Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
It's about 16 days until pitchers and catchers report to their spring training facilities. OK...so what does that have to do with the weather? This is the point in the calendar where we usually are enduring winter's worst offerings whether it is in terms of snow or cold or both. Well, both are most certainly on the table, but record cold is lurking for these parts next week. Let's go to the maps...
In the graphic below, note the colors over Hudson Bay, O Canada...that is the coldest air in the northern hemisphere and it is poised to make a run at the USA...
Look at where it is 96 hours later...brrr! Also note the little "kink" in eastern Tennessee...
Well that little "kink" has the potential to spin up a nice little potent wave on the advancing arctic front that will make living a tad difficult in old Rocky Top along with the good folks around here in KMDT! Now it's a good thing that we don't live up at 850 mb...
...because -20°F is quite cold to be sure! And as y'all who read these regularly know that I like to look up at that level of the atmosphere to see where the air masses want to move without the effects of the earth's friction from the surface. That air mass over Ontario, the UP, and northern Michigan is the coldest air in the northern hemisphere at that point in time! Safe to say, the hearty people of Mackinac Island will be thinking of glorious summer temps in the 60s as opposed to what they are about to embrace! One of the more "interesting" canoe trips I've had was when we were told to "keep it in the inside lane and not travel any faster than 25 mph" as we traversed the Mackinaw bridge toting a Old Town atop a small pick 'em up! The winds that July evening were such that the trip to the UP is still well ingrained in my gray matter! Very interesting to be sure...looks like they'll be breaking out the shorts come Super Bowl Sunday on Mackinac Island!
OK Smitty...that's nice for the populous of northern Michigan, but what about us? Cold and potentially snowy is the call. Cold is easy; the snowy is a challenge for those of you wanting! When the upper air gets crazy in these parts, I've learned over the years to look at analogs...that being what has happened in the past may just play out again in the sensible weather here at the surface where we all live, and work, and play! This is the most recent correlated analogs from the GFS ensembles for next weekend...and there are 4 heavy hitters in this graphic.
Most of you remember the PD II storm of 2003 and many of you remember the 1979 PD storm too. Both were memorable to be sure. The 1994 analog is also rather intriguing...so for those of you wanting snow with your cold, there is most certainly some hope for y'all. Here is the Euro's depiction of snowfall come Wednesday morning with the high ratios being shown; it will be powdery on Tuesday night with the arctic front if it does indeed come to fruition...
And if we do have at least some snow on the ground, a below 0 morning will await us come later this week...just think you could really be enjoying some Chicago blues come Thursday morning so it's not that bad in these sub-tropical parts!
OK...I've depressed y'all plenty with winter worst about to pounce. So enjoy this uplifting ditty as did I looking for the version I wanted to share...Enjoy!
Man that looks like a ton of fun!
Smitty
AA: An arctic front will push through later Tuesday bring very cold air, gusty winds, and likely some powder to accompany Nanook from the North! Just wondering...you get your corn from a jar?
My song choice is easy tonight...We're Living on the Edge! As this storm has evolved numerically this past week, we here in south central PA have gone from 2'+ of wind swept powder to 1" slop with mostly a raw rain...the truth likely lies somewhere in between.
As like last evening, very few maps. But one I'd like to dive into...The Race is On...uh, oh, another song reference! Sorry, I digress...
If the arctic high ridges faster and further east than the surface low and upper air support; game on for a heavy snowfall. If, however, the southern low begins to phase with the cold baroclinicity diving from the north country and tries to attack & warm the digging arctic air mass fruitlessly, ice will be the call. Mathematically, I'm sure these software programmers are all over the thermodynamics; there is no question in my mind! Stochastically, a push here and a pull there is all that is needed for a boom/bust forecast! We are literally in the battle zone for precip types! The front thump will be the snow accumulation; sleet and freezing rain will rule the remainder of the fast moving disturbance.
And as mentioned before, clear the slop; otherwise plan on being a brick layer/mover/melter...If we get 4" of snow/ice, I truly believe we will see sub zero temps both Monday and Tuesday am...
Fun stuff! Go Rams and Chiefs!
I'm out...by the way...went with my 2nd song reference...
Smitty
AA: Gut call Timmy; you'll have 2-4" more accumulation of "stuff" than Kay and I! My field mower wants to do it when the ground is frozen this year...imagine that!
Guidance. That's what numerical modeling is...just that...GUIDANCE. If all weather forecasting was simply interpreting the models, it's not all that much fun. But to try to interpret trends, understand certain biases of said modeling, and ultimately understand the climatology of where one is located (I have lived here (KMDT) essentially all my life with the lone exception of PSU), now that is the challenge that I most certainly enjoy! Frankly, as most of you know, I view these numerical models of the atmosphere most everyday; not every run, but most everyday. With that said, this upcoming storm for the weekend has been incredibly consistent with the modeling in regards to the following: our area will receive about 1.5-2.0" of precipitation! All global and now recently regional models have been consistent that this will be a dandy for winter precip! But how does it fall Smitty? To the ground, of course, in various forms over the next 72 hours will be my reply...please let me explain...
A week ago, the Euro model hammered us with a 2' blast of winter's worst; all snow and I shared that pic with my iMessage group...because that's what I do. That got some eyes raised I do believe...including mine as the previous runs have kept this mundane winter to date pushing through MLK Day. But not so fast! Oh no; pattern change and quick it was. Within a day, all the global models had a similar fate; heavy snowfall for PA and points north and east...
Then the model game began; oh no...north; oh no...south; oh no...warm; oh no...Eagles lost (sorry).
So what's the point that I've read this far? After this evening's "skiff" as I like to call these overrunning events, the Saturday night into Sunday storm WILL be an ordeal! Whenever a sub 1000 mb (with juice) low pushes south of PA with a 1030-1040 mb high "bananing" over Quebec, be aware! I'm still looking at a Saturday afternoon-evening thump of snow, followed by a prolonged period of pingers (sleet), then sleet and freezing rain to glaze everything that will make Mr. Heat Miser quite happy! And then for some kicks and giggles, another 1-2" of wind blown powder being accompanied by the arctic emperor of the north. For what it is worth, I do not believe the mercury (Hg) at KMDT will reach 32°F until Wednesday once the precip begins in earnest (or in Harrisburg). And come Sunday, a biting cold NNW wind will advect flash freeze conditions into our region very quickly. So whatever is on walks and drives, get it pushed away so as to not have a glacier reminding you of the prior weekend a week hence!
One map...please understand this includes sleet, freezing rain (problem), and of course a heavy front thump of snow.
As always thanks for reading...and many tell me they like the music better than my Wx talk...so I hope y'all enjoy this; these chicks know how to rock!...Seasons change with their scenery!
Be safe,
Smitty
AA: Weekend storm WILL be the most impactful of this winter I do believe...comparable to VD 2007 storm thanks to the flash freeze component Sunday pm. Go Chiefs and Rams!
Just a very quick update as to my thoughts as y'all will hear many different ideas from many different sources...My thoughts are as follows:
1- Uncertainty remains as to frozen precip types and amounts
2- Plain rain will be difficult here with a big high to the north and arctic air pressing strongly
3- Confidence is gaining as to a very impactful storm Saturday evening into Monday
4-Very high confidence to bundle up and clear things quickly Sunday before a flash freeze occurs!
The maps...Euro ensembles as to the low pressure's location...uncertainty.
...and where it moves to 6 hours later...note how the surface low stays south of PA and keeps PA in the cold air, at the very least at the surface.
As for temps, the warmest progged by the Euro is Sunday morning where a hodgepodge of precip types will be falling in these parts...but the temps will be upper 20s to near 30°F...you do the math.
And by nightfall...well...brrrr...and this doesn't include the gusty NNW winds! A good time to watch football if you have everything cleared!
I am humbled by the many comments from y'all who read these and like to hear my ideas on things. The one adage I have seen fairly consistent over the years is "Predict the high, predict the snow"...and with a 1035 mb high in Quebec and and 1042+ arctic high plunging into the Great Lakes, cold air is abundant at all levels...so time will tell. I do think this will be a rather impactful winter event...and that is my call.
Enjoy this old jazz tune as did I looking for an appropriate ditty...
Smitty
AA: Still a 2" precursor snow Thursday night into Friday morn to our impactful snow, sleet, frz rain mess to concrete by Sunday night!
Just a very brief post to let y'all, my loyal readers know, that once past this weekend, the easy part of the forecast is "cold". The front part of all of this is the Thursday night warm advection snow that should be a nice 2-4" in our region followed by a weak reinforcement of polar air setting the stage for a slop storm that is likely to deliver snow, sleet, freezing rain, and end as drizzle. After that for the next couple of weeks, bundle up and buckle up...just a few quick maps and minimal comments...
First, the Thursday snow progged by the Euro...a similar event that we just experienced...albeit slightly more robust I do believe.
That will be followed by the slop storm for the Saturday night into Sunday time frame...this will need to be better studied closer to event...gut call; thump snow, sleet & freezing rain, end as light rain and drizzle...
Then here comes the cold...first for the AFC Championship game in KC...c'mon Andy, take care of those Pats...brrrr...
Then without getting into details...cold here and getting colder! Next week...(5 day average)...
And the following week to end out January...Barney purple cold is expanding...Not only that, the SE ridge is setting up a nice baroclinicity (storm track) up along the east coast. A stormy pattern look simply by noting the temps. Brrrrr...
FYI, a total lunar eclipse this Sunday night...click on the link if that sort of thing is of interest to you. You can go down many rabbit holes, but this one is a good one to investigate...IMHO!
OK...I'm out. For my Lanco pal, sorry about the cold; this could rival 1977-78 type cold if the meteo medusas have their way.
Enjoy Gordon Lightfoot...and your mid-week!
Smitty
AA: Thursday night light snow, Saturday night slop storm, then getting pretty cold for forseeable future...
As most of you know, there is a well-advertised skiff of snow to affect our area later this evening into the overnight...a likely 2-3" event for KMDT as the snow-liquid ratios should be quite high (~15:1) thus a 0.20" rainfall would equate into a 3" snowfall. Since the system is moving rapidly, the precip amounts will be limited, but nonetheless, a winter event to indeed remind us it is January! And I'm of the belief that the Meteo medusas are aligning to bring an onslaught of winter-like weather to the eastern US over the next 2 months. Allow me to show the modeling...
First, the very near term event as per the NWS interactive winter weather website...the mountains of WVA look to be the winners in this go around...
And after what got off to a rollicking start in November...note the North American continent...that did last until December 5, cold ruled the eastern 2/3 of the USA...
...December turned mild and much less wild...a green Christmas for many...here is the last 30 days in terms of temps above norms...not too difficult to take if you are not a fan of winter weather and bone chilling arctic air that invades from time to time.
But as most of you noticed, the winds of change began earlier this week. With wind gusts ~40 mph and wind chills often in the teens, the arctic hounds began to encroach into the US. Just a little reminder that "As the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens!" And the Euro seems to be in that camp...here is the next 45 days as per numerical modeling Euro style.
And along with that, the arctic blanket to accompany said cold...quite a glacier forming over Quebec and northern New England...as well as...gulp...KMDT and vicinity!
Here's the GFS ensembles through the end of January...
So from this hunt and pecker, I'm looking at a seasonal pattern change around MLK day that will remind us all that we do indeed live in a location that does experience winter weather, sometimes harshly, most times benignly, with our O Canadian friends sending us shots from their beloved Nunavut. I'll have Nunavut...thank you very much!
And speaking of O Canada...I'll leave y'all with this favorite ditty from a legendary singer-songwriter from the north country...enjoy!
And Go Eagles, Colts, Chargers, and Rams!
Smitty
AA: A skiff of snow Saturday night...then a gradual change to more winter-like weather with a likely spell of true deep winter weather through February...and maybe even into March? At least that is what the models suggest...
What a day of weather we experienced on Friday, the day of the winter solstice for 2018! From this point forward on the calendar, the sun will slowly climb in the sky until the June 2019 solstice. The days will slowly lengthen as winter's chill strengthens! (But that is a different story for a different day...). As for our ONE mere degree short of tying a 95 year old record for a max temperature, (63ºF was the high), we experienced warmth, high dew point air, heavy rains, and even a relatively rare December thunderstorm or two! The official climate summary includes all of these plus...fog. After a gusty and drying Saturday, things will calm down for Christmas week until another major cyclone develops over the middle part of the continent. That storm will be a pattern changer to bring the colder temps back towards the eastern half of North America. Onto the graphics...
First, the 1"+ of rain has the streams maxed out...again...most streams in PA running greater than their history for this time of year...
And my local stream...
And Greg...it appears that Penns Creek would be blown out at this time; its rockin' through the Poe Valley! Coburn to Glen Iron would be a fast run!
Yes...it's been quite wet! Take a look...first, month to date...
And now year to date...wow! The graphic below is the percent of precip compared to norms. Some places in southern PA have doubled their normal annual precip! For us in our region, we are looking officially at +25" for the year (KMDT's 30 year mean is ~40" per year and we are quickly approaching 65"!)
Here's what our wettest year (2011) looked like thanks to Irene and Lee and numerous springtime thunderstorms and in spite of a rather dry winter...
This week looks to be rather seasonal and reasonable for late December...high pressure seems to want to take control of most of the continent building from central and western O Canada to the east coast. A tad of unsettled wx in the desert SW and note the Friday storm still spinning in the maritimes. Christmas day. This shows the blocking that exists and could spell issues later in the winter for us. When the cold invades, it will tend to hold for longer periods of time.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is heading negative and that hints at cold and snowier times lie ahead. Note that back in earlier December it too telegraphed the cold that was in place for late November and early to mid December. It wasn't until recently that North America was flooded with Pacific origin air but that is about to change once again...I will only display the NAO graphic, the other ocean teleconnections are aligning for what could end up being a nasty January...just sayin'...
This is what a negative NAO creates in terms of temps across the US. The graphic below is from work done by MAD US Weather by analoging years that experienced a -NAO. Brrrrr...
OK...I've dug into the weeds plenty for y'all. I don't want to lose you, my loyal readers. I do greatly appreciate those of you who read these posts regularly...and to all of you, a very Merry (I do believe Green) Christmas. The Euro keeps the dome over the KMDT area preventing any snow here...oh well.
I will leave y'all with this Christmas song...my favorite rendition especially with Sarah Mc...I hope you enjoy as much as I...
Smitty
AA: What a warm and wild Friday! Now back to typical December weather. January does look to me to be hinting at a return to some nasty winter time weather. Merry Christmas my friend.
