Here is the literal output from the NAM.  I highlighted 3 areas; the total snowfall, the beginning of the snowfall, and the heaviest snowfall rates.  Remember for those of you who want more than the AA, you can click on the graphic and it should get larger for your viewing pleasure!

Wind is also a real concern especially with the weight of the snow.  Here is a map showing the winds and the location of the low as of 10 pm Saturday night.  I don't think this is what the Bay City Rollers had in mind with their hit classic from 1976 (#1 on Billboard's hit list!).  That is quite a nor'easter!  At this point, cold air, from all levels, will be drawn towards the center of the low just off of NJ coast by less than 100 miles!  Quite the gale center to be sure.

And the Euro most certainly agrees!  I believe places like Mt. Pocono could receive upwards of 2' of snow when all is said and done. 

So let's see how all of this plays out.  If the NAM is correct, it could get ugly around here for the bulk of the weekend even though the storm is past just after nightfall.  Winds will be gusty knocking down trees and power lines.  Then, unseasonably cold air will be entrenched for the next couple of days.  But, good things come to those who wait.  As you can see below, temps will moderate to above normal if the modeling verifies and the upper air pattern is as shown by the Euro for late in the upcoming weekend and early first full week of November.

So I wish I could bring you better news....but unfortunately, this is what I am seeing.  I believe this could be an historic event; a once in a lifetimer meteorologically.  Please remember that climatologically, the sun angle is comparable to mid February, and we can recall some of the infamous President Day storms over the years.  Yes, the ground is warm, and the lower troposphere is just coming off of summer, but with the strength of the storm and the dynamically lifted air, we are going to see snowfall of unprecedented proportions with this nor'easter.  I marked with a blue "X" where the storm appears to be early this Saturday morning.  Note the 25 kt winds just north of HSE!

In closing, I'd like to acknowledge that for the 2nd year in a row, the Phillies lost to the eventual World Series Champs.  Being a National League MLB fan, (I despise the DH in the AL!), I am very happy for the St. Louis Cardinals as they played like champions for the last month of the season.  Had it not been for the Phillies hammering the Braves at the end of the regular season, St. Louis would not have even been invited to the postseason parade for 2011.  As fate would have it, the Phils pound their nemesis, and lose to their replacement.  Isn't it Ironic; don't ya think?  So a big congrats to the Cards and their fan base which does run deep across the country as witnessed by the hats and shirts seen sported in these parts the last few weeks.

Enjoy this ditty about St. Louis, Missouri and your week's end...and be careful out there!

Smitty

AA:  My best bet is ~8" officially at the airport by nightfall when the storm is essentially over and moving rapidly up the coast.  It should changeover by 10 am and snow will fall heavily for several hours through the afternoon.  Thunder snow is also a real possibility with this rapidly deepening storm.  Power will be out for many for several hours.  I ACTUALLY HOPE I AM WRONG WITH ALL OF THIS!!  Then, clearing and a bit blustery yet Sunday and COLD for this time of year.  Temps will moderate and the pattern will settle for early in the upcoming week as another storm appears to just miss us Tuesday-Wednesday just off to the east.  Then watching yet another storm (warmer) for next weekend, but the Euro says no at this time (as does the Japanese model!)  Have a good weekend my friend!