Two Extremes of the Modeling

The HWRF and the GFDL are essentially at the two extremes of farthest east and farthest west with the upcoming hurricane track.  Most of the modeling is returning to a consensus path that I suspected last evening, that being a path adjacent to the coast.  Below is the latest updates of the models:

Below is the western edge of the guidance as depicted by the GFDL.  Note the eye of the storm is essentially over Lancaster County!

And now here is the eastern edge of the guidance as modeled by the HWRF.

I believe the truth lies somewhere in between, probably in a devastating paralleling the coast and/or cutting over the Delmarva at points.  The rain for us here in the Harrisburg area should arrive in the form of showers by late Saturday afternoon, then the storms and squally rains will arrive in earnest in the darkness of Saturday night.  Here is the the official precip forecast from the NWS at HPC.

I believe that is a fairly good representation of the rainfall totals we will see with a coastal track of Irene.  Expect between 1-3 inches of rain across our area with a few wind gusts over 40 mph.  That is what i believe will occur.  Sure, the 2 inch range is quite large.  However, hurricanes are obviously convective in nature, and if a specific locale finds itself under a band for a prolonged period, then 3 inches could easily occur.  And it's not necessarily true that the heaviest rain will be in our eastern sections, but it is more likely the farther east you go, say like Lebanon or Berks or Lancaster, or Chester Counties, you are more likely to get greater precip than western Cumberland, Franklin and Fulton Counties.  Here are the current watches & warnings in our immediate region.



As always, keep in tune, I'm in tune and I'm going to tune right into you...sorry, I digress!

Have a good Friday!

Smitty

AA:  Squally rains Saturday night into Sunday midday as Irene moves up to our east along the coast.