Latest Irene Data

Here are several graphics for your Friday evening perusal.  The first is the one I've been showing you all along and that is the numerous models that try to pinpoint the exact track of the eye of the storm or the center part of the circulation.  Note how they are in VERY GOOD agreement and take a track that is parallel to the coast.

And here is the intensity guidance.  Note that the modeling is keeping a strong Cat 1 or a weak Cat 2 storm.  Do not get fooled by only a category 1 rating as this will have very strong wind gusts far from the center of the storm.  This means that we may actually see gale force gusts for maybe an 8-12 hour period even though this storm will be accelerating as once it gets up to our latitude.  Here are the intensity modeling solutions.

And now the global models that are able to see this storm as a large pocket of warm, humid air and how it will interact with the upper atmospheric winds and steering currents along with land/ocean interactions and temp/pressure gradients.  It is actually an advantage this storm is so large in areal coverage so as to the global models are able to better solve the equations and create solutions as to where this monster will travel.  Here is the GFS model.  What you can't see is that this latest run takes the center of the storm literally parallel to the coast and then comes onshore right at NYC!

And here is the Euro.  It keeps the storm's path slightly inland, but its track too parallels the coastline.



I believe the effects here in central PA will be heavy windswept rains along with numerous damaging wind gusts.  I will keep my outlook of about 1-3 inches of rain, but again totals should be very asymmetric in eastern PA.  Get under a heavy band, receive 1-2 inches of rain per hour!  There should be a rather sharp cutoff of the heaviest precip towards the west and places from the Allegheny Front westward should receive little if any rainfall.  But even places like Altoona and State College could receive an inch of rain if a renegade band holds together far from the central circulation of Irene.  There is also a weak upper level high pressure over eastern Canada that will force some of the bands further westward than would otherwise normally occur. Here is the official forecast map for Sunday morning.  Thankfully, we don't see a 978 mb Cat 1 hurricane over AC, NJ everyday!  Pretty wild map....don't ya think?

So whatever your plans this weekend, keep apprised to the status of Irene.  I believe this will be a most disruptive storm for much of the population within 200 miles of the coast!  It is quite the blow!

IR satellite view of Irene....

And I'll leave you with the evacuation map of NYC!  To the left are the 3 zones of impact.  Zone A is now ordered to evacuate and potentially Zone B and C will be ordered as well.  It's of interest to me that the Aqueduct Racetrack is an evacuation center....$2 exacta Box 2,3,4!

Have a great week's end!  And remember, I like to hear your wx obs and experiences from this or any unique wx adventure you might encounter.

Smitty

AA:  Not much has changed from this morning.  Just some good graphics and if you're in NYC, you might be asked to evacuate to the Big A in NY City's Jamaica!