But It's Only October!

As most of you know by now, I love the winter season and snowstorms in particular.  With that said, I'm still hesitant to call for what the major modeling from around the globe have trended towards for over a week now....all except the lovely American GFS.  After this morning's run of the Euro, I felt a little more confident that a real potential exists for an early season, possibly once in a lifetime historic snowfall for our region.  After seeing the 12Z Euro and the finally the GFS, I am now quite confident that snow will fall in our area and accumulate several inches very quickly during the daylight hours of Saturday.  Most of the accumulation will be on non-paved surfaces, but therein lies the problem.  With gusty winds, a heavy wet snow accumulating on trees and power lines WILL DO SEVERE damage if this snowfall verifies!  Here's the Euro for Saturday evening...

And here is the GFS for the same time...

They look fairly close in their agreement!  Here is a quick look at the plumes for KMDT.  Note that most of the ensembles are all snow and the average amount of precip is over 0.6 inch!  Even at 5:1 ratios, we're looking at 3 inches of heavy wet snow on grass and trees!  Couple that with wind and we've got some issues.  Look for greater accumulations in the higher terrain of our region!.

Here is the NAM's snowfall ending Sunday morning.  That is quite a snowfall.  I believe the heaviest belt will be west of where the NAM algorithm has it located.  This is unreal....I wish it were January, I wish it were January....

As for Friday night lights, look for mostly clear skies with some high cirrus moving in as a precursor for Saturday's event.  Winds will be gusty during the day, but once the sun sets, they should abate and temps at kickoff should be in the mid 40s; nice fall football wx!  Take a look at the progs for temps and winds for Friday pm....

And now winds...

So there you have it...October's version of a nor'easter coming to the Mid-Atlantic.  For some a trick; others a real bona fide treat!

Have a great Friday!

Smitty

AA:  After a nice, but coldish Friday, watching a nor'easter crank for Saturday with limb busting snows on foliated trees!