In Like a Lion

Although it will be a couple of days tardy, March will roar in like a lion with numerous severe wx signatures being evidenced on the numerical modeling for late Friday into early Saturday over the Ohio Valley.  This morning I showed you this map...this is a colossal area that is penciled in for a moderate risk of severe wx!

Now here is why...1st the surface map for late Friday.  That is a strong surface low over Huron with a powerful cold front stringing down SW towards TX.  Look at the temp gradient over the lower Ohio Valley with sub freezing temps over IL and IN with balmy temps over the Piedmont of the Carolinas!  A major winter wx event will be occurring while a springlike outbreak of severe wx will be occurring over KT and TN.  Welcome to spring!

Here is the 850 mb vorticity or spin to support upward motion.  Note the sporadic areas from MO to GA where pockets of convection will be spawned.

Also note the surge of deep moisture at the 10,000 ft level (700 mb).  Green supports heavy rain and with the vorticity, this should almost certainly create intense convection.  Couple that with strong forcing from the cold air advecting SE and the ingredients for a volatile atmosphere are present.

The 500 mb vort map also shows an elongated area of intense upward motion in the area of the front and thus severe wx is likely Friday pm in the lower Ohio Valley.  Much of the same area that was hit Wednesday will once again suffer the wrath of nature thanks to the volatility of spring.

Here are the reports from Wednesday.  16 unconfirmed reports of tornadoes with over 100 damaging wind reports is brutal on top of the 26 confirmed from earlier in the week.  Welcome to spring. 

And spring is notorious for its roller coaster swings in temperatures here in PA.  We will have quite a cold Sunday-Monday period before temps begin to moderate for later next week.  Here is the GFS' take on the temps for Tuesday; the last of the cold for the next 2 weeks!  Oh, we will fall back to normal, but not before a string of what I feel will be at least 7 days at a minimum of 5 above normal.  A few of those days will have temps close to 70 degrees!  Enjoy the first spell of true springlike wx!

But look how temps quickly switch to spring time warmth by March 12...which happens to be brother John's birthday!  Daffodils will be popping in the days surrounding your birthday bro!  Enjoy!  And frankly, I don't see any crocus crushers on the horizon!  This anomalous warmth just coincidentally coincides with our Daylight Savings Time weekend where we will spring forward one hour on March 11!  Can you believe we are at that time of year already?  Wow!

Note the anomolous heights as per the GFS and the Euro for the 8-10 day period.  The Euro is hinting that this warmth is transient; the GFS insists that it is here to stay.  Note that AK is once again bearing the brunt of the arctic cold!  When it is cold in the 49th state, it is often quite warm in the eastern US!  Time will tell...

I've been running silent for a couple of weeks just trying to catch my breath from a hectic winter sports season and quite simply......relaxing.  The wx cooperated as there was really no need to opine about any impending winter wx...winter?...did someone say winter??  So I just wanted to give a rather in depth overview of what I believe should be an early arrival of springtime warmth once this last pool of cold departs by the middle of next week.  As for running silently, those 2 words lead me to this 1985 hit from Mike and the Mechanics...enjoy this 80s classic!

And enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Volatile wx in the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.  That system will sweep a cold front through PA later Saturday making for a cold Sunday-Tuesday period.  Then spring will spring!