This is a heck of a springtime storm system complete with heavy snow to the north and unfortunate severe wx to the south. There are distinct sections within the cyclone based upon varying dewpoint and temperature air which is feeding the natural baroclinicity for the storm's ingestion! The radar shot from below shows the complete system in its full glory!
And here is the current surface analysis in shown in relationship to the barometric pressure indicated by the isobars...the gradient as you can see is 2 mb per isobar...that is currently a 988 mb cyclone in its full glory and intensifying rapidly as it feeds on the temperature and humidity differentials...
I took a screenshot of the NWS watches and warnings as of Friday evening...note the tornado warnings in red and see how they correspond to what the numerical modeling depicted late yesterday as pockets of intense vertical upward velocities...the modeling is vastly improving the last several years!
Now look at the 850s from yesterday...remarkable correlation!
Some places in northern MI are expecting nearly 1.5' of snow if you can believe the GFS! Hey Myers, look at the Wasatch Range.....yahoooooooo! You can also see why they only run the ponies at the spa in August!
As for our wx, I do believe we could see/hear some pea size hail this evening with the passage of some of these potent, gusty storms. In their wake, Saturday will dawn dreary and damp, but a strong WSW wind will scour and mix the atmosphere and sunshine should return by afternoon with drying conditions.
The high temps will be achieved early in the day as a rather cold air mass will be moving in for Sunday and Monday. Monday should be the coldest day for the remainder of this "cold" season!
Saturday's temps are shown below for 2 pm...Note the very cold air just to the north and east of Superior...that is poised to move SE and graze us for the Sunday-Monday time frame. If you believe the Canadian and Euro, we could even see accumulating snow from a clipper that will spin up late Sunday afternoon...I'm not sold on that solution, especially for this winter season!
For those of you who are just a little winter weary....for whatever reason; I mean what winter?!?...Here is a little carrot that I'll dangle, especially for any of you who are anticipating a Saturday celebration of St. Patty's Day 2012! Look at the widespread warmth the GFS anticipates for y'all! Not only will you be wearing green, so will the earth in much of our area!
Alright, enough said for this evening. I hope everyone has an enjoyable week's end!
Smitty
AA: Volatile evening across the eastern US Friday night. Colder for Sunday-Tuesday, then moderating. Temps appear to be running above normal for the next 2 weeks. Here's a new twist, a graphic for the AA...80% likelihood of above normal temps...don't see that too much!
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