First off, let me just congratulate the CD Rams football program for achieving quite a milestone last evening at Hershey Park Stadium in Hershey, PA. Coach McNamee and his sterling and accomplished staff have persevered through the regular season and the D3 playoff bracket to create their meeting with the western champion, specifically North Allegheny, for a chance at state gold. Although not mistake free, and that is quite frankly a tall order for any level of football, the CD Rams played a solid fundamental game, shut down the rushing attack of the Wilson Bulldogs and came away the D3 AAAA champs last evening in what was yet another classic D3 final. Good luck to those tenacious Rams as they travel to Altoona next Saturday to take on the Tigers from North Allegheny High School. We can only hope that Coach Mac becomes more photogenic by next Saturday...I did say hope!
Before we leave the football component of this discussion, next Saturday evening at Mansion Park will be a cold one...NO DOUBT! It will be the coldest football game played this season by either combatant and possibly be the coldest day of this early winter season to date. Take a look at the 850 mb temps for next Saturday during the game. Couple the surface temps in the upper 20s with a rather fresh NW wind and wind chills should be in the teens for the game. What do you expect when you play outdoors in December in PA?!?
What should make this scene even more like an icebox is that there will likely be some rather fresh piles of snow surrounding the gridiron as a wave of low pressure will be forming on the first of two cold fronts to pass through PA this week and lay down a blanket of white from the mountains of VA and WV through MD and PA and up into southern New England. This will be our first bona fide snow event for this true winter season...the Halloween storm doesn't count for my wager with my parking lot compadre. Here is what the GFS sees as snowfall accumulations through Friday this upcoming week. Personally, I believe the model will correct slightly north and west and the axis of heaviest snow should actually be very close to a Cincinnati to Boston line. But from this far out, that is a very tough call to make.
We need to get the upper level vort max feature out onto the plains east of the Rockies and then see how and where the storm will evolve. As of this morning, this is where the GFS puts the southern vorticity for the forming surface cyclone. That is a rather fierce looking vort max around the DFW region for Wednesday.
That should create a surface reflection of low pressure to the east northeast of that region by later on Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday. The GFS has the best lifting at the 700 mb level to the south of PA. Again, it is waaaaaay to soon to pinpoint where this optimal lift will occur, but I believe it will be further north and west from where the GFS presently has it. Those "yellow" regions is where snows could fall at rates of 1" per hour or greater for a period of time!
Here is the current depiction of the GFS' idea as to where the surface storm will be located Thursday evening. Again, I believe this will correct slightly further north and west as the week progresses.
And here is the storm as it pulls away from our area and out into the north Atlantic Ocean. That will then allow for the Arctic air to move into the Mid-Atlantic and northeast once that storm departs. See the map above under our photogenic ball coach as to the enormity of the arctic air invading the lower 48 by next weekend!
This arctic air is being created by the snow and ice covered surface of our planet as we approach the winter solstice. The low angle and no angle sun obviously is ineffective at adding heat to the air, so cold air is readily manufactured in the polar regions at this time of year. Take a look at the current snow and ice covering the northern hemisphere of planet earth.
And now closer to home in the lower 48. Note the fresh snowfall from NM up through WI from Saturday's storm through the western plains and into the western lakes.
So there you have it...let the hype begin for our first potential school disrupting snowfall and the Western Finals in AAAA football, state semi-final game featuring the North Allegheny Tigers and the CD Rams...sounds nifty don't cha think?
Have a great week...and remember if you are so inclined to monitor Twitter and follow me @SmittysSynopsis, for quick hitter updates on the upcoming winter wx event.
Smitty
AA: Great D3 win last evening...and watching winter make a run at us this week in the form of a moderate snowfall targeting the Thursday afternoon time frame. Then it's off to Altoona to cheer on the CD Rams to support them in their endeavor to gain their place in the state football AAAA finals bracket!
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